Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages DOI
Mario R. Moura, Fellipe Alves Ozorio do Nascimento, Lucas N. Paolucci

et al.

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 111(8), P. 1762 - 1776

Published: June 26, 2023

Abstract Climate emergency is a significant threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but species will not be equally affected. In summing up responses of different at local scale, we can assess changes quantity and composition biotic assemblages. We used more than 420K curated occurrence records 3060 plant model current future patterns distribution one world's largest tropical dry forests—the Caatinga. While allowing extrapolation scenarios, estimated potential richness dryland assemblages response projected climate change, assessed how ecological generalism woodiness impacted by crisis. More 99% were lose 2060, with homogenisation—the decrease spatial beta diversity—forecasted 40% The replacement narrow‐range woody wide‐range non‐woody ones should impact least 90% Caatinga exacerbated loss was connected heterogenisation homogenisation Still, magnitude change impacts on differ according direction process. Synthesis . increase aridity forest decreasing vegetation diversity complexity. indicate erosion ecosystem services linked biomass productivity carbon storage. highlight importance long‐term conservation planning for maintaining forests.

Language: Английский

Implementation of species distribution models in Google Earth Engine DOI Creative Commons
Ramiro D. Crego, Jared A. Stabach, Grant M. Connette

et al.

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(5), P. 904 - 916

Published: Feb. 11, 2022

Abstract Aim Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a free Web‐based spatial analysis platform that requires only web browser and an Internet connection to programmatically access analyse data from its multi‐petabyte catalog of regularly updated satellite imagery (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel) other geospatial datasets. The high computing capacity GEE can make computationally demanding analyses more accessible researchers practitioners, especially those with limited advanced computational resources. Here, we present workflow in fit species distribution models, offering direct raster products obtain estimates habitat suitability. Innovation We implemented for modelling includes importing occurrence into the platform, selecting preparing predictor variables, performing model fitting or temporal split‐block cross‐validation techniques. three case studies demonstrate: (i) baseline SDM produces informative predictions, (ii) accounts variability variables study changes suitability over time (iii) complex incorporating thousands images at resolution. Main Conclusions Our allows users benefit speed performance without need significant infrastructure. This may be beneficial countries where power limited, as SDMs frequently require download, storage processing large also discuss key limitations implementing GEE, such user memory limits lack high‐level functions. include step‐by‐step guide general each presented facilitate implementation.

Language: Английский

Citations

58
Biological invasions reveal how niche change affects the transferability of species distribution models DOI Creative Commons
Chunlong Liu, Christian Wolter, Franck Courchamp

et al.

Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 103(8)

Published: April 7, 2022

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied to predict geographic ranges of species across space and time under the assumption niche conservatism (i.e., niches change very slowly). However, an increasing number studies reported evidence rapid changes time, which has sparked a widespread debate on whether SDMs can be transferred new areas or periods. Understanding how affect SDM transferability is thus crucial for future application improvement SDMs. Biological invasions provide opportunity address this question due geographically independent distributions diverse patterns between species' native introduced ranges. Here, we synthesized findings 217 from 50 elucidate effects spatial When was considered as categorical classification (conserved vs. shifted niches) in tests hypothesis, markedly lower with their range. measured numerical dynamics niches, high occupying similar environmental conditions both low more remaining unoccupied Surprisingly, presence points used developing turned out even stronger effect transferability. Our results reveal detrimental lack It necessary consider data quality improving SDMs, so that they better support conservation management policy decisions.

Language: Английский

Citations

46
Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century DOI
Guillaume Ghisbain, Wim Thiery, François Massonnet

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 628(8007), P. 337 - 341

Published: Sept. 13, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

34
Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands DOI Creative Commons
Jairo Patiño, Flavien Collart, Alain Vanderpoorten

et al.

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(10), P. 1245 - 1262

Published: July 27, 2023

Abstract Aim Understanding how grain size affects our ability to characterize species responses ongoing climate change is of crucial importance in the context an increasing awareness for substantial difference that exists between coarse spatial resolution macroclimatic data sets and microclimate actually experienced by organisms. Climate impacts on biodiversity are expected peak mountain areas, wherein differences macro microclimates precisely largest. Based a newly generated fine‐scale environmental Canary Islands, we assessed whether at 100 m able provide more accurate predictions than available 1 km resolution. We also analysed future suitability island endemic bryophytes differ depending grids. Location Islands. Time period Present (1979–2013) late‐century (2071–2100). Taxa Bryophytes. Methods compared accuracy using ensemble small models 14 Macaronesian bryophyte species. used two sets: CHELSA v1.2 (~1 km) CanaryClim v1.0 (100 m), downscaled version latter utilizing from local weather stations. encompasses five individual model intercomparison projects three warming shared socio‐economic pathways. Results Species distribution exhibited similar accuracy, but predicted buffered trends mid‐elevation ridges. consistently returned higher proportions suitable pixels (8%–28%) (0%–3%). Consequently, proportion occupy uncertain was with (3–8 species) (0–2 species). Main conclusions The impacted rather performance models. Our results highlight role fine‐resolution can play predicting potential both microrefugia new range under climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

25
Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages DOI
Mario R. Moura, Fellipe Alves Ozorio do Nascimento, Lucas N. Paolucci

et al.

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 111(8), P. 1762 - 1776

Published: June 26, 2023

Abstract Climate emergency is a significant threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but species will not be equally affected. In summing up responses of different at local scale, we can assess changes quantity and composition biotic assemblages. We used more than 420K curated occurrence records 3060 plant model current future patterns distribution one world's largest tropical dry forests—the Caatinga. While allowing extrapolation scenarios, estimated potential richness dryland assemblages response projected climate change, assessed how ecological generalism woodiness impacted by crisis. More 99% were lose 2060, with homogenisation—the decrease spatial beta diversity—forecasted 40% The replacement narrow‐range woody wide‐range non‐woody ones should impact least 90% Caatinga exacerbated loss was connected heterogenisation homogenisation Still, magnitude change impacts on differ according direction process. Synthesis . increase aridity forest decreasing vegetation diversity complexity. indicate erosion ecosystem services linked biomass productivity carbon storage. highlight importance long‐term conservation planning for maintaining forests.

Language: Английский

Citations

24