Global Projection of Terrestrial Vertebrate Food Webs Under Future Climate and Land‐Use Changes

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Food webs represent an important nexus between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, yet considering changes in food around the world has been limited by data availability. Previous studies have predicted web collapses coextinction, but structure less investigated under climate warming anthropogenic pressures on a global scale. We systematically amassed information about species' diets, traits, distributions, habitat use, phylogenetics real used machine learning to predict meta‐food of terrestrial vertebrates land‐use changes. By year 2100, vertebrate are expected decrease size 32% trophic links 49%. Projections declines over 25% modularity, predator generality, diversity groups. Increased dispersal could ameliorate these trends indicate disproportionate vulnerability regional webs. Unlike many previous studies, this work combines extensive empirical with advanced modeling techniques, providing more detailed spatially explicit prediction how will respond Overall, our study predicts undergo drastic heterogeneous structural

Language: Английский

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Generation length of the world's amphibians and reptiles

Ecography, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 19, 2025

Variation in life histories influences demographic processes, from adaptive changes to population declines leading extinction. Among history traits, generation length offers a critical feature forecast species' trajectories such as (widely used by the IUCN Red List) and adaptability environmental change over time. Therefore, estimates of are crucial monitor stability or predict future highly threatened organisms, particularly amphibians reptiles, which among vertebrates for uncertainty impacts remains high. Despite its importance, reptiles is largely missing. Here, we aim fill this gap modeling lengths amphibians, squamates testudines function species size, climate, phylogeny using generalized additive models phylogenetic least squares. We estimated 5059 (57%) 8722 (73%) 117 (32%) testudines. Our performed well most families (e.g. Bufonidae Lacertidae Colubridae squamates, Geoemydidae testudines) while found high around prediction few families, notably Chamaeleonidae. Species' body size mean temperature were main predictors all groups. Although our not meant substitute robust validated measurements field studies natural museums, they can help reduce existing biases conservation assessments until data comprehensively available.

Language: Английский

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Human activity and climate change accelerate the extinction risk to non‐human primates in China

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Dec. 28, 2023

Human activity and climate change affect biodiversity cause species range shifts, contractions, expansions. Globally, human activities have emerged as persistent threats to biodiversity, leading approximately 68% of the ~522 primate being threatened with extinction. Here, we used habitat suitability models integrated data on population density, gross domestic product (GDP), road construction, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), location protected areas (PAs), predict potential changes in distributional richness 26 China's species. Our results indicate that both PAs NDVI a positive impact distributions. With increasing anthropogenic pressure, species' ranges were restricted high cover surrounded by buffer zones 2.7-4.5 km core area at least 0.1-0.5 from closest edge PA. Areas GDP below Chinese national average 100,000 yuan found be ecologically vulnerable, this had negative Changes temperature precipitation also significant contributors reduction Under expected influence over next 30-50 years, highly suitable for primates will continue decrease smaller more peripheral parts their current range. diversity are lose 3 7 We recommend immediate action taken, including expanding National Park Program, Ecological Conservation Redline Natural Forest Protection along stronger policy promoting alternative/sustainable livelihoods people local communities adjacent ranges, offset detrimental effects survivorship.

Language: Английский

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Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar’s chameleons fauna

Communications Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: July 21, 2024

Abstract The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar one World’s most renewed hotspots biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety plant animal species threatened deforestation change. Predicting future Madagascar’s chameleons, in particular, complicated their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor menacing survival. By applying an extension ENphylo distribution model algorithm work with extremely rare species, we find that chameleons will face intense loss north-western sector island. Land conversion humans drive loss, intersect a complex, nonlinear manner We some 30% may lose nearly all habitats, critically jeopardizing chance for

Language: Английский

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Global hotspots of butterfly diversity are threatened in a warming world

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 24, 2025

Insects are in decline and threatened by climate change, yet lack of globally comprehensive information limits the understanding management this crisis. Here we uncover a strong concentration butterfly diversity rare rapidly shrinking high-elevation climates. Integrating phylogenetic geographic range data for 12,119 species, find that global centres richness, rarity unusually concentrated tropical subtropical mountain systems. Two-thirds assessed species primarily dwelling mountains hold 3.5 times more hotspots (top 5%) than lowlands. These only partially overlap with those ants, terrestrial vertebrates vascular plants (14-36%), while is uniquely above 2,000 m elevation. We project up to 64% temperature niche space butterflies realms will erode 2070, geographically restricted conditions potentially turning these from refugia traps diversity. Our study identifies critical conservation priorities underscores need quantitative assessments at least select insect groups help mitigate biodiversity loss warming world.

