Climate Change Impacts on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems

Annual Review of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 303 - 328

Published: July 18, 2022

The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services human society. impact of climate change on EBUSs the ecosystems they support is thus a subject considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses climate-driven in physics, biogeochemistry, ecology EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; present projected twenty-first century. Similarities historical among include trend toward intensification poleward regions, mitigatedwarming near-coastal regions where intensifies, enhanced water-column stratification shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty how will evolve with change, particularly sometimes competing intensity, source-water chemistry, affect structure. We summarize commonalities differences conclude an assessment key remaining uncertainties questions. Future studies need address these questions better understand, project, adapt EBUSs.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century‐Scale Warming in an End‐To‐End California Current Ecosystem Model

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through many biological and ecological processes. Ecosystem models are one tool that be used to simulate how the complex impacts of climate may manifest in a warming world. In this study, we an end‐to‐end Atlantis ecosystem model compare contrast effects climate‐driven species redistribution projected temperature from three separate on key commercial importance California Current Ecosystem. Adopting scenario analysis approach, measure differences biomass, abundance, weight at age pelagic demersal among six simulations for years 2013–2100 tracked implications those changes spatially defined fishing fleets. The varied their use forced distribution shifts, time‐varying projections ocean warming, or both. general, abundance biomass coastal like Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ) northern anchovy Engraulis mordax were more sensitive change, while groups Dover sole Microstomus pacificus experienced smaller due counteracting spatial metabolic warming. Climate‐driven shifts resulting food web interactions influential than end‐of‐century patterns. Spatial fisheries catch did not always align with targeted species. This mismatch is likely into out areas emphasizes explicit understanding both dynamics. We illuminate important pathways which acts context end discussion potential management future directions research using models.

Language: Английский

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A Dynamically Downscaled Ensemble of Future Projections for the California Current System

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: April 7, 2021

Given the ecological and economic importance of eastern boundary upwelling systems like California Current System (CCS), their evolution under climate change is considerable interest for resource management. However, spatial resolution global earth system models (ESMs) typically too coarse to properly resolve coastal winds dynamics that are key structuring these ecosystems. Here we use a high-resolution (0.1°) regional ocean circulation model coupled with biogeochemical dynamically downscale ESMs produce projections CCS high emission scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. To capture uncertainty in projections, three ESMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, which span CMIP5 range future changes both mean variance physical properties. The forcing constructed “time-varying delta” method, removes bias ESM resolves full transient response from 1980 2100. We found all agree direction offshore waters: an intensification favorable northern CCS, overall surface warming, enrichment nitrate corresponding decrease dissolved oxygen below mixed layer. differences properties arise region, producing different responses variables. Two display increase chlorophyll consistent combination higher content source waters winds. All southern appears be driven by decreased enhanced stratification, and, HadGEM2-ES forced run, nearshore regions. While trends downscaled reflect those force them, solutions differ more than

Language: Английский

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Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(22), P. 6586 - 6601

Published: Aug. 5, 2022

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution are primarily used understand scope potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential where why can give implausible results identify which processes contribute uncertainty. Here, we use series simulated distributions, an ensemble 252 models, three regional ocean projections, isolate influences uncertainty from earth system model spread ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine with different functional traits preferences more broadly address resource manager fishery stakeholder needs, provide true state evaluate projections. We present our relative degree environmental extrapolation historical conditions, helps facilitate interpretation by modelers working diverse systems. found associated models exceed generated diverging (up 70% total 2100), that this result was consistent across traits. Species increased through time related extrapolated into novel conditions moderated how well captured underlying dynamics driving distributions. predictive power remained relatively high first 30 years alignment period stakeholders make strategic decisions based on information. By understanding sources uncertainty, they change at forecast horizons, recommendations projecting under global change.

Language: Английский

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Projecting species distributions using fishery‐dependent data

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 24(1), P. 71 - 92

Published: Oct. 13, 2022

Abstract Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, posing significant challenges and risks for fisheries management. Species distribution models (SDMs) used project future the face of a climate. Information fit SDMs generally comes from two main sources: fishery‐independent (scientific surveys) fishery‐dependent (commercial catch) data. A concern with data is that fishing locations not independent underlying abundance, potentially biasing predictions distributions. However, resources surveys increasingly limited; therefore, it critical we understand strengths limitations developed We simulation approach evaluate potential inform abundance estimates quantify bias resulting different sampling scenarios California Current System (CCS). then evaluated ability changes spatial over time compare scale which model performance degrades between as function climate novelty. Our results show generated can still result high predictive skill several decades into future, given specific forms preferential low Therefore, may be able supplement information reduced or eliminated budgetary reasons future.

