Engineering Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Dec. 19, 2024
ABSTRACT Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health challenge, claiming over 2 million lives annually, predominantly among adults. Existing TB models often neglect seasonal variations, optimal control, and reinfection, limiting their accuracy in predicting disease dynamics. This study presents novel data‐driven SVEITRS mathematical model incorporating these factors to analyze transmission Employing the next‐generation matrix approach, basic reproduction number of 1.005341 was calculated, suggesting that without robust public interventions, may persist Kenya. The equations were solved numerically using fourth‐ fifth‐order Runge–Kutta methods, with forward–backward sweep technique applied control problem. fitted historical incidence data for Kenya from 2000 2022 lsqcurvefit algorithm MATLAB software. fitting yielded mean absolute error (MAE) 0.0069, demonstrating close alignment between simulated observed data. optimized parameter values used project future Key findings indicate 20% decrease rate coupled 5% increase vaccine efficacy, while maintaining other parameters constant, would result 32.60% reduction Moreover, is expected an estimated 17 cases per 100,000 people by 2045 sustained efforts development awareness campaigns. highly efficacious vaccines emerges as most cost‐effective strategy combating Policymakers should prioritize investing deployment achieve outcomes economic benefits, aligning Kenya's Vision 2030.
Language: Английский