Modelling time-series Aedes albopictus abundance as a forecasting tool in urban environments

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 150, P. 110232 - 110232

Published: April 8, 2023

Aedes albopictus is an invasive mosquito species that can maintain and transmit several arboviruses causing disease in humans. Understanding the determinants of its ecology population dynamics to predict abundance was main objective this study. Adult mosquitoes were captured weekly between 2009 2016 with BG sentinel traps baited BG-Lure outdoors at a collection site within urban area Palermo (southern Italy). In parallel, 2012 2016, we monitored uninterrupted Ae. four additional sites nearby over about two hectares. Catches collected three times per week identified morphologically. To identify abundance, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average Poisson regression models fitted series weather predictors potentially modulate activity dynamics. The time lag influence analysed intergenerational environmental A cross-validation predictive accuracy different carried out select best model. Over 7 years 12,152 first trap another 58,710 trapping traps. highly seasonal, mid-March late December, highest abundances July September, peak autumn. potential model further externally validated data from other traps, showing high capacity very good fit seasonality peaks. Relative humidity, vapour saturation deficit wind speed as albopictus. results obtained will allow accurate prediction coastal Mediterranean areas design ad-hoc measures for efficient environmentally sustainable control.

Language: Английский

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Epidemiologic Survey of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in Suids, Spain

Emerging infectious diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(5)

Published: April 25, 2024

We conducted a cross-sectional study in wild boar and extensively managed Iberian pig populations hotspot area of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) Spain. tested for antibodies against CCHFV by using 2 ELISAs parallel. assessed the presence RNA means reverse transcription quantitative PCR protocol, which detects all genotypes. A total 113 (21.8%) 518 suids sampled showed ELISA. By species, 106 (39.7%) 267 boars 7 (2.8%) 251 pigs analyzed were seropositive. Of 231 analyzed, none positive RNA. These findings indicate high exposure endemic areas confirm susceptibility reared to CCHFV, even though they may only play limited role enzootic cycle.

Language: Английский

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Animal Exposure Model for Mapping Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Emergence Risk

Emerging infectious diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(4)

Published: March 22, 2024

Abstract To estimate the determinants of spatial variation in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) transmission and to create a risk map as preventive public health tool, we designed survey small domestic ruminants Andalusia, Spain. assess CCHFV exposure distribution, analyzed serum from 2,440 sheep goats by using double-antigen ELISA modeled probability with environmental predictors generalized linear mixed models. antibodies detected 84 samples confirmed low prevalence region. The best-fitted statistical model indicated that most significant were cattle/horse density normalized difference vegetation index. Model validation showed 99.7% specificity 10.2% sensitivity for identifying circulation areas. risk, projected at 1 × 1-km resolution. Our study provides insight into ecology is useful preventing transmission.

Language: Английский

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Modelling the small spatial scale questing abundance of Hyalomma lusitanicum Koch, 1844 (Acari: Ixodidae), vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus

International Journal for Parasitology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Modeling the spatiotemporal questing density of Rhipicephalus bursa and Hyalomma lusitanicum in central-southern Spain: insights for tick-borne pathogen transmission risk

Published: April 22, 2025

Free-living ticks Rhipicephalus bursa and Hyalomma lusitanicum represent a significant risk to their hosts primarily due role as vectors of infectious diseases, with Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever an emerging public health concern in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Both species are distributed across Peninsula, H. mainly central southern regions, R. throughout entire region. However, differences behaviour ecology both have been observed distribution ranges. Currently, factors determining spatiotemporal abundances two within areas remain unknown, well whether exist among populations. From 2004 2006 from 2019 2023, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at eight sites regions central-southern Spain estimate variation questing density bursa. The temporal spatial modelled relation variations local biotic abiotic environmental conditions by employing generalized linear mixed models negative binomial for zero-inflated models. primary factor abundance pattern is seasonality, while influenced high habitat favourability red deer adequate humidity. result enables development maps species. Furthermore, could serve foundation constructing more precise predictive identify windows highest potential interactions between animals/humans lusitanicum, which may facilitate transmission tick-borne pathogens.

Language: Английский

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Mapping the risk of exposure to Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the Iberian Peninsula using Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) as a model

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 102281 - 102281

Published: Nov. 22, 2023

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonotic pathogen that can cause lethal disease in humans. Although the appears to be endemically established Iberian Peninsula, CCHF an emerging Spain. Clinical signs of CCHFV infection are mainly manifested humans, but replicates several animal species. Understanding determinants exposure risk from models essential predicting high-risk hotspots for public health action. With this objective mind, we designed cross-sectional study Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) Spain and Portugal. The analysed 5,291 sera collected between 2006 2022 90 populations with specific double-antigen ELISA estimate serum prevalence identify main probability. To do so, statistically modelled host- environment-related predictors spatially projected it at 10 × km square resolution scale Peninsula map foci risk. Fifty-seven (63.3 %) had least one seropositive animal, seroprevalence ranging 0.0 88.2 %. Anti-CCHFV antibodies were found 1,026 (19.4 %; 95 % confidence interval: 18.3–20.5 %), highest rates southwestern Iberia. most relevant abundance, local rainfall regime, shrub cover, winter air temperature soil variation. spatial projection best-fit model identified as occurring western Iberia recently confirmed eastern results demonstrate serological surveys vector hosts powerful, robust highly informative tool authorities take action prevent human cases enzootic emergency settings.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus abundance in northern Spain

