Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States DOI Creative Commons
Theodore Keeping, Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: April 16, 2025

Realistic projections of future wildfires need to account for both the stochastic nature climate and randomness individual fire events. Here we adopt a probabilistic approach predict current probabilities using large ensemble 1,600 modelled years representing different realisations during modern reference period (2000–2009) characterised by an additional 2°C global warming. This allows us characterise distribution contiguous United States, including extreme when number fires or length season exceeded those seen in short observational record. We show that spread is higher areas with high mean fires, but there variation this relationship regions proportionally variability Great Plains southwestern States. The principal drivers simulated are related either interannual fuel production atmospheric moisture controls on drying, distinct geographic patterns which each these dominant control. also shows considerable length, such as States being vulnerable very long seasons years. increases warming, even more across three quarters Warming has strong effect likelihood less fire-prone northern experience It amplifying annual occurrence already western area availability control substantially These analyses demonstrate importance taking stochasticity characterising wildfire regimes, utility ensembles making under change.

Language: Английский

Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States DOI Creative Commons
Theodore Keeping, Boya Zhou, Wenjia Cai

et al.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: April 16, 2025

Realistic projections of future wildfires need to account for both the stochastic nature climate and randomness individual fire events. Here we adopt a probabilistic approach predict current probabilities using large ensemble 1,600 modelled years representing different realisations during modern reference period (2000–2009) characterised by an additional 2°C global warming. This allows us characterise distribution contiguous United States, including extreme when number fires or length season exceeded those seen in short observational record. We show that spread is higher areas with high mean fires, but there variation this relationship regions proportionally variability Great Plains southwestern States. The principal drivers simulated are related either interannual fuel production atmospheric moisture controls on drying, distinct geographic patterns which each these dominant control. also shows considerable length, such as States being vulnerable very long seasons years. increases warming, even more across three quarters Warming has strong effect likelihood less fire-prone northern experience It amplifying annual occurrence already western area availability control substantially These analyses demonstrate importance taking stochasticity characterising wildfire regimes, utility ensembles making under change.

Language: Английский

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