Prospects for Neotropical Forest Birds and Their Habitats Under Contrasting Emissions Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Jeffrey D. Brawn, David Luther, Ming Qu

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity notably high precipitation regimes largely determine ecology most organisms. We modeled possible changes in severity seasonal aridity by 2100 throughout used birds to illustrate implications contrasting scenarios for region's biodiversity. Under SSP‐8.5, pessimistic hopefully unlikely scenario, longer dry seasons (> 5%), increased moisture stress are projected about 75% extant lowland forests entire with impacts on 66% forest avifauna, which comprises over 3000 species 30% all bird globally. Longer predicted be especially significant Caribbean, Upper South America, Amazonia. In contrast, under SSP‐2.6—a scenario mitigation—only 10% area 3% its avifauna exposed seasons. extent current cover that may plausibly function as precipitation‐based refugia (i.e., < 5% change length periods) constituent 4 times greater SSP‐2.6 than SSP‐8.5. Moreover, proportion currently protected areas overlap putative nearly SSP‐2.6. Taken together, our results have profound outcomes Neotropics—even deforestation other immediate threats not play.

Language: Английский

Prospects for Neotropical Forest Birds and Their Habitats Under Contrasting Emissions Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Jeffrey D. Brawn, David Luther, Ming Qu

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity notably high precipitation regimes largely determine ecology most organisms. We modeled possible changes in severity seasonal aridity by 2100 throughout used birds to illustrate implications contrasting scenarios for region's biodiversity. Under SSP‐8.5, pessimistic hopefully unlikely scenario, longer dry seasons (> 5%), increased moisture stress are projected about 75% extant lowland forests entire with impacts on 66% forest avifauna, which comprises over 3000 species 30% all bird globally. Longer predicted be especially significant Caribbean, Upper South America, Amazonia. In contrast, under SSP‐2.6—a scenario mitigation—only 10% area 3% its avifauna exposed seasons. extent current cover that may plausibly function as precipitation‐based refugia (i.e., < 5% change length periods) constituent 4 times greater SSP‐2.6 than SSP‐8.5. Moreover, proportion currently protected areas overlap putative nearly SSP‐2.6. Taken together, our results have profound outcomes Neotropics—even deforestation other immediate threats not play.

Language: Английский

Citations

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