Species distribution models rarely predict the biology of real populations

Ecography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2022(6)

Published: Dec. 21, 2021

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology. In theory, SDMs capture (at least part of) species' ecological niches and can be to make inferences about the of suitable habitat for species interest. Because suitability is expected influence population demography, have been estimate a variety parameters, from occurrence genetic diversity. However, critical look at ability predict independent data across different aspects biology lacking. Here, we systematically reviewed literature, retrieving 201 studies that tested predictions against assessments occurrence, abundance, performance, Although there some support (~53% depending on how was assessed), predictive performance these declines progressively mean fitness, At same time, observed higher success among evaluated single versus multiple species, pointing possible publication bias. Thus, limited accuracy reported here may reflect best‐case scenario. We discuss limitations provide specific recommendations their use applications going forward. emphasize SDMs, especially when inform conservation decisions, should treated as hypotheses with rather than stand‐ins parameters seek know.

Language: Английский

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A quantitative review of abundance‐based species distribution models

Ecography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2022(1)

Published: Dec. 15, 2021

The contributions of species to ecosystem functions or services depend not only on their presence but also local abundance. Progress in predictive spatial modelling has largely focused occurrence rather than As such, limited guidance exists the most reliable methods explain and predict variation We analysed performance 68 abundance‐based distribution models fitted 800 000 standardised abundance records for more terrestrial bird reef fish species. found a large amount models. While many performed poorly, subset consistently reconstructed range‐wide patterns. best predictions were obtained using random forests frequently encountered abundant within same environmental domain as model calibration. Extending outside conditions used training generated poor predictions. Thus, interpolation abundances between observations can help improve understanding patterns, our results indicate extrapolated under changing climate have much greater uncertainty. Our synthesis provides road map key property distributions that underpins theoretical applied questions ecology conservation.

Language: Английский

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Dimensions of invasiveness: Links between local abundance, geographic range size, and habitat breadth in Europe’s alien and native floras

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(22)

Published: May 28, 2021

Significance Invasive alien species pose major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. However, identifying drivers of invasion success has been challenging, in part because can achieve invasiveness different ways, each corresponding aspects demographics distribution. Employing a multidimensional perspective Europe’s flora, we find generally fall along an axis from overall poor invaders super that become abundant, widespread, invade diverse habitats. Some deviate this pattern are recently introduced still spreading, but others represent atypical forms invasiveness. In addition traits ecological circumstances associated with (e.g., intercontinental introductions), explore invasions, providing increased clarity into processes.

Language: Английский

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Biodiversity Patterns Redefined in Environmental Space

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Ecological and evolutionary questions addressing diversity‐environment relationships have been evaluated almost entirely in geographic space, yet most hypotheses are formulated terms of environmental conditions. Recent examples evaluating macroecological patterns directly space suggest that such refocusing provides different perspectives on the mechanisms driving broad‐scale diversity. Yet, we lack both conceptual frameworks targeted studies to fully evaluate potential contribution a refocus. Here, focus concept by briefly reviewing its use ecology evolution suggesting avenues for further development. We encourage re‐evaluation dominated ecological theory since foundations with very simple shift lens, is, from geographical space. Focusing also crucial lens climate change research, enabling comprehensive evaluation biodiversity dynamics offering holistic view interplay between species their evolving environments. This enhances our ability predict adapt future changes, enriching understanding beyond more commonly done analyses.

Language: Английский

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Directional turnover towards larger‐ranged plants over time and across habitats

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 466 - 482

Published: Dec. 5, 2021

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories 1827 plant over time intervals up to 78 years at 141 sites mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements smaller- by larger-ranged Communities shifted parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these typically strong competitors, declines smaller-ranged could reflect not only abiotic drivers global change, but also biotic pressure increased competition. The ubiquitous component based on range size found here may partially reconcile findings no net loss local diversity loss, link community-scale macroecological processes such as homogenisation.

