Stand age diversity and climate change affects forests’ resilience and stability, although unevenly DOI Creative Commons
Elia Vangi, Daniela Dalmonech, Elisa Cioccolo

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 13, 2023

Abstract Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water carbon budgets. Forest distribution is determined interplay tree mortality regeneration, influenced both natural anthropogenic disturbances. Thus, human-driven alteration presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing stability resilience. In our study, we investigated how impacts resilience budget under current future climate conditions. We employed a biogeochemical model on three historically managed stands, projecting their as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at evolution with no management interventions. The model, driven data from five Earth System Models four representative scenarios one baseline scenario, spanned 11 classes each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in young middle-aged (16- to 50-year-old), aligning ecological theories, regardless scenario. Under change, beech exhibited increase NPP maintained across all classes, while remained constant rising atmospheric CO 2 temperatures. However, declined change Norway spruce Scots pine sites. these coniferous forests, were more influenced. These results underscore necessity accounting species-specific reactions evaluating We, therefore, advocate customized strategies enhance adaptability forests changing climatic conditions, taking into account diverse responses different species groups climate.

Language: Английский

Simulating diverse forest management options in a changing climate on a Pinus nigra subsp. laricio plantation in Southern Italy DOI
Riccardo Testolin, Daniela Dalmonech, Gina Marano

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 857, P. 159361 - 159361

Published: Oct. 15, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics DOI Open Access
Elia Vangi, Daniela Dalmonech, Mauro Morichetti

et al.

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 1120 - 1120

Published: June 27, 2024

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed 3D-CMCC-FEM model simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four change (plus one no change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks increment were simulated via total woody mean annual increment, which depends mainly on trends. find greater differences among age cohorts same scenario class. Increasing temperature changes in precipitation patterns led a decline above-ground biomass spruce stands, especially older classes. On contrary, results show that beech will maintain even increase C-storage rates most RCP scenarios. Scots pine an intermediate behavior with stable stock capacity over time but decreasing volume increment. These confirm current observations worldwide indicate stronger climate-related conifers broadleaves.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Habitat and Migration Dynamics of North American Tree Species Under Climate Change DOI
Anantha Prasad, David L. Peterson, John Pedlar

et al.

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 8, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim We model and map the climatically suitable habitats migration potential of 326 tree species by combining forest inventories United States, Canada to a lesser extent, Mexico, with goal providing continental perspective ranges facilitate better stewardship under changing climate. Location Canada, Mexico. Major Taxa Studied Tree species. Methods use multi‐model ensemble technique assess climatic habitat suitability current future climates, compute colonisation likelihoods simulate end century migration. combine synthesise these outputs provide various products relevant range‐wide assessment Results For species, we maps of: suitability, SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, combined for century. In addition, synthesis (a) climate topographic statistical range assessments, (b) differences in richness from (c) performance, (d) climate‐topographic variable‐importance groupings (e) disequilibrium trends across genera. A continent‐wide both individual responses showed evidence smaller ranges, projected reduction middle lower mid‐continental regions, an increase southeastern, northeastern, northwestern regions continent. Also, found most eastern were mainly driven moisture, while western strong associations heat moisture. Main Conclusions Our study provides, first time, baseline understanding overall dynamics shifting their entire range, facilitating improved management North American forested ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Functional Relationships Reveal Large Differences in Streamflow Response to eCO2‐Vegetation in Global Water Models DOI Creative Commons
Haoshan Wei, Yongqiang Zhang, Qi Huang

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(9)

Published: May 9, 2025

Abstract Rising CO 2 levels substantially impact vegetation characteristics and potentially the water cycle. Using 14 global models, we assess how elevated (eCO ) affects streamflow ( Q via dynamics in period 1901 to 2020. Our results reveal considerable variability model simulations, with discrepancies not only magnitude but also directional trends of changes. To study these differences, compared outputs against observations from 1,116 small, unimpacted catchments. Functional relationships between climate variables, such as precipitation P ), aridity, temperature T eCO ‐vegetation‐driven () changes show large deviations models observations, especially response changing leaf area index (LAI). No successfully captured complex non‐linear interactions visible highlighting challenges accurately modeling ‐vegetation effects on cycle, particularly quantifying impacts LAI stomatal behavior .

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland DOI Creative Commons
Virpi Junttila, Francesco Minunno, Mikko Peltoniemi

et al.

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 52(11), P. 1716 - 1733

Published: Aug. 12, 2023

Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties net biome exchange (NBE) stocks under multiple management climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels global models (GCMs) served as inputs Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of 18 regions mainland Finland over period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, results revealed time- region-dependent variability magnitude uncertainty mean values NBE projections. The main sources varied time, by region amount harvested wood. Combinations representative concentration pathways GCMs, parameters were at beginning, while dominated end simulation period, combined GCMs especially north. Our regionally explicit analysis was found useful approach to reveal potentials reach related, future target level NBE, is important when planning realistic fair actions.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Climate change altered the dynamics of stand dominant height in forests during the past century – Analysis of 20 European tree species DOI Creative Commons

Matthieu Combaud,

Thomas Cordonnier, S. Dupire

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 553, P. 121601 - 121601

Published: Dec. 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Changes in Mean Seasonal Carbon Cycle Due to Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Mauro Morichetti, Elia Vangi, Alessio Collalti

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 21, 2024

Abstract Through photosynthesis, forests absorb annually large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 . However, they also release back through respiration. These two, opposite in sign, fluxes determine, much the carbon that is stored or released to atmosphere. The mean seasonal cycle (MSC) an interesting metric associates phenology and (C) partitioning-allocation analysis within forest stands. Here we applied 3D-CMCC-FEM model analyzed its capability represent main C-fluxes, by validating against observed data, questioning if sink/source seasonality influenced under two scenarios climate change, five contrasting European sites. We found has, current conditions, robust predictive abilities estimating NEE. Model results predict a consistent reduction forest’s capabilities act as C-sink change stand-ageing at all Such predicted despite number annual days evergreen increasing over years, indicating downward trend. Similarly, deciduous forests, maintaining relatively stable throughout year century, show their overall capacity. Overall, both types sites future mitigating potential.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics DOI Creative Commons
Elia Vangi, Daniela Dalmonech, Mauro Morichetti

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 25, 2024

Abstract Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed 3D-CMCC-FEM model simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four change scenarios (plus one no change) from five Earth System Models. In this context, carbon stocks increment were simulated via total car-bon woody mean annual increment, which depends mainly on trends. find greater differences among age cohorts same scenario in class. Increasing temperature changes precipitation patterns led a decline above-ground biomass spruce stands, espe-cially older classes. On contrary, results show that beech at DK-Sor will maintain even increase C-storage rates most RCP scenarios. Scots pine an intermediate behavior with stable stock capacity over time but decreasing volume increment. These confirm current observations worldwide indicate stronger climate-related conifers broadleaves.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Predicting trajectories of temperate forest understorey vegetation responses to global change DOI
Bingbin Wen, Haben Blondeel, Lander Baeten

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 566, P. 122091 - 122091

Published: June 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Machine Learning Forest Simulator (MLFS): R package for data-driven assessment of the future state of forests DOI
Jernej Jevšenak, Domen Arnič, Luka Krajnc

et al.

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 75, P. 102115 - 102115

Published: May 8, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

5