On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 1 - 55

Published: Aug. 1, 2015

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality associated broad‐scale forest die‐off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic the Anthropocene—are focus rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability trees hotter pests pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management policy‐making communities regarding future risks. We summarize key mortality‐relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels vulnerability. Evidence includes benefits elevated [CO 2 ] water‐use efficiency; observed modeled increases in growth canopy greening; widespread woody‐plant biomass, density, extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; potential mitigation management. In contrast, document more rapid under negative physiological responses accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence rising background rates; projected frequency, intensity, duration; limitations vegetation models such as inadequately represented processes; warming feedbacks from die‐off; wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape but have not been discussed collectively. also present a set global drivers are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) produces droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand nonlinearly temperature during drought; (4) can faster drought, consistent fundamental physiology; (5) shorter frequently than longer become lethal warming, increasing frequency nonlinearly; (6) happens relative intervals needed for recovery. These high‐confidence drivers, concert research supporting perspectives, support overall viewpoint globally. surmise is being discounted part difficulties predicting threshold extreme climate events. Given profound societal implications underestimating highlight urgent challenges management, communities.

Language: Английский

---

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 1 - 14

Published: Jan. 1, 2014

Abstract Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference such studies. First, it proven difficult conclusively distinguish whether are genetically based or the result plasticity. Second, not change is adaptive usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that specific causal agent rarely involved testing – exclusion other potential drivers. We here review various ways which above been attempted, evaluate strength support each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets stage for 11 accompanying articles attempt comprehensive syntheses what currently known about responses a variety taxa theory. Summarizing relying on results these reviews, we arrive at conclusion evidence genetic adaptation found some systems, but still relatively scarce. Most importantly, clear more needed must employ better inferential methods before general conclusions be drawn. Overall, hope present paper special issue provide inspiration future research guidelines best practices its execution.

Language: Английский

---

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Science, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 354(6313)

Published: Nov. 11, 2016

Accumulating impacts Anthropogenic climate change is now in full swing, our global average temperature already having increased by 1°C from preindustrial levels. Many studies have documented individual of the changing that are particular to species or regions, but accumulating and being amplified more broadly. Scheffers et al. review set been observed across genes, species, ecosystems reveal a world undergoing substantial change. Understanding causes, consequences, potential mitigation these changes will be essential as we move forward into warming world. Science , this issue p. 10.1126/science.aaf7671

Language: Английский

---

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 733, P. 137782 - 137782

Published: March 11, 2020

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services in U.S. implications for natural resource management. We draw from 4th National Assessment summarize observed projected changes ecosystems explore linkages important services, discuss associated challenges opportunities find that species are responding through morphology behavior, phenology, geographic range shifts, these mediated by plastic evolutionary responses. Responses populations, combined with direct effects (including more extreme events), resulting widespread productivity, interactions, vulnerability biological invasions, other emergent properties. Collectively, alter benefits can provide society. Although not all negative, even positive require costly societal adjustments. Natural managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies consider historical future outlooks minimize costs over long term. Many organizations beginning approaches, but implementation yet prevalent or systematic across nation.

Language: Английский

---

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises

Annals of Botany, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 116(6), P. 849 - 864

Published: Nov. 1, 2015

Background Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth available data has allowed the use meta-analyses to examine plant–climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses revealed major differences response among groups, e.g. with respect functional traits, taxonomy, life-history provenance. Interestingly, these also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, observational studies. Scope We reviewed literature species' responses ACC, finding ∼42 % 4000 studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). review impacts phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant–plant plant–herbivore interactions, roles plasticity evolution. focused apparent deviations from expectation, highlighted cases where that were, fact, ACC. Conclusions found conventionally expected generally well-understood, it is aberrant now yielding greater insight into current possible future argue inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced order understand disconnects prediction, observation. highlight prime examples collection papers this Special Issue, well general literature. groupings/traits had mixed success, but some underutilized approaches, such Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, improved understanding observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we need for ecologists conduct community-level experiments systems replicate multiple Specifically, call development coordinating across networks field sites, both natural man-made.

