Tree regeneration in models of forest dynamics – Suitability to assess climate change impacts on European forests

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 520, P. 120390 - 120390

Published: July 5, 2022

Climate change impacts on Europe's forests are becoming visible much sooner than previously anticipated. The increase in natural disturbances leads to tree mortality and raises concerns about the forest's adaptive potential sustain vital ecosystem services. In this context, regeneration phase is crucial comprises largest adapt new environmental conditions with long lasting implications. Yet, forest particularly susceptible climatic changes due many directly climate-dependent processes, such as seed production germination but also seedling sapling development. Models of dynamics (MFDs) essential describe, understand predict effects changing management factors subsequently associated We review a large variety MFDs regard their representation climate sensitivity processes. Starting description underlying biological we evaluate various approaches taking into account specific model purposes, provide recommendations for future developments. distinguish between models based ecological principles empirical relationships. found an ample mix modelling tailored different purposes. conclude that current should be refined adequately capture altered trends. Specifically, refinement needed rely principals, they suffer from knowledge gaps underrepresented thereby limiting ability accurately simulate under change. Global vegetation strongly constrained by weak structure composition, need include more detail regarding structural complexity functional diversity. focused timber yield often strong assumptions abundance composition next generation, which may no longer hold true management. With increased utilization source renewal, dynamic representations needed. Our highlights necessity data basis close enable adequate incorporation parameterization involved This would allow patterns subsequent structure, and, ultimately, functioning

Language: Английский

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Will forest dynamics continue to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Northern Alps?

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(10), P. 3260 - 3274

Published: Feb. 16, 2022

Observational evidence suggests that forests in the Northern Alps are changing at an increasing rate as a consequence of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear whether acceleration forest change will continue future, or downregulating feedbacks eventually decouple dynamics from Here we studied future Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany by means process-based landscape model, simulating ensemble 22 projections until end 21st century. Our objectives were (i) to assess observed (ii) analyze how uncertainty translates variation disturbance, structure, and composition, (iii) determine main drivers dynamics. We found accelerate coming decades, with trend towards denser, structurally more complex species rich forests. However, changes structure leveled off second half century regardless scenario. In contrast, scenarios caused trajectories tree diverge century, stabilization under RCP 2.6 4.5 accelerated loss conifers 8.5. Disturbance 3 20 times variable than climate, whereas projected composition varied considerably less climate. Indirect effects via alterations disturbance regime had stronger impact on direct effects. findings suggest dampening within decelerate warming beyond levels might profoundly alter challenging conservation efforts ecosystem service supply.

Language: Английский

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Recovery and resilience of European temperate forests after large and severe disturbances

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Recent observations of tree regeneration failures following large and severe disturbances, particularly under warm dry conditions, have raised concerns about the resilience forest ecosystems their recovery dynamics in face climate change. We investigated temperate forests Europe after disturbance events (i.e., resulting more than 70% canopy loss patches larger 1 ha), with a range one to five decades since occurred. The study included 143 sites different types management practices that had experienced 28 events, including windthrow (132 sites), fire (six bark beetle outbreaks (five sites). focused on assessing post‐disturbance density, structure, composition as key indicators resilience. compared height‐weighted densities site‐specific pre‐disturbance qualitatively assess potential for structural compositional recovery, overall dominant species, respectively. Additionally, we analyzed ecological drivers post‐windthrow such management, topography, aridity, using series generalized additive models. descriptive results show European been resilient past disturbances concurrent albeit lower high‐severity other agents. Across agents, was greater proportion plots becoming dominated by early‐successional species disturbance. models showed increasing elevation salvage logging negatively affect regeneration, late‐successional while pioneer are affected summer aridity. These findings provide baseline future recent occurrence widespread region anticipation conditions characterized heat drought stress.

Language: Английский

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Micro‐ and macroclimate interactively shape diversity, niches and traits of Orthoptera communities along elevational gradients

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(5)

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Abstract Aim Temperature is one of the main drivers shaping species diversity and assembly processes. Yet, site‐specific effects local microclimate on trait compositions insect communities have rarely been assessed along macroclimatic temperature clines. Location Bavarian Alps, Germany. Methods Bayesian joint distribution models were applied to investigate how ecological morphological traits drive variation in climatic niches 32 Orthoptera 93 grassland sites with contrasting microclimatic conditions a steep elevational gradient an Alpine region Central Europe. Results Species richness abundance decreased gradient, both benefitted from warm microclimate. Interactive elevation were, however, species‐specific, partly mediated by traits: Warm facilitated occurrence demanding xerophilic late‐hatching species, resulting marked community dissimilarities at mid‐elevations where colder harboured only subset species. The latter mainly occurred low elevations together long‐winged Abundance peaks non‐xerophilic further upslope when was warm. Intraspecifically, body sizes wing lengths larger females, but not males, akin mean, brown colour morphs more frequent Main Conclusions Our nuanced results reveal that trait‐dependent responses play key role structuring gradients. Since preferences changed elevation, we conclude are narrower than range suggests macro‐ must be considered predicting climate change. Microclimatic contrasts among similar enhanced turnover moisture phenology, highlighting importance mountains for conservation as refugia diverging can persist proximity.

Language: Английский

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Legacies of past land use have a stronger effect on forest carbon exchange than future climate change in a temperate forest landscape

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 15(18), P. 5699 - 5713

Published: Sept. 25, 2018

Abstract. Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global climate system and are thus intensively discussed context of change mitigation. Over past decades temperate forests were a carbon (C) sink to atmosphere. However, it remains unclear which degree this C uptake is driven by recovery from land use natural disturbances or ongoing change, inducing high uncertainty regarding future forest sink. Here our objectives (i) investigate legacies within disturbance regime empirically analyzing two episodes affecting same landscape 90 years apart, (ii) unravel effects as well on 21st century means simulation modeling. We collected historical data archives reconstruct vegetation history Austrian Alps 1905 2013. The disentangled individually controlling for use, disturbances, scenarios factorial study. found only moderate spatial overlap between wind bark beetle early 20th century, respectively. Our simulations revealed about relationship episodes, whereas clearly increased impact second episode landscape. was strongly cessation historic while reduced uptake. Compared land-use had marginal cycle. conclude that neglecting can substantially bias assessments dynamics.

Language: Английский

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