Journal of Economic Entomology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 8, 2024

Species distribution modeling is extensively used for predicting potential distributions of invasive species. However, an ensemble approach has been less frequently particularly pest The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi L. important wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) worldwide and causes 30% yield losses. Here, we developed a series models with multiple variables to predict the habitat suitability this at global scale. current suitable R. mainly distributed in East Asia, South Europe, southern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand. highly regions are primarily east China, Japan, most southeastern edge Australia. In future scenarios, habitats will undergo significant contraction overall northward, no moderately nor predicted other areas. Our findings indicate that high risk outbreaks currently exists mentioned above, especially cultivation, but capacity cause such weaken future. Climate-associated factors significantly more than land use, elevation host-plant factors, BIO11 (mean temperature coldest quarter), particular, predominated shaping projections padi's distribution. pattern key ecological affecting identified herein could provide guidance developing management policies targeting economically pest.

Language: Английский