Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 23(1), P. 164 - 176

Published: Aug. 20, 2016

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils climate). Moreover, garden studies have demonstrated covariance between neutral markers functional traits associated with species' ability to adapt change. therefore predicted genetically distinct populations would respond differently climate change, resulting little overlap. To test whether improves our space, we created informed (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), widespread tree which prior experiments demonstrate strong evidence for Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs occurrences up 12-fold greater accuracy than without information; (ii) tests similarity revealed three ecotypes, identified basis locally adapted populations, are differences climate; (iii) forecasts indicate ongoing change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart geographic divergence; (iv) currently exhibit largest distribution breadth appear be buffered most from As diverse agents selection shape variability structure within species, argue lead accurate predictions under

Language: Английский

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Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 19(9), P. 1119 - 1128

Published: July 19, 2016

Abstract Predicting long‐term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between productivity and climatic stress varies across regimes. Using a network over two million tree‐ring observations spanning North America space‐for‐time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future growth. We explored differing scenarios increased water‐use efficiency ( WUE ) due to CO 2 ‐fertilisation, which simulated as effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) change negatively impacted rates interior west positively along western, southeastern northeastern coasts; (2) shifting sensitivities offset positive effects warming high‐latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; (3) it took 72% enhancement compensate continentally averaged declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight importance locally adapted management strategies handle regional differences responses change.

Language: Английский

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Trait differentiation and adaptation of plants along elevation gradients

Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 31(6), P. 784 - 800

Published: March 8, 2018

Studies of genetic adaptation in plant populations along elevation gradients mountains have a long history, but there has until now been neither synthesis how frequently exhibit to nor an evaluation consistent underlying trait differences across species are. We reviewed studies (i) from meta-analysis phenotypic differentiation three traits (height, biomass and phenology) plants growing 70 common garden experiments; (ii) by testing using fitness proxies (survival, reproductive output biomass) 14 reciprocal transplant (iii) qualitatively assessing information at the molecular level, 10 genomewide surveys candidate gene approaches. found that originating high elevations were generally shorter produced less biomass, phenology did not vary consistently. significant evidence for terms survival output. Variation responses was related life history or environmental conditions. Molecular studies, which focussed mainly on loci physiology phenology, also provide gradients. Together, these indicate genetically based are widespread plants. conclude better understanding mechanisms adaptation, only change, will require more combining ecological

Language: Английский

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The evolutionary genomics of species’ responses to climate change

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(10), P. 1350 - 1360

Published: Aug. 9, 2021

Language: Английский

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Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(9), P. 1533 - 1545

Published: April 10, 2023

Abstract Species distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies diversity patterns, species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In 50th anniversary year Journal Biogeography , I reflect on developments illustrate how embedded methodology become all speculate directions field. Challenges to raised this journal 2006 have been addressed significant degree. Those challenges are clarification concept; improved sample design for occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing performance transferability; integrating correlative process models distributions. SDM is used, often conjunction with other evidence, understand past range dynamics, identify patterns drivers biological diversity, limits, define delineate ecoregions, estimate distributions biodiversity elements relation protected status prioritize action, forecast shifts response climate scenarios. Areas progress that may more accessible useful tools include genetically informed community models.

Language: Английский

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Adapting systematic conservation planning for climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 27(1), P. 1 - 29

Published: Sept. 27, 2017

Language: Английский

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Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 20(6), P. 693 - 707

Published: April 21, 2017

Abstract Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all are linked to other through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due the different spatial scales considered by two sub‐disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while ecologists focus on small fine resolutions. A general framework including interactions in macroecological would help bridge this divide, it allow rigorous testing of role play determining ranges. Here, we present an approach combines distribution with Bayesian networks, which enables direct indirect effects be modelled propagating conditional dependencies among species’ presences. We show a California grassland results better range predictions across western USA. new will important improving estimates their dynamics under change.

Language: Английский

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Photoperiodic Diapause and the Establishment ofAedes albopictus(Diptera: Culicidae) in North America

Journal of Medical Entomology, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 53(5), P. 1013 - 1023

Published: June 28, 2016

The invasion and range expansion of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) in North America represents an outstanding opportunity to study processes invasion, expansion, climatic adaptation. Furthermore, knowledge obtained from such research is relevant developing novel strategies control this important vector species. Substantial evidence indicates that the photoperiodic diapause response adaptation variation across Ae. America. Photoperiodic a key determinant abundance both space time, timing entry into exit out strongly affects seasonal population dynamics thus potential for arbovirus transmission. Emerging genomic technologies are making it possible develop high-resolution, genome-wide genetic markers can be used mapping traits disease transmission phylogeographic studies elucidate history. Recent work using next-generation sequencing (e.g., RNA-seq), combined with physiological experiments, has provided extensive insight transcriptional basis . Applying identify targets future challenge. Finally, recent have begun other than affected by photoperiodism. Extending additional influenced photoperiod should produce insights biology

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal landscape genetics: Investigating ecology and evolution through space and time

Molecular Ecology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 29(2), P. 218 - 246

Published: Nov. 23, 2019

Genetic time-series data from historical samples greatly facilitate inference of past population dynamics and species evolution. Yet, although climate landscape change are often touted as post-hoc explanations biological change, our understanding influences on evolutionary processes is severely hindered by the limited application methods that directly relate environmental to through time. Increased integration spatiotemporal genetic will revolutionize interpretation quantification recent anthropogenic impacts species, vastly improve prediction responses under future scenarios, yielding widespread revelations across biology, ecology conservation genetics. This review encourages greater use analyses explicitly link landscape, time providing an overview analytical approaches for integrating in five key research areas: structure, demography, phylogeography, metapopulation connectivity adaptation. We also include a tabular summary methodological information, suggest mitigating particular difficulties applying these techniques ancient DNA palaeoclimate data, highlight areas development.

Language: Английский

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Avian SDMs: current state, challenges, and opportunities

Journal of Avian Biology, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 48(12), P. 1483 - 1504

Published: Oct. 23, 2017

Quantifying species distributions using distribution models (SDMs) has emerged as a central method in modern biogeography. These empirical link occurrence data with spatial environmental information. Since their emergence the 1990s, thousands of scientific papers have used SDMs to study organisms across entire tree life, birds commanding considerable attention. Here, we review current state avian and point challenges future opportunities for specific applications, ranging from conservation biology, invasive predicting seabird distributions, more general topics such modeling diversity, niche evolution seasonal at biogeographic scale. While been criticized being phenomenological nature, inability explicitly account variety processes affecting populations, conclude that they remain powerful tool learn about past, current, – least when limitations assumptions are recognized addressed. We close our by providing an outlook on prospects synergies other disciplines which can play important role.

Language: Английский

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