Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal

One Earth, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(12), P. 1638 - 1651

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Global climate-change overshoot scenarios, where warming exceeds Paris Agreement limits before being brought back down, are highly dependent on land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). In the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), such scenarios supported by optimistic global assessments of technical and economic potential for CDR. However, a further type potential—the "feasible" potential, which includes socio-cultural, environmental, institutional factors—is noted in AR6 but not quantified. Here, we set out research frameworks to work toward quantification this feasible potential. We first argue that quantifying will substantially reduce current assessed CDR Second, demonstrate how transdisciplinary methods improving understanding feasibility constraints Third, explore synthesizing these advances during next IPCC assessment process. conclude community should carefully consider use techno-economic evidence policymakers.

Language: Английский

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X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(22), P. 5079 - 5115

Published: Nov. 18, 2024

Abstract. Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing Earth system from data-driven perspective. We describe first global products (called X-BASE) newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement previous generation FLUXCOM terms flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE are comprised estimates CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), time novel, fully transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) temporal (hourly) resolution. NEE −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr−1 period 2001–2020, showing much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared versions FLUXCOM. improvement was likely only possible thanks international effort increase precision collection processing pipelines, as well extension more site years resulting wider coverage bioclimatic conditions. However, shows very low interannual variability, which common state-of-the-art flux remains scientific challenge. With 125 2.1 same period, GPP slightly than estimates, mostly temperate boreal areas. amounts 74.7×103 0.9×103 km3 globally 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation many dry areas, indicating overestimation these regions. On average 57 % estimated be transpiration, good agreement isotope-based approaches, land surface models. Despite considerable improvements products, further opportunities development exist. Pathways exploration include methodological choices selection satellite observations, their ingestion into configuration machine learning methods. For this, new FLUXCOM-X framework specifically designed have necessary experiment, diagnose, converge accurate estimates.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2022

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of dioxide (CO

Language: Английский

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Climate-Smart Forestry: Promise and risks for forests, society, and climate

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(6), P. e0000212 - e0000212

Published: June 7, 2023

Climate change is presenting a global challenge to society and ecosystems. This changing long-standing methods determine the values of forests include their role in climate mitigation adaptation, alongside traditional forest products services. Forests have become increasingly important dialogues, beyond international negotiations, because framing as Natural Solution (NCS) or Nature-Based (NBS). In turn, term “Climate-Smart Forestry” (CSF) has recently entered vernacular myriad disciplines decision-making circles espousing linkage between climate. new emphasis on forestry wide range interpretations applications. review finds that CSF remains loosely defined inconsistently applied. Adding further confusion, it unclear how existing guidance sustainable management (SFM) relevant might be enhanced principles, including those strive for demonstrable carbon benefits terms sequestration storage. To contribute useful shared understanding CSF, this paper (1) assesses current definitions (2) explores gaps potential risks, (3) presents definition expand clarify (4) sources evidence.

Language: Английский

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Three Decades of Wetland Methane Surface Flux Modeling by Earth System Models‐Advances, Applications, and Challenges

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(3)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) simulate the exchange of mass and energy between land surface atmosphere, with a key focus on modeling natural greenhouse gas feedbacks. Methane is second most important after carbon dioxide. There are growing concerns over rapidly increasing methane concentration in underscoring need for accurate global its emissions using ESMs. Of multitude sources globally, wetlands largest emitters methane, leading to significant efforts targeting their representation ESMs special emissions. In this review, we first provide historical overview including wetland‐methane components how approaches have evolved time. Second, discuss recent advancements that show promise improvements predictions, namely coupling atmospheric modules ESMs, microtopography transport mechanisms, resolution microbial processes at different spatial‐temporal scales, improved mapping wetland area extent across types. Third, shed light challenges hindering estimations emissions, as shown by consistent discrepancy bottom‐up top‐down models' predictions. Finally, emphasize more detailed biogeochemistry dynamic hydrology while resolving within‐wetland vegetation heterogeneity should improve model especially when coupled expanding ground‐based measurement networks high‐resolution remote sensing methane‐relevant variables, such water elevation, table depth, concentration.

Language: Английский

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Nature-based solutions experiences: A systematic literature review for public policies

Nature-Based Solutions, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5, P. 100121 - 100121

Published: April 1, 2024

This paper made a systematic literature review about Nature-based Solutions and public policies worldwide, considering the Web of Science database. The study proposal is to enable others NbS for climate change. Based on PRISMA PICO methodology, 55 final documents were analyzed. papers mostly addressed locations in northern hemisphere, adopted different methodologies mainly related Sustainable Development Goal 11 13. approach object those commonly infrastructure-related or ecosystem-based, representing 63,7 % papers. present found that there no preferred policy. policy must be performed specificities, adaptation intended, change effects addressed. proved gives wide range opportunities face challenges, with affordable solutions.

Language: Английский

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How does uncertainty of soil organic carbon stock affect the calculation of carbon budgets and soil carbon credits for croplands in the U.S. Midwest?

