Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 233(1), P. 119 - 125

Published: Sept. 10, 2021

Summary Seasonal patterns of water availability can differ dramatically among ecosystems, with well‐known consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Less appreciated is that climate change shift the seasonality (e.g. to wetter springs, drier summers), resulting in both subtle profound ecological impacts. Here we (1) review evidence seasonal being altered ecosystems worldwide, (2) explore several mechanisms potentially driving these changes, (3) highlight breadth from shifts availability. We conclude are changing globally, but regionally specific ways requiring more rigorous nuanced assessments vulnerability as well consequences.

Language: Английский

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New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Jan. 26, 2023

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of resilience disturbance and resistance invasion can aid in assessing risks prioritizing areas for conservation restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts 11 western is experiencing rapid due human population growth, invasive species, regimes, climate change. We built on prior use static soil moisture temperature regimes develop new, ecologically relevant responsive indicators both resistance. Our new were based water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions future conditions. asked: (1) Which best indicate resistance? (2) What relationships among indicator categories? (3) How do patterns vary area? assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) vegetation sample plots regional monitoring programs multiple each plot simulations. used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, expert knowledge assign types categories plot. random forest derive set 19 predicted categories. had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% resilience; 75% resistance). Top included mean temperature, coldest month climatic deficit, summer driest precipitation. Variable differed ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low indicated by warm dry conditions with deficits, moderately characterized cooler moister deficits. ecologically-relevant provide information vulnerability resources likely success management actions, be approaches tools restoration actions.

Language: Английский

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Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Fire Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(1)

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Abstract Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities declines in obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened area burned has increased some areas, habitat degradation occurring where post-fire re-establishment hindered by invasive annual grasses. coming the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire feedbacks, although projecting future dynamics requires better understanding long-term drivers across region. Here, we integrated observations with vegetation data to derive statistical model for entire region that represents how probability influenced fine fuel characteristics. Results frequency varied significantly region, our represented much variation. Biomass perennial grasses forbs, which used as proxies fuels, probability. was highest areas high forb grass biomass, consistent well-documented phenomenon following invasion. The effects annuals on were strongest places dry summers. biomass forbs at intermediate levels. Climate, varies substantially also predictive probability, predictions low proportion precipitation received summer, precipitation, temperature. Conclusions We developed carefully validated contains relatively simple biologically plausible relationships, goal adequate performance under novel conditions so useful projections average can be made given general changes conditions. Previous studies impacts ecosystems generally more complex machine learning approaches usually been applicable only portions Therefore, complements existing work forms an additional tool ecological

Language: Английский

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Divergent climate impacts on C₃ versus C₄ grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 379 - 394

Published: Dec. 26, 2022

Abstract Aim Grasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C 3 (cool‐season) 4 (warm‐season) grasses respond to climate change will be key predicting future composition functioning grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers distributions assess grass shift in response change. Location Western United States. Methods We developed integrated species distribution models identify soil relative abundance grasses. then created projections abundances under evaluated when where projected shifts were robust across models. Results Historically, occupied areas with lower temperature more variable precipitation regimes, while higher temperature, greater variability warm‐season precipitation. also narrower texture niches. In change, declined 74% areas, increased 66% areas. expanded mid‐ higher‐latitude increasing decreasing seasonality contrast, regions, but lower‐latitude, dryer regions. surprisingly scenarios, suggesting high confidence the direction these changes. Main Conclusions Findings imply have highly divergent responses that may result grassland functional compositional Increasing temperatures favour some grasses, habitat expansion constrained by conditions western USA. actionable insights for anticipating impacts on grass‐dominated co‐dominated ecosystems improving large‐scale conservation restoration efforts.

Language: Английский

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Combining resilience and resistance with threat‐based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems

Conservation Science and Practice, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 5(11)

Published: Oct. 10, 2023

Abstract The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat‐based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating depends on resilience of ecosystems. We used spatially explicit approach prioritizing management actions that combined threat‐based model with models disturbance resistance annual grass invasion. assessed geographic patterns integrity (SEI) identify core sagebrush, growth opportunity, other rangeland areas. identified ecologically relevant climate soil water availability indicators from process‐based ecohydrological models. SEI areas were consistent—the showed generally positive relationships They also complementary—SEI provided information intact threats, while responses disturbances actions. index provide basis conservation restoration determining appropriate strategies. difficulty time required conserve or restore increase as increases decrease.

Language: Английский

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Precipitation changes alter plant dominant species and functional groups by changing soil salinity in a coastal salt marsh

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 368, P. 122235 - 122235

Published: Aug. 18, 2024

Language: Английский

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Will trees or grasses profit from changing rainfall regimes in savannas?

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 241(6), P. 2379 - 2394

Published: Jan. 21, 2024

Summary Increasing rainfall variability is widely expected under future climate change scenarios. How will savanna trees and grasses be affected by growing season dry spells altered seasonality how tightly coupled are tree–grass phenologies with rainfall? We measured tree grass responses to rainfall. also tested whether the of 17 deciduous woody species Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index were related between 2019 2023. Tree growth was significantly reduced during spells. strongly soil water potentials limited wet season. Grasses can rapidly recover after evapotranspiration in both seasons. leaf flushing commenced before onset date little subsequent flushing. grew when moisture became available regardless Our findings suggest that increased spell length frequency may slow down some savannas, which together longer seasons allow an advantage over C 3 plants advantaged rising CO 2 levels.

Language: Английский

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Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(24)

Published: June 3, 2024

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, predominant approach used quantify this threat, presumes that individuals populations respond variability and according species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such at cool edge a distribution should benefit warming (the “leading edge”), whereas warm suffer “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series aridland pine ( Pinus edulis ) collected 977 locations across distribution, we found trees everywhere grow less warmer-than-average drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates entire with warming—the is trailing edge. Species-level variation are opposite sign individual-scale time-varying for approximately half respect majority precipitation. These findings, added evidence literature scale-dependent hundreds species, suggest correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail accurately represent how will be impacted by changing climate. A view impact on biodiversity highlights transient risk extinction hidden inside evolution rescuing species whenever local exceeds tolerances.

Language: Английский

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Community-level foliar stable carbon isotope is dominantly influenced by leaf functional traits in dry Inner Mongolia steppes

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: April 5, 2025

Language: Английский

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Cultivation of New Crops Under Changing Climate

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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