Scaling and Complexity in Landscape Ecology

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Aug. 13, 2019

Landscapes and the ecological processes they support are inherently complex systems, in that have large numbers of heterogeneous interacting components, interact multiple ways, exhibit scale dependence, non-linear dynamics, emergent properties. The properties landscapes encompass a broad range influence biodiversity, ecosystem processes, human environments. These properties, such as nutrient cycling, dispersal, evolutionary adaptation organisms to their environments, focus this article, disturbance regimes (including wildfire), operate at scales relevant societies, but these also often which dynamics most difficult understand predict. Modeling interactions landscape scale, including future states biological communities with each other fire, requires quantitative metrics algorithms minimize error propagation across scales. We identify three intrinsic limitations progress ecology, ecology general: (1) problem coarse-graining, or how aggregate fine-scale information larger statistically unbiased manner; (2) middle-number problem, describes systems elements too few varied be amenable global averaging, numerous computationally tractable; (3) non-stationarity, modeled relationships parameter choices valid one environment may not hold when projected onto environments warming climate. illustrate challenges examples drawn from context wildfire. Quantitative scaling key moving forward, we review recent paths developing laws ecology. incorporate concepts compression state spaces complexity theory suggest ways overcome problems presented by domain, non-stationarity.

Language: Английский

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The challenge of novel abiotic conditions for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts

Ecography, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 43(11), P. 1571 - 1590

Published: Sept. 29, 2020

Coincident with recent global warming, species have shifted their geographic distributions to cooler environments, generally by moving along thermal axes higher latitudes, elevations or deeper waters. While these shifts allow organisms track niche, three also covary non‐climatic abiotic factors that could pose challenges range‐shifting plants and animals. Such novel conditions present an unappreciated pitfall for researchers – from both empirical predictive viewpoints who study the redistribution of under climate change. Climate, particularly temperature, is often assumed be primary factor in limiting distributions, decades biology research made correlative mechanistic understanding temperature most accessible commonly used response any factor. Receiving far less attention, however, gradients oxygen, light, pressure, pH water availability latitude, elevation, and/or ocean depth, show strong physiological behavioral adaptations variables within historic ranges. Here, we discuss how may disrupt climate‐driven range shifts, as well variety use overcome conditions, emphasizing which taxa limited this capacity. We highlight need scientists extend incorporate non‐climatic, create a more ecologically relevant animals interact environment, face demonstrate additional can integrated into change better inform expectations provide recommendations addressing challenge predicting future environments.

Language: Английский

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On the prevalence of uninformative parameters in statistical models applying model selection in applied ecology

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. e0206711 - e0206711

Published: Feb. 7, 2019

Research in applied ecology provides scientific evidence to guide conservation policy and management. Applied is becoming increasingly quantitative model selection via information criteria has become a common statistical modeling approach. Unfortunately, parameters that contain little no useful are commonly presented interpreted as important ecology. I review the concept of an uninformative parameter using perform literature measure prevalence studies applying Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) 2014 four top journals (Biological Conservation, Conservation Biology, Ecological Applications, Journal Ecology). Twenty-one percent reviewed AIC metrics. Many (31.5%) metrics had or were very likely have set. In addition, more than 40% insufficient assess presence absence Given with status (71.5%), surmise much recommendations based on research may not be supported by data analysis. provide warning signals decision tree assist authors, reviewers, editors screen for criteria. end, careful thinking at every step process greater reporting standards required detect adopting

Language: Английский

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Dry season habitat use of fishes in an Australian tropical river

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: April 5, 2019

Abstract The modification of river flow regimes poses a significant threat to the world’s freshwater ecosystems. Northern Australia’s resources, particularly dry season flows, are being increasingly modified support human development, potentially threatening aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, including fish. More information is urgently needed on ecology fishes in this region, their habitat requirements, water policy management ensure future sustainable development. This study used electrofishing survey methods quantify use 20 common fish taxa Daly River wet-dry tropics. Of twenty measured variables, depth velocity were two most important factors discriminating for majority taxa. Four distinct guilds identified, largely classified according depth, structural complexity. Ontogenetic shifts also observed three species. highlights need maintain flows that diversity riverine mesohabitats fishes. In particular, shallow fast-flowing areas provided critical nursery refuge habitats some species, but vulnerable level reductions due extraction. By highlighting importance fishes, assists managers decision making ecological risks extractions from tropical rivers, especially low protect native