Language: Английский

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Fish depth redistributions do not allow maintenance of abundance in a region of rapid change

Oikos, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2023(8)

Published: May 2, 2023

For marine fishes, stressors such as ocean warming, biological invasions, and fisheries are suggested to drive depth redistributions. However, it is uncertain whether redistribution can act offset the fitness costs associated with adverse changing conditions allow species maintain abundance. To better understand relationship between global changes redistribution, we synthesized bottom trawl surveys spanning two decades in eastern Mediterranean Sea, a hotspot for warming ask three main questions: 1) have changed their distributions?, 2) patterns of change abundance? 3) do abundance differ by traits indigenous non‐indigenous (NIS)? We found that were highly variable. relative abundances exhibit deepening decreased while expanding increased. Cold‐water deepened more than warm‐water The majority fishes expanded ranges over time increased significant link species' thermal preference suggests may variable imply hypothesis track climate be too simplistic. Finally, at least Mediterranean, (IS) into colder waters was mostly reduced abundance, hence not sufficient ecological impacts change.

Language: Английский

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Power and Efficiency in Living Systems

Sci, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(2), P. 28 - 28

Published: May 6, 2024

Energy transformation powers change in the universe. In physical systems, maximal power (rate of energy input or output) may occur only at submaximal efficiency (output/input), conversely, power. My review and living systems various levels biological organization reveals that (1) trade-offs (negative correlations) between efficiency, as expected chiefly for resource-supply systems; (2) synergy (positive occurs resource use which result from (a) increasing allocation to production versus maintenance rate increases (b) natural selection eliminating organisms exceed a limit because deleterious speed-related effects; (3) productive indicates species-wide ‘fitness’, whereas acquisition local ‘adaptiveness’, viewed along body size spectrum within clades related species; (4) covariation across space time many scales; (5) energetic power/efficiency relates rates efficiencies/effectiveness nutrient/water uptake/use, functional performance activities, information acquisition/processing; (6) approach has useful theoretical practical applications deserving more study.

Language: Английский

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The effectiveness of species distribution models in predicting local abundance depends on model grain size

Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 105(2)

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict local abundance has been often proposed and contested. We tested whether SDMs at different spatiotemporal resolutions may the density 14 bird open/semi-open habitats. were built 1 ha km, with long-term versus a mix current climatic variables. estimated environmental suitability was used obtained by means 275 linear transects. SDM ability for all sampled sites occurrence sites, using N-mixture account imperfect detection. Then, we related R

Language: Английский

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Different sets of traits explain abundance and distribution patterns of European plants at different spatial scales

Journal of Vegetation Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 32(2)

Published: March 1, 2021

Abstract Aim Plant functional traits summarize the main variability in plant form and function across taxa biomes. We assess whether geographic range size, climatic niche local abundance of plants can be predicted by sets (trait syndromes) or are driven single traits. Location Eurasia. Methods Species distribution maps were extracted from Chorological Database Halle to derive information on size for 456 herbaceous, dwarf shrub species. estimated species abundances based 740,113 vegetation plots European Vegetation Archive, where available as cover per plot. compiled a complete species‐by‐trait matrix 20 trait databases (TRY, BiolFlor CLO‐PLA). The relationships species’ with syndromes tested multiple linear regression models. Results Generally, more strongly related than broad‐scale patterns space (range size), but both better combinations Local increased leaf area specific (SLA). Geographic SLA. While height, decreased carbon content. Conclusion Functional matter at broad scale. associated different compared distributions, pointing filtering environmental ecological factors acting distinct spatial scales. However, economics spectrum important occurrence This finding emphasizes general importance resource acquisition strategies

Language: Английский

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Weak but consistent abundance–occupancy relationships across taxa, space and time

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(5), P. 968 - 977

Published: March 1, 2022

Abstract Aim Abundance–occupancy relationships posit that more locally abundant species occupy sites than less species. Although widely supported, the occurrence and detection of abundance–occupancy is sensitive to sampling processes. Data from large‐scale standardized efforts are key address relationships. We aimed use such a dataset evaluate across different spatial grains over time for aquatic terrestrial taxa. Location USA. Time period 2014–2019. Major taxa studied Birds, mammals, beetles, ticks, fishes, macroinvertebrates zooplankton. Methods Species abundance occupancy data were obtained National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). mean (fraction sampled locations occupied) estimated three (i.e., plot, site domain) all years sampled. Linear models used explore consistency interspecific The slope coefficients these related temporal variables richness while controlling in linear mixed‐effects model (LMM) framework. Results found evidence positive we studied. However, our had low explanatory power, suggesting relationships, although general, weak. slightly stronger at smallest grain largest grain, but showed no detectable change any Finally, was not associated with strength Main conclusions Together, results suggest fairly general capable explaining substantial variation patterns abundance, other factors, as traits niche, also likely influence

Language: Английский

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