Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, formal evaluation this causal relationship lacking. Here, we investigate extent to which WNV can be attributed while accounting for other direct human influences such land-use and population changes. To end, trained ecological niche models predict risk local circulation leading cases then unravel isolated effect by comparing factual simulations counterfactual based same environmental changes but long-term trends have removed. Our findings demonstrate notable increase area ecologically suitable during period 1901–2019, whereas remains largely unchanged no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that drastic at exposure partly due historical density, also critical behind heightened Europe.

Language: Английский

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Top ten hazards to avoid when modeling species distributions: a didactic guide of assumptions, problems, and recommendations

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(4)

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Species distribution models, also known as ecological niche models or habitat suitability have become commonplace for addressing fundamental and applied biodiversity questions. Although the field has progressed rapidly regarding theory implementation, key assumptions are still frequently violated recommendations inadvertently overlooked. This leads to poor being published used in real‐world applications. In a structured, didactic treatment, we summarize what our view constitute ten most problematic issues, hazards, negatively affecting implementation of correlative approaches species modeling (specifically those that model by comparing environments species' occurrence records with background pseudoabsence sample). For each hazard, state relevant assumptions, detail problems arise when violating them, convey straightforward existing recommendations. We discuss five major outstanding questions active current research. hope this contribution will promote more rigorous these valuable stimulate further advancements.

Language: Английский

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Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such have been mainly produced distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts forest tree across Europe over last 12,000 years to compare reliability three different types models. We show that most climatically dissimilar conditions, process‐explicit (PEMs) tend outperform correlative (CSDMs), and PEM are likely be more than those made CSDMs end 21st century. These results demonstrate first time often promoted albeit so far untested idea explicit description mechanisms confers model robustness, highlight a new avenue increase projection future.

Language: Английский

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UAV-Based Slope Failure Detection Using Deep-Learning Convolutional Neural Networks

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 11(17), P. 2046 - 2046

Published: Aug. 30, 2019

Slope failures occur when parts of a slope collapse abruptly under the influence gravity, often triggered by rainfall event or earthquake. The resulting cause problems in mountainous hilly regions, and detection failure is therefore an important topic for research. Most methods currently used mapping modelling rely on classification algorithms feature extraction, but spatial complexity failures, uncertainties inherent expert knowledge, transferability, all combine to inhibit detection. In attempt overcome some these we have analyzed potential deep learning convolutional neural networks (CNNs) detection, area along road section northern Himalayas, India. We optical data from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over two separate study areas. Different CNN designs were produce eight different distribution maps, which then compared with manually extracted polygons using accuracy assessment metrics such as precision, F-score, mean intersection-over-union (mIOU). A inventory set was produced each areas frequency-area (FAD). approach that found perform best (precision almost 90% F-score 85%, mIOU 74%) one window size 64 × pixels sample patches, included additional input layer. information helped discriminate between roads, had similar spectral characteristics imagery. concluded effectiveness CNNs strongly dependent their design (i.e., selected patch, used, training strategies), are only designed trial error. While can be powerful tools, error strategies make it difficult explain why particular pooling layer numbering works better than any other.

Language: Английский

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Survey completeness of a global citizen‐science database of bird occurrence

Ecography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 43(1), P. 34 - 43

Published: Oct. 22, 2019

Measuring the completeness of survey inventories created by citizen‐science initiatives can identify strengths and shortfalls in our knowledge where species occur geographically. Here, we use occurrence information from eBird to measure world's birds this database at three temporal resolutions four spatial across annual cycle during period 2002 2018. Approximately 84% earth's terrestrial surface contained bird with greatest concentrations occurring North America, Europe, India, Australia New Zealand. The largest regions low levels were located central South northern Africa, Asia. Across resolutions, was 55–74% on average, highest values coarser spring migration within temperate boreal regions. exceeded 90% ca 4–14% surface. Survey increased globally 2018 all months year a rate 3% yr –1 . slowest gains occurred Africa montane regions, most rapid India tropical forests after 2012. Thus, global program for charismatic well‐studied taxon geographically broad but heterogeneous patterns that strongly influenced especially resolution. Our results application additional effort would address current shortfalls, maintenance existing benefit long‐term monitoring efforts. findings highlight potential citizen science further space time, whose applications under change will likely increase.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation metrics and validation of presence-only species distribution models based on distributional maps with varying coverage