Language: Английский

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The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 89(2)

Published: Jan. 24, 2019

Abstract Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error ( FE ) usual measure success; however model predictions provide no insights into potential for improvement. In short, realized predictability specific uninformative about whether system inherently predictable or chosen poor match our observations thereof. Ideally, proficiency would be judged with respect to systems’ intrinsic predictability, highest achievable given degree which dynamics result deterministic vs. stochastic processes. Intrinsic may quantified permutation entropy PE ), model‐free, information‐theoretic complexity time series. By means simulations, we show correlation exists between estimated how stochasticity, process error, affect relationship. This relationship verified data set 461 empirical ecological We deviations from expected – related covariates quality nonlinearity dynamics. These results demonstrate theoretically grounded basis model‐free evaluation system's predictability. Identifying gap series will enable researchers understand limited by quantity their ability explain data. also provides baseline against modeling efforts can evaluated.

Language: Английский

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The origin of urban communities: From the regional species pool to community assemblages in city

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 47(3), P. 615 - 629

Published: Jan. 6, 2020

Abstract Aim Cities worldwide are characterized by unique human stressors that filter species based on their traits, potentially leading to biodiversity loss. The knowledge of which filtered and at scale is important gain a more mechanistic understanding urban community assembly develop strategies manage impact ecosystems. We investigate the ecological mechanisms shaping assembly, taking into account changes across scales, taxa green space types. Location City Zurich, Switzerland. Taxon Carabid beetles wild bees. Methods use large occurrence trait dataset with high spatial resolution assess filtering effect medium‐sized city regional pool potential colonists. then from five widely distributed types spaces. Results found our model selects for functionally similar but taxonomically diverse bee carabid beetle pool. Within city, processes vary among resulting in taxonomic functional composition. Main conclusions Our findings suggest multi‐scale process dominated strong environmental an This leads selection pre‐adapted conditions. Spatial habitat heterogeneity within UGS can maintain diversity cities. However, increasing would require stronger management efforts consider processes.

Language: Английский

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Rethinking the ecological drivers of hominin evolution

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 36(9), P. 797 - 807

Published: May 29, 2021

Research aiming to understand the role of ecological change in hominin evolution has fueled generation paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental records across Africa. Limitations conventional methods for inferring ecology–evolution relationships mean that more data have not always led a deeper understanding evolution. We outline several challenges hindered progress, highlight how recent research is addressing them. This confronting limitations fossil record, contending with proxy spanning range spatiotemporal scales, providing stronger inferential approach hypothesis testing. Addressing obstacles progress will enable robust between A central goal paleoanthropology Over past decades researchers expanded record assembled detailed late Cenozoic paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, paleoecological archives. However, effective use these precluded by pattern-matching strategies causal evolutionary change. examine them (i) an incomplete (ii) datasets varied (iii) using theoretical frameworks build inferences. Expanding on this work promises transform into opportunities set stage new phase paleoanthropological research. molecular fossils (e.g., organic compounds) are preserved soils sedimentary records, which indicative environments, climates, fire regimes. geology, region Earth's surface where there net accumulation deposits over time may also preserve record. physical environment rocks formed floodplains, rivers, lakes, oceans) identified basis lithofacies characteristics sediment type bedding structures). respectively, oldest youngest appearance taxon together define observed temporal taxon. These dates frequently revised discoveries. computer simulations illustrating macroscale patterns emerge through microscale interactions individual system components time. macroscopic wear animal's teeth result from processing foods different mechanical properties. microscopic observations based natural systems. In taphonomy, example, refers studies taphonomic processes bone consumption carnivores) absence experimental manipulation. known as Milankovitch cycles, cyclical variations Earth;'s orbit (eccentricity, precession, obliquity) drive climate geological timescales. CaCO3 precipitated during soil formation, usually seasonally dry environments. They carbon oxygen isotope ratios reflect dominant vegetation or water dynamics evaporation), respectively. spatial scales process phenomenon occurs. paleoecology, extents often local continental, years millions years. study involved formation death, decay, scavenging, burial, mineralization), affect information samples life. number species biotic community; context clade, evidence it included than one at any given outcome control much represented assemblage (taphonomic time-averaging), analytical decisions concerning aggregate stratigraphic horizons localities (analytical time-averaging). composition speciation, extinction, dispersal. model macroevolutionary developed Elisabeth S. Vrba climate-driven changes habitats leads synchronous peak turnover (extinction, dispersal) multiple lineages. applied African proposing global cooling 2.8 2.5 Ma major pulse first Homo Paranthropus [51.Vrba E.S. The antelopes (Mammalia, Bovidae) relation human paleoclimate.in: Paleoclimate Evolution Emphasis Human Origins. Yale University Press, 1995: 385-424Google Scholar,68.Vrba Mammals key theory.J. Mammal. 1992; 73: 1-28Crossref Scopus (277) Google Scholar].