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 102373 - 102373

Published: July 3, 2024

Ixodes ricinus is the most medically relevant tick species in Europe because it transmits pathogens that cause Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Northern Spain represents southernmost margin of its main European range has highest rate hospitalisations country. Currently, environmental determinants spatiotemporal patterns I. abundance remain unknown this region these may differ from drivers highly favourable areas for Europe. Therefore, our study aimed to understand factors modulating questing population dynamics map northern Spain. From 2012 2014, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at 13 sites two regions estimate variation abundance. Local was modelled relation local biotic abiotic conditions by constructing generalised linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution overdispersed data. The different developmental stages active times year. Adults nymphs showed peak spring, while larvae more frequent summer. affecting related humidity temperature. For adults larvae, summer seemed be influential period their abundance, nymphs, winter those preceding months determining factors. abundances predicted hospitalisations. Our could basis on which build accurate predictive identify windows greatest potential interaction between animals/humans lead transmission ricinus-borne pathogens.

Language: Английский

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Determinants of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever virus exposure dynamics in Mediterranean environments

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 69(6), P. 3571 - 3581

Published: Oct. 2, 2022

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging tick-borne human disease in Spain. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and exposure risk determinants of CCHF virus (CCHFV) animal models essential to predict time areas highest transmission risk. With this goal, we designed a longitudinal survey two wild ungulate species, red deer (Cervus elaphus) Eurasian boar (Sus scrofa), Doñana National Park, protected Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot with high CCHFV vector abundance, which also one main stopover sites for migratory birds between Africa western Europe. Both ungulates are hosts principal Spain, Hyalomma lusitanicum. We sampled annually from 2005 2020 analysed frequency by double-antigen ELISA. The annual was modelled as function environmental traits approach understanding that allow us most likely places years transmission. findings show H. lusitanicum abundance fundamental driver fine-scale spatial risk, while inter-annual variation conditioned virus/vector hosts, host community structure weather variations. relevant conclusion study emergence Spain might be associated recent population changes promoting higher abundance. This work provides insights into enzootic scenarios would deepening ecology its major determinants.

Language: Английский

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Insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission in emerging scenarios

One Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16, P. 100557 - 100557

Published: May 1, 2023

The incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) is highly variable in emerging areas, making it difficult to identify risk periods. Using clinical case records has important biases understanding the transmission dynamics virus (WNV) because asymptomatic infections are frequent. However, estimating exposure sentinel species could help achieve this goal at varying spatiotemporal scales. To determinants inter-annual variation WNV rates, we designed a 15-year longitudinal seroepidemiological study (2005-2020) five environmentally diverse areas southwestern Spain. We modeled individual annual area-dependent based on potential environmental and host predictors using generalized linear mixed models. Further, analyzed weight probability by variance partitioning model components. analysis 2418 wild ungulate sera (1168 red deer - Cervus elaphus 1250 Eurasian boar Sus scrofa) with sensitive commercial blocking ELISA identified an average seroprevalence 24.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.2-26.7%). Antibody prevalence was slightly higher (27.5%; CI: 25.1-30.1%) than (22.2%; 19.8-24.7%). observed spatial trend exposure, frequency southernmost slight, although area-dependent, increasing temporal trend. Host-related were drivers risk. predictor highest cumulative precipitation, while temperature variations also relevant but less weight. coincidence changes notification WNF outbreaks horses humans. That indicates usefulness ungulates as sentinels for models understand its dynamics. These results will allow development more accurate predictive that can inform health authorities take appropriate action.

Language: Английский

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Approaching the complexity of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus serology: A study in swine

Journal of Virological Methods, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 326, P. 114915 - 114915

Published: March 12, 2024

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonotic orthonairovirus of public health concern and widespread geographic distribution. Several animal species are known to seroconvert after infection with CCHFV without showing clinical symptoms. The commercial availability multi-species ELISA has led an increase in recent serosurveillance studies as well the range reported be exposed field, including wild boar (Sus scrofa). However, development validation confirmatory serological tests for swine based on different antigens or test principles hampered by lack defined control sera from infected non-infected animals. For detection anti-CCHFV antibodies swine, we established swine-specific in-house using panel CCHFV-free regions circulation. We initially screened more than 700 serum samples domestic pigs observed correlation ≃67% between test. From these sera, selected 60 that were further analyzed newly indirect immunofluorescence assay (iIFA) neutralization ELISA-non-reactive tested negative. Interestingly, only subset reactive both iIFA displayed CCHFV-neutralizing antibodies. partial discrepancy may explained sensitivities, antibody cross-reactivities suggests immune response not necessarily associated eliciting neutralizing Overall, this study highlights meaningful serology possibly other species, should involve performance multiple careful interpretation results.

Language: Английский

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