A Framework for Assessing the Habitat Correlates of Spatially Explicit Population Trends

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Halting widespread biodiversity loss will require detailed information on species' trends and the habitat conditions correlated with population declines. However, constraints conventional monitoring programs commonplace approaches for trend estimation can make it difficult to obtain such across ranges. Here, we demonstrate how recent developments in machine learning model interpretation, combined data sources derived from participatory science, enable landscape‐scale inferences correlates of broad spatial extents. Location Worldwide, a case study western United States. Methods We used interpretable understand relationships between land cover spatially explicit bird trends. Using three passerine birds U.S. eBird data, explore potential impacts simulated modification while evaluating co‐benefits among species. Results Our analysis revealed complex, non‐linear variables as well substantial interspecific variation those relationships. Areas most positive overlapped two species, but these changes had little effect third Main Conclusions This framework help conservation practitioners identify important species also highlighting areas where modifications landscape could bring biggest benefits. The is transferable hundreds worldwide estimates, allowing inference multiple at scales that are tractable management combat

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal modelling of northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) distribution patterns throughout Canada’s subarctic and arctic regions

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 740, P. 79 - 93

Published: July 8, 2024

Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis occur throughout Canada’s Atlantic Ocean, where they are thought to form a single population spanning from Baffin Bay the tail of Grand Bank. Here, play an important role in ecosystem as prey for many taxa and have been targeted by lucrative large-scale fishery since 1970s. Yet, we still understand little about which (and how) environmental factors influence their distribution abundance. We used survey data collected over 29 yr 23 degrees latitude develop spatiotemporal model predicting northern density. confirmed that both top-down drivers (e.g. predation pressure), well bottom-up bottom temperature) roles determining presence abundance shrimp. The was predict density entire study area 2005 2022. Our results highlight importance understanding dynamics relation patterns trends within resource assessments.

Language: Английский

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Climate Covariate Choice and Uncertainty in Projecting Species Range Shifts: A Case Study in the Eastern Bering Sea

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 16, 2024

ABSTRACT Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated effects temperature on movement, there is a need incorporate wider suite ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate rate responses shocks. As subarctic ecosystem at sea ice margin, Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) warming faster than much global ocean, resulting in rapid redistribution key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning adaptation, we combine 40 years scientific surveys with high‐resolution oceanographic model examine bottom temperature, oxygen, pH regional index (the extent EBS ‘cold pool’) projections through end century. We use multimodel inference partition uncertainty among earth systems models, scenarios parameterizations for several economically important groundfish crabs. Covariate choice primary source most species, that account spatial cold pool performing better suggesting more extensive northward movements alternative models. Models suggest declines probability occurrence low oxygen concentrations species. project directionally consistent with, yet larger those previously estimated accounting large‐scale variability may substantially alter projections.

Language: Английский

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Spatial ensemble learning for predicting the potential geographical distribution of invasive species

International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(11), P. 2216 - 2234

Published: July 10, 2024

Language: Английский

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Spatio‐temporal occupancy models with INLA

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 18, 2024

Abstract Modern methods for quantifying, predicting and mapping species distributions have played a crucial part in biodiversity conservation. Occupancy models become popular choice analysing occurrence data due to their ability separate out the observational error induced by imperfect detection of species, sources bias affecting occupancy process. However, spatial temporal variation that is not accounted environmental covariates often ignored or modelled through simple structures as computational costs fitting explicit spatio‐temporal too high. In this work, we demonstrate how Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) may be used fit complex R‐INLA package can provide user‐friendly interface make such available users. We show models, provided some simplification on process assumed, framed latent Gaussian and, such, benefit from powerful INLA framework. A large selection modelling features, random effect including already been implemented . These also providing user with an efficient, reliable flexible toolbox. illustrate provides computationally efficient framework developing using two case studies. Through these, different include spatial‐varying trends, smooth terms effects fitted aggregated detection/non‐detection data. At cost limiting complexity model structure, incorporate range rather ecological interest hence, extend functionality models. The limitations scalability sets remain challenge active area research. INLA‐based alternative inferential need new more approaches makes attractive option addressing problems, promising

Language: Английский

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How do ecologists estimate occupancy in practice?

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 3, 2024

Over 20 years ago, ecologists were introduced to the site occupancy model (SOM) for estimating rates from detection‐nondetection data. In ensuing decades, SOM and its hierarchical modeling extensions have become mainstays of quantitative ecology, has one most common applications ecological field Here, we review 364 peer‐reviewed articles published between 2019–2021 that estimated occupancy. We first document broad patterns in study design statistical methods provide educators, developers methodology software, with a clear picture landscape methodologies used estimate animal Second, conduct focused subset 98 papers applied SOM, drawing methodological literature identify discrepancies best practices. discuss limits power, issues checking selection procedures, potential problems arising unmodeled non‐independence, reproducibility. highlight areas rapid advancement interpreting related movement, imperfect detection, occupancy–density relationship. aim help readers understand available, motivate shifts toward robust reproducible science, inspire new software research.

Language: Английский

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Uncovering habitat associations and thresholds—insights for managing breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(8)

Published: Aug. 7, 2024

Abstract Context Understanding how habitat influences species abundance is crucial in developing ecologically sound wildlife conservation management plans. Exploring associations and ecological thresholds species’ responses allows for better on a landscape-scale. Objectives This work aimed to identify drivers response of waterfowl waterbird densities eastern Canada support key landscape-level decisions wetland management. Methods We developed predictive models 17 across from 2001 2015 using data four regional surveys identified areas where prioritizing enhancement wetlands would increase the breeding density five priority species. Results Habitat spatial patterns varied species, but most responded strongly forest composition, agriculture, features. Threshold effects occurred among yet generally once 14% plot was covered wetlands, positive increased diminished Our results allow targeting investments increasing area along portions that provide best opportunities Conclusions species-habitat landscape planning prioritization limited resources. suggest efforts should be guided by attributes prioritize actions will have biggest impact multiple

Language: Английский

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spOccupancy: Single-Species, Multi-Species, and Integrated Spatial Occupancy Models

Published: Nov. 11, 2021

Language: Английский

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