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Abstract We examine how different datasets, including georeferenced hardcopy maps of extents and herbarium specimens (spanning the range from 100 to 85,000 km 2 ) influence ecological niche modeling. check 13 available environmental modeling algorithms, using 30 metrics score their validity evaluate which are useful for selection best model. The validation is made an independent dataset comprised presences absences collected in a range-wide field survey Carpathian endemic plant Leucanthemum rotundifolium (Compositae). Our analysis models’ predictive performances indicates that almost all datasets may be used construction species distributional range. Both very local general can produce predictions, more detailed than original ranges. Results also highlight possibility data manually archival sources reconstructions aimed at establishing species’ niches. discuss possible applications those associated problems. For evaluation models, we suggest employing AUC, MAE, Bias. show example AUC MAE combined select model with performance.

Language: Английский

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Target‐group backgrounds prove effective at correcting sampling bias in Maxent models

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 28(1), P. 128 - 141

Published: Nov. 19, 2021

Abstract Aim Accounting for sampling bias is the greatest challenge facing presence‐only and presence‐background species distribution models; no matter what type of model chosen, using biased data will mask true relationship between occurrences environmental predictors. To address this issue, we review four established correction techniques, empirical with known effort, virtual distributions. Innovation Occurrence come from a national recording scheme hoverflies ( Syrphidae ) in Great Britain, spanning 1983 – 2002. Target‐group backgrounds, distance‐restricted travel time to cities human population density were used account 58 hoverfly. Distributions generated by techniques compared geographical space produced accounting Schoener's distance, centroid shifts range size changes. validate our results, performed same comparisons 50 randomly species. We effort hoverfly structure regime, emulating complex real‐life bias. Main conclusions Models made without any typically distributions that mapped rather than underlying habitat suitability. backgrounds best at unbiased occurrences, but also showed signs overcompensation places. Other methods better no‐correction, often differences difficult visually detect. In line previous studies, when unknown, target‐group provide useful tool reducing effect should be inspected biological realism identify areas potential overcompensation. Given disparity corrected un‐corrected models, constitutes major source error modelling, more research needed confidently issue.

Language: Английский

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Testing methods in species distribution modelling using virtual species: what have we learnt and what are we missing?

Ecography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 42(12), P. 2021 - 2036

Published: June 9, 2019

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become one of the major predictive tools in ecology. However, multiple methodological choices are required during modelling process, some which may a large impact on forecasting results. In this context, virtual species, i.e. use simulations involving fictitious species for we perfect knowledge its occurrence–environment relationships and other relevant characteristics, increasingly popular to test SDMs. This approach provides simple ecologist framework under model properties, as well effects different choices, allows teasing out targeted factors with great certainty. simplification is therefore very useful setting up standards best practice principles. As result, numerous studies been published over last decade. The topics covered include differences performance between statistical models, sample size, choice threshold values, methods generate pseudo‐absences presence‐only data, among many others. These already made contribution practices Recent software developments greatly facilitated simulation at least three packages that effect. procedure has not homogeneous, introduces subtleties interpretation results, across packages. Here 1) review main contributions SDM literature; 2) compare approaches packages; 3) propose set recommendations future context

Language: Английский

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Improving species distribution model predictive accuracy using species abundance: Application with boosted regression trees

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 432, P. 109202 - 109202

Published: July 24, 2020

Language: Английский

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European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 22(1), P. 212 - 225

Published: Oct. 21, 2020

Abstract The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve way we project effects future warming fisheries. While estimating climate‐induced changes distribution an important contribution sustainable resource management, European small pelagic fish—representing 50% landings Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, investigated potential spatial seven most harvested species Europe under several change scenarios 21st century. For each species, considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation (GCMs) three emission (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that environmental suitability for may strongly decrease western North while Baltic Seas. This northward range expansion supported by strong convergence among projections low variability RCPs. pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected south‐eastern basin. Our highlight multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach needed produce more robust ecological order better anticipate economic social consequences global change.

Language: Английский

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