Lessons drawn from Shanghai for controlling highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants: insights from a modelling study

BMC Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(1)

Published: May 16, 2023

Abstract Background The continuous emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants with markedly increased transmissibility presents major challenges to the zero-COVID policy in China. It is critical adjust aspects about non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by searching for and implementing more effective ways. We use a mathematical model mimic epidemic pattern Omicron variant Shanghai quantitatively show control investigate feasibility different patterns avoiding other waves. Methods initially construct dynamic core step-by-step release strategy reveal its role controlling spread COVID-19, including city-based district-based pattern. used least squares method real reported case data fit 16 districts, respectively. Optimal theory was utilized explore quantitative optimal solutions time-varying strength (i.e., contact rate) suppress highly transmissible variants. Results necessary period reaching goal can be nearly 4 months, final size 629,625 (95%CI: [608,049, 651,201]). By adopting pattern, 7 out strategies released NPIs or earlier than baseline ensured zero-resurgence risk at average cost 10 129 cases June. regional linked allow resumption social activity ~ 100% boundary-region group 14 days people flow between districts without causing infection resurgence. rate were obtained various testing intensities, higher diagnosis correlated while number daily remained almost unchanged. Conclusions could have been bolder flexible unleashing they did. should relaxed attention paid centre-region group. With intensive strategy, return normal life as much possible but still ensure maintained relatively low level.

Language: Английский

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Rethinking COVID-19 vaccine allocation: it is time to care about our neighbours

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12, P. 100277 - 100277

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic changed nearly every aspect of our lives. rapid spread the disease exposed several layers inequality that it has exploited to propagate preferentially. We find these in different contexts and levels, such as impossibility self-isolate do remote work (at individual level) or economic constraints deploy a fast vaccination program country level). In context programmes, resources must be optimised alleviate burden where is needed most. Lancet Regional Health Europe, Yang Liu coauthors analyse health impact age-stratified vaccine prioritisation programs 38 countries World Organization (WHO) European Region provide modelling framework optimise country-specific allocation.1Liu Y Sandmann FG Barnard RC Pearson CA Pastore R Pebody Flasche S Jit M LSHTM CMMID Working Group. Optimising impacts strategies WHO Region: mathematical study.Lancet – Europe. 2021; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267Summary Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (21) Google Scholar From early 2021 on, vaccines have helped pandemic's on society by mitigating contagion, protecting population against severe disease, allowing for less restrictive measures, especially with high uptake availability.2Contreras Dehning J Mohr SB Bauer Spitzner FP Priesemann V Low case numbers enable long-term stable control without lockdowns.Science Advances. Oct 8; 7 (eabg2243)Crossref (20) Scholar,3Bauer Contreras Linden Iftekhar E Olivera-Nappa A V. Relaxing restrictions at pace increases freedom guards further waves.PLoS Computational Biology. Sep 2; 17e1009288Crossref (33) Scholar,4Viana van Dorp CH Nunes Gomes MC Boven Kretzschmar ME Veldhoen Rozhnova G. Controlling during SARS-CoV-2 rollout.Nature Communications. Jun 16; 12: 1-5Crossref (82) Due strong dependency between age severity, was logical first approach allocating resources. However, there are dimensions consider when optimising allocation given country. Among them, those considered colleagues: mortality, morbidity, comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy loss, comorbidity-and-quality-adjusted life-years human capital loss. Implicitly, talking about forces us assign lives (and quality) fixed value favourite currency. Thus, governments faced highly nontrivial problem, best solution their societies not straightforward homogeneous across countries. Liu's allowed policy- decision-makers timely evaluate alternatives protect interests nations, considering all indexes mentioned above simultaneously. Noteworthily, been available online already since July 2020. During rollout, some non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were required mitigate COVID-19, negative productive sectors tourism. Notably, mostly driven young working-class who, despite being unprotected beginning largely expected keep economies going. colleagues showed deployed effectively (i.e., vaccinating 80% eligible within one year), prioritising younger adults can equally beneficial elder risk groups also protected reducing contagion groups. Therefore, wealthier excess reactivate faster if following this alternative. Conversely, low availability cannot vaccinate drivers thus face double problem. First, they de facto risk, second, fully restart activities would require NPIs immunity levels population. differences will make antipodes drift apart. Since mid-2021, does pose problem high-income Instead, challenge vaccine-hesitant vaccine-denial individuals completion programmes. Often, lack willing receive moment caused expiration discard doses.5Feinmann J. How world (not) handling surplus doses expiring vaccines.BMJ. Aug 25; 374Google crucial understand hesitancy6Contreras S, Dönges P, Wagner J, SB, EN, M, Maes Nagel K, Valdez AC. winter dilemma. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.01554. 4.Google Scholar,7Wirtz K. Changing readiness steered epidemic social trajectories.Scientific Reports. Jul 6; 11 (-1): 1Crossref (3) implement initiatives re-selling donating needed. highlights need coordinated responsible distribution vaccines: increased supplies come expense others.1Liu study provides explicit guidance optimal raises awareness regions sharing them before risking expiring. identifies strategy resource we stop acting thinking could managed locally.8Priesemann Balling Beutels P AC Cuschieri Czypionka T Dumpis U Glaab Grill Hotulainen P. Towards address pandemic.The Lancet. 4; 398: 838-839Summary (35) International inequity matter general concern.9Reddy KS. Boosters appear effective, but always needed?.The 29; Summary Moreover, even interested principle only wellbeing helping other favoured might advantages combating e.g. preventing importing infections opening borders, minimising loss At times, generous way one's own interests.10Burioni Topol EJ. Has reached peak fitness?.Nature Medicine. 27: 1323-1324Crossref (13) All authors declare no competing interests. contributed conceptualization, writing, editing comment. studyThe age-based sensitive characteristics, decision-making metrics, roll-out speeds. involving more stages (V75) necessarily lead better outcomes than targeting broad (V60). Countries expecting slow may particularly benefit from older adults. Full-Text Open Access