Language: Английский

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Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 21, 2023

Introduction Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure function, as well developing strategies adapt the full range potential changes. Methods This study applies NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method 64 federally-managed California Current Large Marine Ecosystem assess their vulnerability change, where function species’ exposure environmental its biological sensitivity set conditions, which includes components resiliency adaptive capacity these new conditions. Results Overall, two-thirds were judged have Moderate or greater only one was anticipated positive response. Species classified Highly Very vulnerable share more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize wide freshwater habitats; 2) habitat specialization, particularly for areas are likely experience increased hypoxia; 3) long lifespans low population growth rates; and/or 4) being high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such anthropogenic degradation. Low either generalists, occupy deep-water habitats highly mobile shift ranges. Discussion As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information both scientists managers they address long-term sustainability fisheries region. can inform near-term advice prioritizing species-level data collection research on impacts, help determine when precautionary approach might be warranted, harvest other management decisions, identify history stages especially effective protect restore.

Language: Английский

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Catch as catch can: markets, availability, and fishery closures drive distinct responses among the U.S. West Coast coastal pelagic species fleet segments

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 81(8), P. 1135 - 1153

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Fishers often target multiple species. More diverse harvest portfolios may reduce income risk, increasing resilience to climate-driven changes in species’ spatial distributions and availability. Moreover, different effects can be observed across vessels response the same shocks stressors, as fishers are heterogeneous. Evaluation of climate risk vessel groups within a particular fishery requires consideration heterogeneous impacts on availability species how such impact substitution behavior. Here we analyze historical forage distribution closure Pacific sardine affected landings per three coastal pelagic (CPS): ( Sardinops sagax), market squid Doryteuthis opalescens), northern anchovy Engraulis mordax) targeted by U.S. West Coast CPS fleet from 2000 2020. Using cluster analysis, grouped into segments estimated responses segment port area. Our results show that considering heterogeneity is essential development equitable effective adaptation policies designed mitigate these fisheries.

Language: Английский

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Understanding perceptions of climate vulnerability to inform more effective adaptation in coastal communities

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. e0000103 - e0000103

Published: Feb. 7, 2023

Coastal social-ecological systems are vulnerable to climate change with impacts distributed unequally amongst human communities. Vulnerability assessments, an increasingly popular methodology for understanding variability in vulnerability and its components, often fail include or recognize the perceptions of individuals focal system. Perceptions influenced by experiences, social networks, cognitive biases, differ from as measured subject experts. Because influence behavior, including if how people take adaptive action, a failure can lead ineffective adaptation plans incomplete system vulnerability. Here, part novel, multi-method effort evaluate California Current system, we survey fishers Washington, Oregon, understand their perceived investigate what factors drive views. We find that while there is connection between some known fishers, vessel size diversity fishing portfolios, most significant predictor higher was environmental worldview, specifically belief occurring. Motivation adapt also sentiment more urgent consequential than other problems; thus, concern levels issues compare challenges may affect success wellbeing. While just under half think they will be personally harmed change, generally were concerned about like costs regulations impacts. This assessment highlights importance communication addressing barriers develop resilient fisheries communities United States.

Language: Английский

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Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 211, P. 102973 - 102973

Published: Jan. 20, 2023

Motivated by a need for climate-informed living marine resource management, increased emphasis has been placed on regional end-to-end modeling frameworks designed to project climate impacts ecosystems and evaluate the efficacy of potential management strategies under changing conditions. The 'Future Seas' was initiated with focus three fisheries (Pacific sardine, swordfish, albacore tuna) in California Current System (CCS). This work leverages suite climate, ocean, ecosystem, economic models physical, ecological, socio-economic change, strategies, quantify uncertainty model projections. Here we describe components framework, considerations underlying choices made development, engagement stakeholders, key results date, including projections 2100. Our broad aims are (i) synthesize large body research that conducted, continues, Future Seas umbrella, (ii) provide insight recommendations those pursuing similar efforts other applications regions. In general, our indicate all species will likely shift their distributions (predominantly poleward) future, which accessibility fishing fleets, spatial quota allocation. For integrative climate-to-fisheries projections, recommend attention is given to: recognizing biases arising from differences between products used ecological fitting projection; how sources projection prioritized, incorporated, communicated; quantitatively linking scenarios – especially

Language: Английский

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Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(8), P. e0272120 - e0272120

Published: Aug. 17, 2022

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate have implications for the livelihoods cultures of communities. Harvested marine California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist individual but ecological human are linked expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods assessing fishing dependent within a social-ecological framework. We first assessed risk resources, on which rely, 50 years projections. then combined this with adaptive capacity based social indicators, assess potential ability cope changes. Specific (particularly Washington state) were determined be at mainly due economic reliance species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, higher capacity, these often not found most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain that risk, ecologically ranked category highly low indicators Southern California). Certain both catch composition socially (low capacity) leading highest tier vulnerability. The integration climatic, ecological, economic, societal data reveals factors underlying variable across U.S Coast, suggests need develop variety well-aligned strategies adapt impacts change.

Language: Английский

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