Language: Английский

---

Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 9(1), P. 271 - 290

Published: July 6, 2015

Abstract Geographic variation in trees has been investigated since the mid‐18th century. Similar patterns of clinal have observed along latitudinal and elevational gradients common garden experiments for many temperate boreal species. These studies convinced forest managers that a ‘local is best’ seed source policy was usually safest reforestation. In recent decades, experimental design, phenotyping methods, climatic data statistical analyses improved greatly refined but not radically changed knowledge clines. The maintenance local adaptation despite high gene flow suggests selection to climate strong. Concerns over maladaptation resulting from change motivated new genecological population genomics studies; however, few jurisdictions implemented assisted (AGF), translocation pre‐adapted individuals facilitate planted forests change. Here, we provide evidence tree species show clines sufficiently similar average or models guide AGF absence species‐specific knowledge. Composite provenancing multiple sources can be used increase diversity buffer against future uncertainty. New will continue refine improve as climates warm further.

Language: Английский

---

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 68 - 87

Published: Jan. 1, 2014

Abstract The physical and ecological ‘fingerprints’ of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments taxa. We reviewed evidence for phenotypic responses to recent fish. Changes timing migration reproduction, age at maturity, juvenile migration, growth, survival fecundity were associated primarily with changes temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed formally evolutionary mechanisms. correlation‐based methods most frequently employed point largely ‘fine‐grained’ population environmental variability (i.e. rapid relative generation time), consistent plastic Ultimately, species will likely adapt long‐term warming trends overlaid on natural oscillations. Considering strong plasticity all studied, we recommend development expanded use capable detecting change, such as long term study selection coefficients temporal shifts reaction norms, increased attention forecasting adaptive response synergistic interactions multiple pressures be change.

Language: Английский

---

Long‐term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 20(1), P. 78 - 86

Published: Dec. 20, 2016

Rising temperatures are amplifying drought-induced stress and mortality in forests globally. It remains uncertain, however, whether tree across drought-stricken landscapes will be concentrated particular climatic competitive environments. We investigated the effects of long-term average climate [i.e. 35-year mean annual water deficit (CWD)] competition (i.e. basal area) on patterns, using extensive aerial surveys conducted throughout California during a 4-year statewide extreme drought lasting from 2012 to 2015. During this period, increased by an order magnitude, typically tens hundreds dead trees per km2 , rising dramatically fourth year drought. Mortality rates independently with CWD area, they disproportionately areas that were both dry dense. These results can assist forest managers policy-makers identifying most drought-vulnerable broad geographic areas.

Language: Английский

---

Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 30(1), P. 33 - 41

Published: June 22, 2015

Abstract Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species’ and populations’ ability Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement material from genome 1 species into another repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow mediate extinction risk consequences limited potential that result standing variation mutation alone, enabling quicker demographic recovery response environments. Despite near dismissal benefits hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined number case studies across different taxa suggest between sympatric parapatric sister within exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation represent an underutilized management option conserve evolutionary environment. This will be particularly true where advanced‐generation hybrids traits outside parental range, phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented this essay are meant provoke discussion how maintain potential, value natural hybrid zones, consideration their important adaptation

Language: Английский

---

Spatial and temporal variation in plant hydraulic traits and their relevance for climate change impacts on vegetation

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 205(3), P. 1008 - 1014

Published: July 2, 2014

Summary Plant hydraulics mediate terrestrial woody plant productivity, influencing global water, carbon, and biogeochemical cycles, as well ecosystem vulnerability to drought climate change. While inter‐specific differences in hydraulic traits are widely documented, intra‐specific variability is less known important for predicting change impacts. Here, I present a conceptual framework this trait variability, reviewing the mechanisms that drive consequences vegetation response performed meta‐analysis on published studies ( n = 33) of variation prominent – water potential at which 50% stem conductivity lost (P50) compared within genera functional types used by dynamic model. found ecologically relevant magnitudes, equivalent c . 33% genus, larger angiosperms than gymnosperms, although limited number highlights more research greatly needed. Furthermore, were poorly situated capture key across species, indicating need approach prediction impacts from trait‐based, rather type‐based perspective.

Language: Английский

---