Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot DOI Creative Commons
Yeray Santana‐Falcón, A. Yamamoto, Andrew Lenton

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 9, 2023

Abstract Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are altering marine ecosystems. Current knowledge suggests that these changes might be reversible in centennial timescale ocean surface irreversible at deeper depth if global were to decline. However, on persistence their combined effects ecosystems remains limited. Here we explore what extent will drive alterations habitats by following evolution a metabolic index captures ecophysiological response organisms both temperature oxygen, through an idealised ramp-up ramp-down atmospheric CO 2 concentration experiment. Using multi-model approach, find oxygen drives centuries-long loss ~4% habitable volume upper 1000 m world ocean. These results suggest effect diminish capability hold life far after recovering from overshoot.

Language: Английский

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points DOI
David I. Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6611)

Published: Sept. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

1242
Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales DOI Creative Commons
Timothy M. Lenton, Jesse F. Abrams, Annett Bartsch

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 6, 2024

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play unique role in identifying anticipating phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short temporal early warning points, complementary spatial indicators leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with system models improve process-based understanding their interactions, potential cascades. Such fine-resolution support point management

Language: Английский

Citations

33
Assessment of technologies and economics for carbon dioxide removal from a portfolio perspective DOI Creative Commons
Andreas Mühlbauer, Dominik Keiner, Christoph Gerhards

et al.

International journal of greenhouse gas control, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 141, P. 104297 - 104297

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs? DOI Creative Commons
Sina Loriani, Annett Bartsch, Elisa Calamita

et al.

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 18, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting? DOI Creative Commons
Didier Swingedouw, Marie‐Noëlle Houssais, Christophe Herbaut

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: April 4, 2022

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial element of the Earth climate. It complex circulation system difficult to monitor and model. There considerable debate regarding its evolution over last century as well large uncertainty about fate at end this century. We depict here progress since IPCC SROCC report, offering an update chapter 6.7. also show new results from high-resolution ocean model CMIP6 investigate impact Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting, key for past future AMOC changes. ocean-only simulation 1/24° resolution in Arctic-North Ocean performed period 2004–2016 indicates that spread freshwater runoff toward center Labrador Sea, where oceanic convection occurs, seems larger than Potential explanations are related spatial representation mesoscale processes, which more realistically transport released around shelves and, through eddies, provides strong lateral exchanges between fine-scale boundary current convective basin Sea. freshening Sea then strongly affects deep activity. In including GrIS weakens by 2 Sv after only 13 years, far what found This difference raises serious concerns on ability models correctly assess potential melting changes few decades fate. To gain confidence impacts climate simulations therefore projections, urgent should be made parameterization processes models.

Language: Английский

Citations

64
Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions DOI Creative Commons
Jörg Schwinger,

Ali Asaadi,

Nadine Goris

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: March 1, 2022

Abstract It is well established that a collapse or strong reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would substantially cool northern high latitudes. Here we show there possibility such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO 2 removal and result in temporary undershoot targeted temperature level. We find this behaviour Earth system models AMOC decline response to anthropogenic forcing. Idealized simulations with one these indicate timing negative emissions relative recovery key setting strength cooling. pronounced temperature-fluctuations at latitudes found entail considerable consequences for sea-ice permafrost extent as latitude ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

50
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction DOI Creative Commons
Simon Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Sept. 2, 2022

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate occurring in the North Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity drivers are widely debated due to short temporal extent instrumental observations competing effects both internal external factors acting surface temperature variability. Here, we use paleoclimate database an advanced statistical framework generate, evaluate, compare 312 reconstructions over past millennium, based different indices regression methods. From this process, best reconstruction obtained random forest method, robustness checked using model outputs independent oceanic data. This shows that memory variations have strongly increased recently-a potential early warning signal for approach tipping point.

Language: Английский

Citations

48
Non‐linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming DOI Creative Commons
Giovanni Sgubin, Didier Swingedouw, Emmanuel Mignot

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 808 - 826

Published: Nov. 14, 2022

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial adaptation planning in Europe. While new regions may emerge out of traditional boundaries, most present-day renowned winemaking be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse future evolution geography over Europe, through definition a novel indicator, which calculated projected grapevine phenological phases to account their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists coupling six different de-biased downscaled projections two scenarios warming with four models varieties. The resulting indicator based on fuzzy logic and three main components measuring (i) timing fruit physiological maturity, (ii) risk water stress (iii) pests diseases. results demonstrate that level largely determines distribution regions. For temperature increase limited 2°C above pre-industrial level, suitable areas are reduced about 4%/°C rise, while higher levels warming, rate this loss increases up 17%/°C. This compensated gradual emergence boundaries. Moreover, show reallocating better-suited varieties warmer conditions viable measure cope However, effectiveness strategy appears decrease as increases. Overall, these findings suggest existence safe limit below European sector, might become far more challenging beyond threshold.

Language: Английский

Citations

41
Abrupt Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of the North Atlantic Bloom Over the 21st Century DOI Creative Commons
Stephen Kelly, Ekaterina Popova, Andrew Yool

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is a key region for the bloom (NAB), phytoplankton foundation of regional food web. NAB depends on nutrients seasonally introduced into surface ocean by deep winter convection. Under climate change, this pattern threatened increasing water column stratification, representing potential “tipping point” in Earth system, and may “collapse” as result. We investigate changes mixing impacts SPG northern using spread future projections from low‐resolution system model (UKESM) high‐warming projection high‐resolution ocean‐only configuration same (NEMO‐MEDUSA). Both models project significant declines strength during 21st century. In UKESM, occurs across all projections, but with low spatiotemporal coherence. NEMO‐MEDUSA, mixed layer depth, nutrients, chlorophyll concentrations are abrupt more highly spatiotemporally correlated. find >30‐day phenological shift peak aligned timing which affect web dynamics. Defining halving chlorophyll, we that collapses century regardless projection. However, spatial‐temporal coherence abruptness collapse greater our model. Because physical processes driving biogeochemical responses poorly represented models, especially at high latitudes, suggests higher resolution be essential predicting irreversible changes, particularly those involving ecosystem

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot DOI Creative Commons
Yeray Santana‐Falcón, A. Yamamoto, Andrew Lenton

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Oct. 10, 2023

Abstract Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are altering marine ecosystems. Current knowledge suggests these changes may be reversible on a centennial timescale at ocean surface but irreversible deeper depths even if global were to ameliorate. In contrast, ecosystem’s response persistent remains poorly elucidated. Here we explore what extent drive alterations in habitats by exploring evolution metabolic index that captures organisms’ ecophysiological both temperature oxygen changes, throughout an idealised ramp-up/ramp-down atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration overshoot scenarios. Using multi-model approach; find centuries-long loss habitable volume upper 1000 m world ocean. These results suggest combined effect will have profound long-lasting impacts viability ecosystems, well after temperatures peaked.

Language: Английский

Citations

20