The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long‐term forest dynamics

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 110(10), P. 2288 - 2307

Published: Aug. 26, 2022

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such now available for 50 years, but currently existing diversity model formulations and its evolution over time poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis 28 models, focusing were used past five years studies. We defined 52 attributes groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality soil moisture) characterized each according these attributes. Analyses complexity included hierarchical cluster analysis redundancy analysis.Model evolved considerably years. Increases largest growth processes, while modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model was lowest at scale, highest landscape scale. identified distinct clusters ranging very simple where specific attribute rendered complex manner feature high across all attributes.Most use today not balanced level with which they represent different processes. is result purposes, also reflects legacies code, modelers' preferences, 'prevailing spirit epoch'. The lack firm theories, laws 'first principles' ecology provides degrees freedom development, results responsibilities developers need rigorous evaluation.

Language: Английский

---

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(21), P. 6106 - 6119

Published: June 14, 2023

Abstract Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is period following snow melt and prior leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive wildfire ignition spread. The goal this study was characterize duration, timing, proneness spring window across Canada assess link between phenological variables incidence springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed cover greenup data identify annual for five ecozones from 2001 2021 then seasonality starts (by cause) fire‐conducive weather in relation window, averaged over 21‐year period. conducted path analysis concomitantly evaluate influence window's timing greenup, on number Results show that characteristics windows vary substantially year among geographic zones, with interior west having longest most spread and, accordingly, greatest activity. also provide support belief generally promotes wind‐driven, rather than drought‐driven analyses idiosyncratic behavior ecozones, but, general, season mainly driven whereas wildfires mostly responds duration frequency weather. results allows us better understand anticipate biome‐wide changes projected northern North America.

Language: Английский

---

Developing crown width model for mixed forests using soil, climate and stand factors

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 112(2), P. 427 - 442

Published: Jan. 3, 2024

Abstract The tree crown is a useful measure of vigour and highly relevant to tree's environmental adaptability. Crown allometry depends on stand conditions. Several studies have focussed the effects climate change competitive intensity crown, but regulatory role soil resources diversity carbon allocation has been neglected. Data from 20,994 trees in 232 mixed forests collected between 2011 2019 were located near four major mountain ranges northeast China. proposed width model includes developmental stage, soil, climate, competition intensity, species mixture, diversity, structural their interactions. We observed that cross‐species allometric scaling exponent does not conform universal law. Our results showed increased with increasing bulk density, quadratic mean diameter coefficient variation decreased de Martonne aridity index, basal area, Simpson index mixture. interaction density had significant negative effect width. influence particular factor within term was modulated by gradients other factors. Furthermore, contributed more modelling than greater diversity. Synthesis . provide new insights into variability under global change, which critical for improving regional estimates forest biomass stocks.

Language: Английский

---

Climate sensitive growth and yield models in Canadian forestry: Challenges and opportunities

The Forestry Chronicle, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 100(1), P. 88 - 106

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

Growth and yield models in forest management planning are used to project future conditions estimate quantities such as wood volume biomass. These crucial for assessing sustainability, however, some currently Canada do not adequately account climate other environmental variables, which limits their effectiveness under a changing climate. Climate-sensitive growth (CSGYMs) therefore urgently needed support decisions. The Canadian Forest Service (CFS) has developed strategic plan advance climate-sensitive modeling through collaboration with provincial territorial agencies, well partners. primary objective of this is provide national-level modelling approach predicting managing growth, mortality, ecosystem services. sensitive initiative emphasizes collaboration, open data, open-source code principles ensure widespread accessibility uptake models, thus contributing the sustainable resources. This technical review reports on status applied each province territory, assesses level sensitivity associated these synthesizes relevant approaches input data required implement into suggests possible pathways achieving CSGYM at national scale. Widespread will be key advancing development CSGYMs.

Language: Английский

---

The 2023 wildfire season in Québec: an overview of extreme conditions, impacts, lessons learned and considerations for the future

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Abstract The 2023 wildfire season in Québec set records due to extreme warm and dry conditions, burning 4.5 million hectares indicating persistent escalating impacts associated with climate change. study reviews the unusual weather conditions that led fires, discussing their extensive on forest sector, fire management, boreal caribou habitats, particularly profound effects First Nation communities. wildfires significant declines productivity timber supply, overwhelming management resources, necessitating widespread evacuations. territories were dramatically altered, facing severe air quality issues disruptions. While modest across province, broader ecological, economical, social repercussions considerable. To mitigate future seasons, suggests changes practices increase resilience resistance, adapting industrial structures new supplies, enhancing suppression risk strategies. It calls for a comprehensive, unified approach incorporates lessons from accounts ongoing underscores urgent need detailed planning proactive measures reduce growing risks of changing climate.

