Bundesgesundheitsblatt - Gesundheitsforschung - Gesundheitsschutz,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
64(9), P. 1058 - 1066
Published: July 30, 2021
After
the
global
outbreak
of
COVID-19
pandemic,
an
infection
dynamic
immense
extent
developed.
Since
then,
numerous
measures
have
been
taken
to
bring
under
control.
This
was
very
successful
in
spring
2020,
while
number
infections
rose
sharply
following
autumn.
To
predict
occurrence
infections,
epidemiological
models
are
used.
These
principle
a
valuable
tool
pandemic
management.
However,
they
still
partly
need
be
based
on
assumptions
regarding
transmission
routes
and
possible
drivers
dynamics.
Despite
individual
approaches,
systematic
data
lacking
with
which,
for
example,
effectiveness
could
quantified.
Such
information
generated
studies
is
needed
enable
reliable
predictions
further
course
pandemic.
Thereby,
complexity
develop
hand
available
data.
In
this
article,
after
delineating
two
basic
classes
models,
contribution
assessment
various
central
aspects
such
as
reproduction
rate,
unreported
cases,
fatality
consideration
regionality,
shown.
Subsequently,
use
quantify
impact
effects
"test-trace-isolate"
strategy
described.
concluding
discussion,
limitations
modelling
approaches
juxtaposed
their
advantages.
Frontiers in Public Health,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
11
Published: April 11, 2023
The
ongoing
COVID-19
pandemic
is
arguably
one
of
the
most
challenging
health
crises
in
modern
times.
development
effective
strategies
to
control
spread
SARS-CoV-2
were
major
goals
for
governments
and
policy
makers.
Mathematical
modeling
machine
learning
emerged
as
potent
tools
guide
optimize
different
measures.
This
review
briefly
summarizes
evolution
during
first
3
years.
It
details
main
public
challenges
focusing
on
contribution
mathematical
design
government
action
plans
mitigation
interventions
SARS-CoV-2.
Next
describes
application
methods
a
series
study
cases,
including
clinical
diagnosis,
analysis
epidemiological
variables,
drug
discovery
by
protein
engineering
techniques.
Lastly,
it
explores
use
investigating
long
COVID,
identifying
patterns
relationships
symptoms,
predicting
risk
indicators,
enabling
early
evaluation
sequelae.
PLoS ONE,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
19(3), P. e0299880 - e0299880
Published: March 12, 2024
Diagnostic
testing
followed
by
isolation
of
identified
cases
with
subsequent
tracing
and
quarantine
close
contacts—often
referred
to
as
test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine
(TTIQ)
strategy—is
one
the
cornerstone
measures
infectious
disease
control.
The
COVID-19
pandemic
has
highlighted
that
an
appropriate
response
outbreaks
diseases
requires
a
firm
understanding
effectiveness
such
containment
strategies.
To
this
end,
mathematical
models
provide
promising
tool.
In
work,
we
present
delay
differential
equation
model
TTIQ
interventions
for
Our
incorporates
assumption
limited
capacities,
providing
insights
into
reduced
in
high
prevalence
scenarios.
addition,
account
potential
transmission
during
early
phase
infection,
including
presymptomatic
transmission,
which
may
be
particularly
adverse
based
numerical
experiments
inspired
spread
Germany
demonstrate
scenario
where
immunity
within
population
is
low
pharmaceutical
are
absent,
representative
typical
situation
(re-)emergence
therapeutic
drugs
or
vaccines
not
yet
available.
Stability
sensitivity
analyses
reveal
both
disease-dependent
disease-independent
factors
impede
enhance
success
TTIQ.
Studying
diminishing
impact
along
simulations
epidemic
wave,
highlight
consequences
intervention
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
122(9)
Published: Feb. 27, 2025
Faced
with
a
dangerous
epidemic
humans
will
spontaneously
social
distance
to
reduce
their
risk
of
infection
at
socioeconomic
cost.
Compartmentalized
models
have
been
extended
include
this
endogenous
decision
making:
Individuals
choose
behavior
optimize
utility
function,
self-consistently
giving
rise
population
behavior.
Here,
we
study
the
properties
resulting
Nash
equilibria,
in
which
no
member
can
gain
an
advantage
by
unilaterally
adopting
different
We
leverage
analytic
solution
that
yields
fully
time-dependent
rational
obtain,
1)
simple
relationship
between
distancing
and
current
number
infections;
2)
scaling
results
for
how
peak
total
cases
depend
on
cost
contracting
disease;
3)
characteristic
costs
divide
regimes
strong
weak
behavioral
response;
4)
closed
form
expression
value
utility.
discuss
these
provide
deep
intuitive
understanding
disease
dynamics,
useful
both
individuals
policymakers.
In
particular,
infections
represents
heuristic
could
be
communicated
encourage,
or
“bootstrap,”
Science Advances,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
8(8)
Published: Feb. 25, 2022
During
pandemics,
effective
nonpharmaceutical
interventions
encourage
people
to
adjust
their
behavior
in
fast-changing
environments
which
exponential
dynamics
aggravate
the
conflict
between
individual
benefits
of
risk-taking
and
its
social
costs.
Policy-makers
need
know
are
most
likely
promote
socially
advantageous
behaviors.
We
designed
a
tool
for
initial
evaluations
effectiveness
large-scale
interventions,
transmission
game
framework,
integrates
simulations
outbreak
into
large-group
experiments
with
monetary
stakes.
In
two
studies
(n
=
700),
we
found
substantial
differences
five
behavioral
interventions.
A
simple
injunctive-norms
message
proved
effective,
followed
by
boosting
participants'
ability
anticipate
consequences
risky
behavior.
Interventions
featuring
descriptive
norms
or
concurrent
risk
information
failed
reduce
risk-taking.
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Journal Year:
2020,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Dec. 22, 2020
Abstract
Most
countries
have
started
vaccinating
people
against
COVID-19.
However,
due
to
limited
production
capacities
and
logistical
challenges
it
will
take
months/years
until
herd
immunity
is
achieved.
Therefore,
vaccination
social
distancing
be
coordinated.
In
this
paper,
we
provide
some
insight
on
topic
using
optimization-based
control
an
age-differentiated
compartmental
model.
For
real-life
decision
making,
investigate
the
impact
of
planning
horizon
optimal
vaccination/social
strategy.
We
find
that
in
order
reduce
long
run,
without
overburdening
healthcare
system,
essential
vaccinate
with
highest
contact
rates
first.
That
also
case
if
objective
minimize
fatalities
provided
measures
are
sufficiently
strict.
for
short-term
focus
high-risk
group.
Scientific Reports,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
12(1)
Published: May 16, 2022
In
order
to
slow
the
spread
of
CoViD-19
pandemic,
governments
around
world
have
enacted
a
wide
set
policies
limiting
transmission
disease.
Initially,
these
focused
on
non-pharmaceutical
interventions;
more
recently,
vaccinations
and
large-scale
rapid
testing
started
play
major
role.
The
objective
this
study
is
explain
quantitative
effects
determining
course
allowing
for
factors
like
seasonality
or
virus
strains
with
different
profiles.
To
do
so,
develops
an
agent-based
simulation
model,
which
explicitly
takes
into
account
test
demand
behavioral
changes
following
positive
tests.
model
estimated
using
data
second
third
wave
pandemic
in
Germany.
paper
finds
that
during
period
where
vaccination
rates
rose
from
5
40%,
had
largest
effect
reducing
infection
numbers.
Frequent
should
remain
part
strategies
contain
CoViD-19;
it
can
substitute
many
interventions
come
at
much
larger
cost
individuals,
society,
economy.
