Climatic niche conservatism in non-native plants depends on introduction history and biogeographic context

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 29, 2025

Abstract Many tools informing preventive invasion management build on the assumption that introduced species will conserve their climatic niches outside native ranges. Previous research testing validity of this found contradictory results regarding niche conservatism vs. switching for non-native species. An open question is in how far these contradictions reflect context dependency, yet only few studies compared dynamics to multiple regions. Here, we used an ordination-based approach quantify changes (stability, unfilling, expansion) 316 plant eight different regions across world, including Pacific region with extreme isolation between island groups. We then performed phylogenetic regressions assess regional and species’ characteristics affect dynamics. Niche varied regions, even within While expansion into previously unoccupied climates was generally low, unfilling strongly Generally, region-specific introduction history biogeographic attributes were more important explaining than ecological traits. consistently higher small range sizes, stability increased. In contrast, decreased time since which could suggest lack observed many might be transient potentially related dispersal limitations. Overall, our shed light dependency when are new highlighting should accounted assessing potential changes. Significance Statement As by humans, they may occupy same conditions as ranges, leave parts unfilled or expanding conditions. Knowing extent occur essential understanding managing biological invasions. evaluate differences plants world. marked variation influenced factors such has passed introduced, both These findings indicate a apparent likely temporary phenomenon.

Language: Английский

---

Predicting the global economic costs of biological invasions by tetrapods

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 967, P. 178425 - 178425

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Globalisation has accelerated rates of biological invasions worldwide, leading to widespread environmental perturbations that often translate into rapidly expanding socio-economic costs. Although such monetary costs can be estimated from the observed effects invasions, pathways lead invasive species become economically impactful remain poorly understood. Here, we implement first global-scale test hypothesis adaptive traits influence demographic resilience predict economic costs, using terrestrial vertebrates as models given their well-catalogued impacts and characteristics. Our results reveal total global tetrapods are conservatively in tens billions dollars, with vast majority due damage mammals. These predicted by longevity, female maturation age, diet invasion pathway traits, although directionality association between these drivers varied across classes. Alarmingly, unknown for >90 % recorded established alien invaded countries. huge demonstrate necessity mitigating tetrapod filling knowledge gaps. Effective identification predictive among within groups facilitate prioritisation resources efficiently target most damaging existing emerging species.

Language: Английский

---

Harnessing traits to predict economic impacts from biological invasions

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 1, 2025

Biological invasions stand among the main anthropogenic threats to ecosystems globally while causing multitrillion-dollar impacts. Surprisingly, trait-based frameworks have been designed predict invasion success and invader ecological impacts, no such approaches exist understand economic We propose first framework by bridging evolutionary biology of traits escalation costs. Previously acquired can benefit performance, their rapid change could exacerbate impacts through adaptive non-adaptive processes during invasion, as natural selection, genetic drift, or phenotypic plasticity. Emerging evidence suggests that some organismal determine impact magnitudes. discuss new transdisciplinary avenues inform cost forecasting management responses for current future biological invasions.

Language: Английский

---

Uncertainty in blacklisting potential Pacific plant invaders using species distribution models

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 13, 2024

1. Invasive alien species pose a growing threat to global biodiversity, necessitating evidence-based prevention measures. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful tool for quantifying the potential of in non-native areas and deriving blacklists based on establishment risk. Yet, uncertainties due different modelling decisions may affect predictive accuracy robustness such blacklists. We thus aim assess relevance three distinct sources uncertainty SDM blacklists: data, environmental data algorithms. 2. Focusing 82 most invasive plant Hawaiian Islands, we built SDMs quantify their Pacific region. considered two datasets (native vs. occurrences), predictor sets (climatic edapho-climatic), four Based predictions, derived using blacklisting definitions quantified variance blacklist rankings associated with each source uncertainty. 3. On average, showed fair performance. algorithm choice resulted largest variation ranks while was lower varied across definitions. Nevertheless, only native occurrences led clear underestimation certain performance, including high ranking 4. can serve as robust decision support plan preventive management strategies. To establish model-aided blacklists, recommend ensemble multiple algorithms that rely rather than only. The predictors additional climate should be carefully weighed against spatial coverage those ensure sufficiently large sample sizes accuracy. advocate explicit assessment increase confidence allow more reliable decision-making.

Language: Английский

---

Predicting the global economic costs of biological invasions by tetrapods

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 16, 2024

Abstract Globalisation has steadily accelerated rates of biological invasions worldwide, leading to widespread environmental perturbations that often translate into rapidly expanding socioeconomic costs. Although such monetary costs can be estimated based on the observed effects invasions, pathways lead invasive species become economically impactful remain poorly understood. Here, we implement first global-scale test hypothesis adaptive traits influence demographic resilience predict economic costs, using terrestrial vertebrates as models given their rising impacts and well-catalogued characteristics. Our results reveal total global tetrapods are conservatively in tens billions dollars, with vast majority due damage from mammals. These predicted by longevity, female maturation age, diet invasional pathway traits, although directionality also varied trait across classes. Alarmingly, unknown for >90% recorded established alien invaded countries. huge socio-economic demonstrate necessity mitigating tetrapod filling knowledge gaps. Effective identification predictive among within these groups facilitate prioritisation resources efficiently target most damaging existing emerging species.

Language: Английский

---

Invasion Dynamics of the Alien Amphibian Xenopus laevis in France: Perspectives for Management

Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 34(11)

Published: Oct. 29, 2024

ABSTRACT Background Invasive alien species (IAS) are recognised as pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose significant threats to socio‐ecosystems worldwide. Although much attention is focused on prevalent IAS, the oversight that still contained approaching critical invasion thresholds raises concern. In this context, scientific support implement effective spatially informed management strategies critically needed. Aims Our study focuses African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis , a concerning IAS projected undergo substantial expansion in Europe. Materials & Methods Using comprehensive analysis three distinct datasets, our aimed document newly colonised sites provide an up‐to‐date overview current distribution dynamics X. France. Results results revealed recent colonisation new within established range continuous progression front at rate 1.2 km per year. This annual currently translates approximately 400 2 year predicted species. Discussion Emphasising urgent need for proactive management, we recommend measures encompassing prevention, early detection rapid responses invasion, delineated across strategic zoning levels. Conclusion Immediate coordinated efforts imperative anticipate mitigate considerable socio‐environmental impacts associated with future.

Language: Английский

---