Language: Английский

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What vaccination rate(s) minimize total societal costs after ’opening up’ to COVID-19? Age-structured SIRM results for the Delta variant in Australia (New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia)

PLOS Global Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2(6), P. e0000499 - e0000499

Published: June 14, 2022

Using three age-structured, stochastic SIRM models, calibrated to Australian data post July 2021 with community transmission of the Delta variant, we projected possible public health outcomes (daily cases, hospitalisations, ICU beds, ventilators and fatalities) economy costs for states: New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC) Western Australia (WA). NSW VIC have had on-going from were in 'lockdown' suppress transmission. WA did not nor was it lockdown at model start date (October 11th 2021) but maintain strict state border controls. We economic 'opening up' (relaxation lockdowns or fully opening WA) alternative vaccination rates (70%, 80% 90%), compared peak patient demand beds staffed state-level bed capacity, calculated a 'preferred' rate that minimizes societal varies by state. found preferred all states is least population increasing with: (1) effectiveness (infection, hospitalization fatality) vaccine; (2) lower daily cost; (3) larger are COVID-19; (4) higher before up; (5) less effective measures after up.

Language: Английский

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Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease

The Economic Journal, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 133(654), P. 2483 - 2503

Published: March 22, 2023

Abstract This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead building up immunity through infections. Second, crucial trade-off not between health and economic costs, but intensity duration control measures. A simple formula observables characterises optimum. Third, total cost depends critically on efficiency contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. calibration COVID-19 pandemic illustrates theoretical findings.

Language: Английский

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Der Beitrag von epidemiologischen Modellen zur Beschreibung des Ausbruchsgeschehens der COVID-19-Pandemie

Bundesgesundheitsblatt - Gesundheitsforschung - Gesundheitsschutz, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 64(9), P. 1058 - 1066

Published: July 30, 2021

After the global outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, an infection dynamic immense extent developed. Since then, numerous measures have been taken to bring under control. This was very successful in spring 2020, while number infections rose sharply following autumn. To predict occurrence infections, epidemiological models are used. These principle a valuable tool pandemic management. However, they still partly need be based on assumptions regarding transmission routes and possible drivers dynamics. Despite individual approaches, systematic data lacking with which, for example, effectiveness could quantified. Such information generated studies is needed enable reliable predictions further course pandemic. Thereby, complexity develop hand available data. In this article, after delineating two basic classes models, contribution assessment various central aspects such as reproduction rate, unreported cases, fatality consideration regionality, shown. Subsequently, use quantify impact effects "test-trace-isolate" strategy described. concluding discussion, limitations modelling approaches juxtaposed their advantages.

Language: Английский

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