Prediction of the change in suitable growth area of Sabina tibetica on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using MaxEnt model

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

As a keystone species maintaining alpine ecosystem stability, Tibetan juniper ( Sabina tibetica ) is endemic to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, thriving at 2,800–4,600 m elevations. We employed MaxEnt model with 10 bioclimatic and topographic variables predict its distribution shifts under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios for 2050 2070. Model performance was validated through five-fold spatial cross-validation (AUC = 0.932), utilizing 99 occurrence records from field surveys biodiversity databases. Minimum winter temperature (35.1% contribution) warmest quarter precipitation (18.9%) emerged as dominant drivers. The current suitable habitat (4.69 × 4 km 2 projected decrease 3.82 (18.6% reduction) RCP4.5-2050 2.78 (40.7% by Under high-emission scenarios, areas will contract 3.83×10⁴ km² (RCP8.5-2050) 3.86 (RCP8.5-2070), showing 18.3% 17.7% reductions respectively. Range contractions concentrate in western Sichuan southeastern Tibet, RCP4.5-2070 exhibiting most severe loss. range concentrated Tibet. Priority conservation were identified Yarlung Zangbo Valley Hengduan Mountains. This study provides quantitative assessment of tibetica’s climate vulnerability, offering critical insights adaptive management high-altitude ecosystems global change.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of aboveground biomass in Quercus wutaishanica Mayr forests based on random forest and structural equation modeling: A cross-scale analysis

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 505, P. 111113 - 111113

Published: April 9, 2025

Language: Английский

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Warming and drying increased the interspecies consistency of tree-ring lignin methoxy δ2H variability at the alpine treeline

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 238, P. 104468 - 104468

Published: May 23, 2024

Language: Английский

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Spatial Pattern and Environmental Driving Factors of Treeline Elevations in Yulong Snow Mountain, China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 1261 - 1261

Published: July 19, 2024

The southwestern region of China is a global biodiversity hotspot. Understanding the environmental mechanisms behind treeline formation in high-altitude areas crucial for predicting ecosystem changes, such as upward movement due to climate warming and disappearance rocky beach shrub ecosystems. Globally, observations show that growing seasonal temperatures at treelines are typically 6–7 °C, but trees do not always reach predicted elevations. Spatial heterogeneity exists deviation (Dtreeline) between actual elevation thermal treeline; however, main driving factors Dtreeline many remain unclear. This study uses Yulong Snow Mountain an example, employing machine learning methods like Support Vector Machine (SVM) precisely identify Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree (XGBoost) explore spatial Dtreeline. Our research found (1) more than half deviated from treeline, with average (3924 ± 391 m) being about 56 m higher (3863 223 m); (2) has complex relationship factors. In addition highly correlated temperature, precipitation wind speed also significantly influence this region; (3) individual variables on variation limited, often nonlinear, involves threshold effects. knowledge essential developing comprehensive protection strategies Yunnan’s ecological systems response warming. Furthermore, it plays significant role understanding changes biological communities change.

Language: Английский

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Local and regional climatic constraints of shrub and tree growth near the treeline

Dendrochronologia, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 88, P. 126256 - 126256

Published: Sept. 6, 2024

Language: Английский

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