Language: Английский

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A roadmap towards predicting species interaction networks (across space and time)

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 376(1837), P. 20210063 - 20210063

Published: Sept. 20, 2021

Networks of species interactions underpin numerous ecosystem processes, but comprehensively sampling these is difficult. Interactions intrinsically vary across space and time, given the number that compose ecological communities, it can be tough to distinguish between a true negative (where two never interact) from false have not been observed interacting even though they actually do). Assessing likelihood an imperative for several fields ecology. This means predict species-and describe structure, variation, change networks form-we need rely on modelling tools. Here, we provide proof-of-concept, where show how simple neural network model makes accurate predictions about limited data. We then assess challenges opportunities associated with improving interaction predictions, conceptual roadmap forward towards predictive models explicitly spatial temporal. conclude brief primer relevant methods tools needed start building models, which hope will guide this research programme forward. article part theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity dynamics globe'.

Language: Английский

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Comparing sample bias correction methods for species distribution modeling using virtual species

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(3)

Published: March 1, 2021

Abstract A key assumption in species distribution modeling (SDM) with presence‐background (PB) methods is that sampling of occurrence localities unbiased and any bias proportional to the background environmental covariates. This rarely met when SDM practitioners rely on federated museum records from natural history collections for geo‐located occurrences due inherent found these collections. We use a simulation approach explore effectiveness three developed account PB frameworks. Two careful filtering observation data—geographic thinning (G‐Filter) (E‐Filter)—while third, FactorBiasOut, creates selection weights data locations toward areas where dataset was sampled. While have been assessed previously, evaluation has emphasized spatial predictions habitat potential. Here, we dig deeper into by exploring how not only affects potential, but also our understanding niche characteristics such as which explanatory variables response curves best represent species–environment relationships. simulate 100 virtual ranging generalist specialist their preferences introduce geographic at intensity levels measure each correction method (1) predict true probability across study area, (2) recover relationships, (3) identify variables. find FactorBiasOut most often showed greatest improvement recreating known distributions did no better correctly identifying covariates or relationships than G‐Filter E‐Filter methods. Narrow are problematic biased calibration datasets, can, some cases, make worse.

Language: Английский

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The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 746 - 756

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls an increased emphasis on prediction ecology, the potential to accelerate theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide conceptual framework describing how forecasts can energize advance theory. We emphasize opportunities future progress this area through forecast development, comparison synthesis. Our describes approach shed new light existing theories while also allowing researchers address novel questions. Through rigorous repeated testing hypotheses, help refine understand their generality across Meanwhile, synthesizing allows about relative predictability variables horizons scales. envision where is integrated as part toolset used fundamental ecology. By outlining relevance theory, aim decrease barriers entry broaden community using insight.

Language: Английский

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