Language: Английский

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Simpson Desert

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 63 - 92

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

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From Hot to Cold Spots: Climate Change is Projected to Modify Diversity Patterns of Small Mammals in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Climate change represents one of the main threats to global biodiversity, and such alterations are expected induce shifts in distribution ranges diversity patterns. We evaluate if protected areas forest remnants Atlantic Forest South America (AF) projected ensure taxonomic (TD) phylogenetic (PD) non‐volant small mammals under scenarios future climate change. Location (AF), America. Methods used Species Distribution Modelling (SDMs) through an ensemble approach assess potential 101 species using present (1979–2013) (2050 2070) scenarios. consider optimistic pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration (SSP370 SSP585). accessed TD sum suitable vs. low or unknown suitability maps for each PD branch lengths a tree spatialised. Results Our models suggest that is likely reduce climatic AF. The shrinkage lead high loss PD. southeastern region experience most pronounced decline PD, while some southern increase future. Main Conclusions strong from biodiversity hotspot regions AF Since have dispersal ability, because highly fragmented, it unlikely this biome will sustain mammal

Language: Английский

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The vulnerability of endemic vertebrates in Sri Lanka to climate change

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 59, P. e03515 - e03515

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Language: Английский

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Predicting Suitable Spatial Distribution Areas for Urban Trees Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Species Distribution Models: A Case Study of Michelia chapensis

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 638 - 638

Published: March 18, 2025

Climate change has presented considerable challenges in the management of urban forests and trees. Varieties studies have predicted potential changes species distribution by employing single-algorithm models (SDMs) to investigate impacts climate on plant species. However, there is still limited quantitative research suitable ranges commonly used tree Therefore, our study aims optimize traditional SDMs integrating multiple machine learning algorithms propose a framework for identifying trees under change. We took Michelia chapensis, particular significance southern China, as pilot evolution its range context two future scenarios (SSP126 SSP585) across four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s). The findings indicated that ensemble SDM showed strong predictive capacity, with an area curve (AUC) value 0.95. chapensis estimated at 15.9 × 105 km2 currently it will expand most areas according projection. contract southeastern Yunnan, central Guangdong, Sichuan Basin, northern Hubei, Jiangxi, etc. location current located Hengyang, Hunan (27.36° N, 112.34° E), projected shift westward future. migration magnitude positively correlated intensity These provide scientific basis landscape planning chapensis. Furthermore, proposed can be seen valuable tool predicting response change, providing insights proactive adaptation management.

Language: Английский

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Riverine Realities: Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Habitat Dynamics of the Critically Endangered Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) in the Indian Landscape

Animals, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 896 - 896

Published: March 20, 2025

The endemic and critically endangered gharial, Gavialis gangeticus, experienced a severe population decline in its range. However, conservation efforts, notably through the implementation of “Project Crocodile” India, have led to significant recovery population. present study employs an ensemble Species Distribution Model (SDM) delineate suitable habitats for G. gangeticus under current future climatic scenarios understand impact climate change. model estimates that 46.85% area occupancy is scenario, with this projected increase by 145.16% conditions. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Assam are experience habitat suitability, whereas Odisha Rajasthan anticipated face declines. recommends conducting ground-truthing ecological assessments using advanced technologies genetic analyses validate viability newly identified Lower Ganges, Mahanadi, Brahmaputra River systems. These areas should be prioritized within Protected Area network potential translocation sites allocation. Collaborative efforts between IUCN-SSC Crocodile Specialist Group stakeholders vital prioritizing implementing site-specific interventions protect highly threatened gharial wild.

Language: Английский

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