Real-time Dissection and Forecast of Infection Dynamics during a Pandemic DOI Creative Commons
Steven Schulz, Richard W. Pastor,

Cenk Koyuncuoglu

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 6, 2023

Abstract Pandemic preparedness requires institutions, including public health authorities and governments, to detect, survey control outbreaks. To maintain an accurate, quantitative up-to-date picture of epidemic crisis is key. For SARS-CoV-2, this was mostly achieved by ascertaining incidence numbers the effective reproductive number ( R eff ), which counts how many people infected person likely infect on average. These give strong hints past infection dynamics in a population but fail clearly characterize current future as well potential effects pharmaceutical non-pharmaceutical interventions. We show that, using combining surveillance population-scale contact statistics, we can obtain better understanding drivers waves effectiveness This approach provide real-time picture, thus saving not only lives quickly allowing adaptation policies also alleviating economic other burdens if intervention proves ineffective. factorize into contacts relative transmissibility: Both signals be used, individually combined, identify driving forces epidemic, monitoring assessing interventions, projecting epidemic’s trajectory. Using data for SARS-CoV-2 Influenza from 2019 onward Germany, evidence usefulness our approach. In particular, find that physical distancing lockdowns vaccination campaigns are dominant.

Language: Английский

Future directions in human mobility science DOI
Luca Pappalardo, Ed Manley, Vedran Sekara

et al.

Nature Computational Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 3(7), P. 588 - 600

Published: July 3, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

48
Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years DOI Creative Commons
Amanda C. Perofsky, C. Hansen, Roy Burstein

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: May 16, 2024

Abstract Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population on transmission 17 viruses in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits schools daycares, within-city mixing, visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after initiation COVID-19 stay-at-home orders March 2020. During this was positive, leading indicator all lagging negatively correlated activity. Mobility briefly predictive when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened subsequent waves. The rebound heterogeneously timed exhibited stronger, longer-lasting than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, is most virus during periods dramatic behavioral change at beginning epidemic

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Evidence of pandemic fatigue associated with stricter tiered COVID-19 restrictions DOI Creative Commons

Federico Delussu,

Michele Tizzoni, Laëtitia Gauvin

et al.

PLOS Digital Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(5), P. e0000035 - e0000035

Published: May 26, 2022

Despite the availability of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain an important part effort to reduce viral circulation caused by emerging variants with capability evading vaccine-induced immunity. With aim striking a balance between mitigation and long-term sustainability, several governments worldwide have adopted systems tiered interventions, increasing stringency, that are calibrated according periodic risk assessments. A key challenge remains in quantifying temporal changes adherence which can decrease over time due pandemic fatigue, under such kind multilevel strategies. Here, we examine whether there was reduction restrictions were imposed Italy from November 2020 through May 2021, particular assess trends depended on intensity adopted. We analyzed daily movements residential time, combining mobility data restriction tier enforced Italian regions. Through mixed-effects regression models, identified general trend additional effect faster waning associated most stringent tier. estimated both effects being same order magnitude, suggesting decreased twice as fast during strictest least one. Our results provide quantitative measure behavioral responses interventions-a metric fatigue-that be integrated into mathematical models evaluate future epidemic scenarios.

Language: Английский

Citations

44
The exciting potential and daunting challenge of using GPS human-mobility data for epidemic modeling DOI
Francisco Barreras, Duncan J. Watts

Nature Computational Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 4(6), P. 398 - 411

Published: June 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7
EMDM: Efficient Motion Diffusion Model for Fast and High-Quality Motion Generation DOI

Wenhua Zhou,

Zhiyang Dou, Zeyu Cao

et al.

Lecture notes in computer science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 18 - 38

Published: Oct. 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut DOI Creative Commons
Olga Morozova, Zehang Li, Forrest W. Crawford

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 12, 2021

To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a flexible county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections infections, hospitalizations, deaths, estimates important features clinical In this paper, outline the design, implementation calibration, describe how used meet changing requirements officials Connecticut from March 2020 February 2021. The approach takes advantage our unique access surveillance hospital data direct connection state policymakers. We calibrated on deaths hospitalizations novel measure close interpersonal contact frequency capture changes risk over time multiple local sources infer dynamics time-varying inputs. Estimated epidemiologic epidemic include effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence infection, infection hospitalization fatality ratios, case detection ratio. conclude with discussion limitations inherent predicting uncertain trajectories lessons learned one year providing Connecticut.

