Accounting for unobserved population dynamics and aging error in close-kin mark-recapture assessments

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 21, 2023

Abstract Obtaining robust estimates of population abundance is a central challenge hindering the conservation and management many threatened exploited species. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) genetics-based approach that has strong potential to improve monitoring data-limited species by enabling abundance, survival, other parameters for populations are challenging assess. However, CKMR models have received limited sensitivity testing under realistic dynamics sampling scenarios, impeding application method in programs stock assessments. Here, we use individual-based simulation examine how unmodeled aging uncertainty affect accuracy precision parameter different strategies. We then present adapted correct biases arise from model misspecification. Our results demonstrate simple base-case produces with stable breed annually; however, if trend or non-annual breeding present, year-specific desired, more complex must be constructed. In addition, show can generate reliable adults variety strategies, including juvenile-focused where never directly observed (and error minimal). Finally, apply been growth intermittent two decades genetic data juvenile lemon sharks ( Negaprion brevirostris ) Bimini, Bahamas, samples drawn solely juveniles contribute efforts highly mobile populations. Overall, this study expands our understanding biological factors decisions cause bias models, identifies key areas future inquiry, provides recommendations aid biologists planning implementing an effective study, particularly long-lived

Language: Английский

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Peer Review #3 of "A simulation-based evaluation of methods for estimating census population size of terrestrial game species from genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs (v0.1)"

Published: April 12, 2023

Estimates of wildlife population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates difficult to obtain many species.Several methods have recently been developed that estimate abundance using kinship relationships observed in genetic samples , particularly parent-offspring pairs .While these similar traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture, they do not need physical recapture, as individuals considered recaptured if a sample contains one or more close relatives.This makes based on genetically-identified interesting species which releasing marked animals back into the is desirable possible (e.g., harvested fish game species).However, while successfully applied commercially important species, absence lifehistory data, making several assumptions unlikely be met terrestrial species.They assume only generation parents juveniles year, than two generations can coexist hunting bags long-lived sampling probability same each individual, an assumption violated when fecundity and/or survival depend sex other individual traits.In order assess usefulness kin-based sizes we simulated pedigrees different with contrasting demographic strategies (wild boar red deer), four compared accuracy precision their estimates.We also performed sensitivity analysis, simulating varying characteristics various levels harvesting identify optimal conditions applicability method.We showed all reached required effective management under circumstances (i.e., within given range intensity), being robust variation.Despite potential care needed

Language: Английский

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Peer Review #3 of "A simulation-based evaluation of methods for estimating census population size of terrestrial game species from genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs (v0.2)"

Published: April 12, 2023

Estimates of wildlife population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates difficult to obtain many species.Several methods have recently been developed that estimate abundance using kinship relationships observed in genetic samples , particularly parent-offspring pairs .While these similar traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture, they do not need physical recapture, as individuals considered recaptured if a sample contains one or more close relatives.This makes based on genetically-identified interesting species which releasing marked animals back into the is desirable possible (e.g., harvested fish game species).However, while successfully applied commercially important species, absence lifehistory data, making several assumptions unlikely be met terrestrial species.They assume only generation parents juveniles year, than two generations can coexist hunting bags long-lived sampling probability same each individual, an assumption violated when fecundity and/or survival depend sex other individual traits.In order assess usefulness kin-based sizes we simulated pedigrees different with contrasting demographic strategies (wild boar red deer), four compared accuracy precision their estimates.We also performed sensitivity analysis, simulating varying characteristics various levels harvesting identify optimal conditions applicability method.We showed all reached required effective management under circumstances (i.e., within given range intensity), being robust variation.Despite potential care needed

Language: Английский

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Peer Review #2 of "A simulation-based evaluation of methods for estimating census population size of terrestrial game species from genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs (v0.2)"

Published: April 12, 2023

Estimates of wildlife population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates difficult to obtain many species.Several methods have recently been developed that estimate abundance using kinship relationships observed in genetic samples , particularly parent-offspring pairs .While these similar traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture, they do not need physical recapture, as individuals considered recaptured if a sample contains one or more close relatives.This makes based on genetically-identified interesting species which releasing marked animals back into the is desirable possible (e.g., harvested fish game species).However, while successfully applied commercially important species, absence lifehistory data, making several assumptions unlikely be met terrestrial species.They assume only generation parents juveniles year, than two generations can coexist hunting bags long-lived sampling probability same each individual, an assumption violated when fecundity and/or survival depend sex other individual traits.In order assess usefulness kin-based sizes we simulated pedigrees different with contrasting demographic strategies (wild boar red deer), four compared accuracy precision their estimates.We also performed sensitivity analysis, simulating varying characteristics various levels harvesting identify optimal conditions applicability method.We showed all reached required effective management under circumstances (i.e., within given range intensity), being robust variation.Despite potential care needed

Language: Английский

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Peer Review #2 of "A simulation-based evaluation of methods for estimating census population size of terrestrial game species from genetically-identified parent-offspring pairs (v0.1)"

Published: April 12, 2023

Estimates of wildlife population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates difficult to obtain many species.Several methods have recently been developed that estimate abundance using kinship relationships observed in genetic samples , particularly parent-offspring pairs .While these similar traditional Capture-Mark-Recapture, they do not need physical recapture, as individuals considered recaptured if a sample contains one or more close relatives.This makes based on genetically-identified interesting species which releasing marked animals back into the is desirable possible (e.g., harvested fish game species).However, while successfully applied commercially important species, absence lifehistory data, making several assumptions unlikely be met terrestrial species.They assume only generation parents juveniles year, than two generations can coexist hunting bags long-lived sampling probability same each individual, an assumption violated when fecundity and/or survival depend sex other individual traits.In order assess usefulness kin-based sizes we simulated pedigrees different with contrasting demographic strategies (wild boar red deer), four compared accuracy precision their estimates.We also performed sensitivity analysis, simulating varying characteristics various levels harvesting identify optimal conditions applicability method.We showed all reached required effective management under circumstances (i.e., within given range intensity), being robust variation.Despite potential care needed

Language: Английский

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