Geoderma, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 429, P. 116254 - 116254

Published: Nov. 24, 2022

Cropland carbon budget depicts the amount of flowing in and out agroecosystems changes stocks soil living biomass during same period. Soil credit is additional change stock under certain farming practices compared with business-as-usual practices. Accurately calculating cropland critical to assessing climate mitigation potential agroecosystems. The calculation sensitive local climatic conditions, especially initial organic (SOC) stock, which determined by both SOC concentration (SOC%) bulk density (Bulk_Density). data are either from sampling or gridded public survey data. In agroecosystem models, a key model input for quantifying credit. However, various types degrees uncertainties exist datasets, propagate quantification change. particular, large discrepancy found two widely used datasets — Rapid Carbon Assessment dataset (RaCA) Gridded Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO) U.S. Midwest, relative difference (quantified using Normalized Root Mean Square Error, NRMSE) 48.0% 0–30 cm between datasets. It remains largely unclear how uncertainty affects To address this question, we well-validated process-based model, ecosys, assess impacts on Midwestern corn-soybean rotation systems. Our results reveal following findings: (1) A sizable exists simulated gSSURGO RaCA their SOC% Bulk_Density as inputs, Pearson correlation coefficient (r) only 0.4 (ΔSOC) these different (2) Simulated components were more than Bulk_Density. For example, upper lower quartiles multi-year averaged ΔSOC −29.8 4.8 gC/m2/year selected counties respectively, an 13.7 0.7 induced Bulk_Density, respectively. (3) Both its negatively correlated SOC%, whereas was air temperature, positively temperature. (4) calculated credits much smaller absolute budgets assuming level inputs. Specifically, our assessment comparing planting cover crops vs no crop, less 4% (relative quantified value credits) 90% cases. analysis highlights that high accuracy measurement inputs needed budgets; however, current publicly available (e.g., gSSURGO) suitable credits.

Language: Английский

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Methods for determining the CO2 removal capacity of enhanced weathering in agronomic settings

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: Dec. 16, 2022

Recent analysis by the IPCC suggests that, across an array of scenarios, both GHG emissions reductions and various degrees carbon removal will be required to achieve climate stabilization at a level that avoids most dangerous changes in future. Among large number options realm natural solutions, atmospheric dioxide (CDR) via enhanced silicate weathering (EW) global working lands could, theory, billions tons CO 2 each year. Despite such potential, however, scientific verification field testing this technology are still need significant advancement. Increasing EW trials can aided formal presentation effective study designs methodological approaches quantifying removal. In particular, studies require interdisciplinary “convergence” research links low temperature geochemistry agronomy. Here, drawing on geologic agronomic literature, as well demonstration-scale EW, we provide overview (1) existing literature experimentation technique, (2) studying settings, (3) bases tradeoffs behind techniques for other relevant methodologies, (4) attributes stakeholder engagement translating action. doing so, guide establishing trials, thereby advancing through convergence

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the Natural Climate Solution Potential of Agricultural Systems by Combining Eddy Covariance and Remote Sensing

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Livestock agriculture accounts for ∼15% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recently, natural climate solutions (NCS) have been identified to mitigate farm‐scale GHG Nevertheless, their impacts are difficult quantify due farm spatial heterogeneity and effort required measure changes in carbon stocks. Remote sensing (RS) models parameterize heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Eddy covariance (EC) combination with novel techniques that quantitatively match source area variations could help update such vegetation‐specific parameters while accounting pronounced heterogeneity. We evaluate a plant physiological parameter, the maximum quantum yield (MQY), which is commonly used calculate gross net primary productivity RS applications. often rely on spatially invariable MQY, leads inconsistencies between EC models. if data improve by updating crop specific MQYs mitigation potentials. assessed how harvest compared annual sums (a) without improvements, (b) results, (c) EC‐RS then estimated emissions balance, including through uptake. Our results indicate significantly improved prediction yields. The model captures diurnal dynamics contrast based input limitations. A zero balance indicated perennial vegetation mitigated over 60% comprising 40% landscape. conclude can quantification NCS agroecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Different roads, same destination: The shared future of plant ecophysiology and ecohydrology

Plant Cell & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 47(9), P. 3447 - 3465

Published: May 10, 2024

Terrestrial water fluxes are substantially mediated by vegetation, while the distribution, growth, health, and mortality of plants strongly influenced availability water. These interactions, playing out across multiple spatial temporal scales, link disciplines plant ecophysiology ecohydrology. Despite this connection, have provided complementary, but largely independent, perspectives on soil-plant-atmosphere continuum since their crystallization as modern scientific in late 20th century. This review traces development two disciplines, from respective origins engineering ecology, independent growth maturation, eventual common conceptual quantitative frameworks. ground has allowed explicit coupling to better understand function. Case studies both illuminate limitations working isolation, reveal exciting possibilities created consilience between disciplines. The histories suggest opportunities for new advances will arise sharing methodologies, levels complexity, leveraging observational technologies. Practically, these exchanges can be supported creating shared spaces. argues that collaboration essential robust evidence-based predictions policy responses under global change.

Language: Английский

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