Language: Английский

Citations

28
Health disparity in the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from social distancing, risk of interactions, and access to testing DOI Creative Commons
Ran Wei, Yujia Zhang, Song Gao

et al.

Health & Place, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 82, P. 103031 - 103031

Published: April 25, 2023

- To identify and assess whether three major risk factors that due to differential access flexible resources might help explain disparities in the spread of COVID-19 across communities with different socioeconomic status, including inequalities social distancing, potential interpersonal interactions, testing.

Language: Английский

Citations

12
Heterogeneous changes in mobility in response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai DOI Creative Commons
Juanjuan Zhang, Suoyi Tan, Peng Cheng

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(42)

Published: Oct. 12, 2023

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures taken by authorities to control its spread have altered human behavior mobility patterns in an unprecedented way. However, it remains unclear whether population response a COVID-19 outbreak varies within city or among demographic groups. Here, we utilized passively recorded cellular signaling data at spatial resolution of 1 km × for over 5 million users epidemiological surveillance collected during severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.2 from February June 2022 Shanghai, China, investigate heterogeneous different segments within-city level examine relationship with actual risk infection. Changes were spatially heterogenous groups associated both infection incidence adopted interventions. We also found that males individuals aged 30 59 y old traveled more frequently, longer distances, their communities connected; same highest SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Our results highlight behavioral change Shanghai effect on COVID-19, demographically. These findings could be instrumental design targeted interventions mitigation future outbreaks and, broadly, pathogens.

Language: Английский

Citations

12
COVID-19 Testing and Case Rates and Social Contact Among Residential College Students in Connecticut During the 2020-2021 Academic Year DOI Creative Commons
Olivia L. Schultes, Victoria Clarke, A. David Paltiel

et al.

JAMA Network Open, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4(12), P. e2140602 - e2140602

Published: Dec. 23, 2021

During the 2020-2021 academic year, many institutions of higher education reopened to residential students while pursuing strategies mitigate risk SARS-CoV-2 transmission on campus. Reopening guidance emphasized polymerase chain reaction or antigen testing for and social distancing measures reduce frequency close interpersonal contact, Connecticut colleges universities used a variety approaches reopen campuses students.To characterize institutional reopening COVID-19 outcomes in 18 college university across Connecticut.This retrospective cohort study data cases contact from that had during year.Tests performed per week student.Cases student mean (95% CI) student.Between 235 4603 attended fall semester each Connecticut, with fewer at most spring semester. In census block groups containing residence halls, move-in resulted 475% CI, 373%-606%) increase 561% 441%-713%) compared 7 weeks prior move-in. The association between test case rate was complex; tested infrequently detected few but failed blunt transmission, whereas more frequently prevented further spread. 2020, additional associated decrease 0.0014 -0.0028 -0.00001).The findings this suggest that, era available vaccinations highly transmissible variants, should continue use mitigation control on-campus cases.

Language: Английский

Citations

26
Nanotechnology and COVID-19: Prevention, diagnosis, vaccine, and treatment strategies DOI Creative Commons
Sümeyra Ayan,

Kubra Aranci-Ciftci,

Fatih Çiftçi

et al.

Frontiers in Materials, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Jan. 11, 2023

In December 2019, Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viruses, which affected the whole world, is emerged. The details on epidemiology, infection source, transmission mode, and prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 gave in this review. Universal control standards such as hand hygiene, environmental cleanliness, use personal protective equipment, quarantine used to prevent spread COVID-19 without vaccine. However, many vaccine candidate studies carried out globally with using traditional technological approaches. Innovations technology allow development nanotechnological tools formation systems that will inactivate patients. It expected include technologies combine different disciplines, especially robotic applications, antimicrobial nanotechnology, tissue engineering for future treatment COVID-19. This review-based work discusses relationship nanotechnology based working principles.

Language: Английский

Citations

10