Language: Английский

---

A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 53(8), P. 556 - 578

Published: March 23, 2023

Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and sector to climate change are key considering heterogeneity impacts as well fact that risks, opportunities, adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide Integrated Assessment on Quebec's forests, a work involved several research teams focused commercial forests potential solutions. Our showed will alter ecological processes within forests. These changes result in important modifications landscapes. Harvest cumulate with effects further future landscapes, which also have consequences wildlife habitats (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget, variety landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The be crucial mitigate ecosystem goods services improve their resilience. Moving forward, broad range measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should explored help strike balance among social, ecological, economic values. We conclude without adaptation, strong negative likely affect

Language: Английский

---

Converging and diverging burn rates in North American boreal forests from the Little Ice Age to the present

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(12), P. 1184 - 1193

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Warning This article contains terms, descriptions, and opinions used for historical context that may be culturally sensitive some readers. Background Understanding drivers of boreal forest dynamics supports adaptation strategies in the climate change. Aims We aimed to understand how burn rates varied since early 1700s North American forests. Methods 16 fire-history study sites distributed across such forests investigated variation period spanning 1700–1990. These were benchmarked against recent estimated modern 1980–2020 using various data sources. Key results Burn during most showed a declining trend, particularly mid 1900s. Compared period, less variable lower sites. Mean presented divergent trends among eastern versus northwestern sites, with increasing mean Conclusions The synchronicity suggests large spatial patterns atmospheric conditions drove addition regional changes land use like fire exclusion suppression. Implications Low Canadian continue unless change overrides capacity suppress fire.

Language: Английский

---

Long-Term Impacts of Forest Management Practices under Climate Change on Structure, Composition, and Fragmentation of the Canadian Boreal Landscape

Forests, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(8), P. 1292 - 1292

Published: Aug. 15, 2022

Forest harvesting and fire are major disturbances in boreal forests. has modified stand successional pathways, which led to compositional changes from the original conifer-dominated forests predominantly mixed hardwood Boreal regimes expected change with future climate change. Using LANDIS-II spatially explicit landscape model, we evaluated effects of forest management scenarios projected under northeastern Canadian forests, determined subsequent alteration stand- landscape-level composition, succession, spatial configuration We observed that, contrast pathways that followed fire, favored a prevalence shade-intolerant hardwoods for up 300 y after harvesting. This trend was exacerbated where became dominated by species, particularly ecoregions these species were found currently low abundance. Our results highlight failure existing emulate natural disturbance on composition configuration. illustrates risks maintaining ecosystem goods services over long term exacerbation this context

Language: Английский

---

Effects of climate and soil variables on a simultaneous crown radius model system: a case study for Korean pine plantations in Northeast China

Forestry An International Journal of Forest Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Abstract Crown radius (CR) and crown width are fundamental indicators used to describe tree sizes widely included as predictors in growth yield models. is the arithmetic average of two perpendicular diameters each other, obtained from measurements four radii: east, south, west, north. Climate change soil variations influence physiological activities trees, thereby impacting development. However, most CR studies do not quantify impact climate factors on CR. In this study, we developed a nonlinear mixed-effects simultaneous model system address above problems. This study 7188 trees 98 plantation plots Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) northeast China. The results showed that (extreme temperature precipitation) (total nitrogen) variables improved performance system. large-sized was more sensitive compared smaller trees. Incorporating plot-level random effects into both fitting accuracy predictive width. Our provide new insights environmental variability planted forests suggest integrating modeling can improve results. These findings may become relevant for improving forest management strategies under changing conditions.

Language: Английский

---

Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(11), P. 2330 - 2348

Published: Oct. 9, 2022

Abstract Aim Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometres this century. We simulated potential migration, accounting various traits that affect species' ability track habitat. Location Eastern Canada, covering ~3.7 million km 2 . Methods migration‐constrained range shifts through 2100 using a hybrid approach combining projections based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) three time periods and species modelling approaches with process‐based parameterized data related dispersal generation time. developed unique “migration kernel” uses seed observed migration velocities obtain kernel shape probabilities each tree species. then calculated lags between the limits obtained simulations Results All demonstrated northward at leading edge their 2100, but magnitude rate varied by period. Climatically were found be north across both RCPs, increasing On average, remained within declined more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, large areas rear becoming partially or completely unsuitable many Main conclusions projected far exceeded all 10 species, particularly temperate This study underlines limited extent which will climate change via natural migration. Integrating velocities, SDM outputs allows realistic evaluations may help orient forest conservation restoration efforts.

Language: Английский

---