Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Science, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 355(6332)

Published: March 30, 2017

Consequences of shifting species distributions Climate change is causing geographical redistribution plant and animal globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current future impacts assess their implications for sustainable development goals. Science , this issue p. eaai9214

Language: Английский

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On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 1 - 55

Published: Aug. 1, 2015

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality associated broad‐scale forest die‐off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic the Anthropocene—are focus rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability trees hotter pests pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management policy‐making communities regarding future risks. We summarize key mortality‐relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels vulnerability. Evidence includes benefits elevated [CO 2 ] water‐use efficiency; observed modeled increases in growth canopy greening; widespread woody‐plant biomass, density, extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; potential mitigation management. In contrast, document more rapid under negative physiological responses accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence rising background rates; projected frequency, intensity, duration; limitations vegetation models such as inadequately represented processes; warming feedbacks from die‐off; wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape but have not been discussed collectively. also present a set global drivers are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) produces droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand nonlinearly temperature during drought; (4) can faster drought, consistent fundamental physiology; (5) shorter frequently than longer become lethal warming, increasing frequency nonlinearly; (6) happens relative intervals needed for recovery. These high‐confidence drivers, concert research supporting perspectives, support overall viewpoint globally. surmise is being discounted part difficulties predicting threshold extreme climate events. Given profound societal implications underestimating highlight urgent challenges management, communities.

Language: Английский

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Global risk of deadly heat

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(7), P. 501 - 506

Published: June 19, 2017

Language: Английский

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Landslides in a changing climate

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 162, P. 227 - 252

Published: Aug. 23, 2016

Warming of the Earth climate system is unequivocal. That changes affect stability natural and engineered slopes have consequences on landslides, also undisputable. Less clear type, extent, magnitude direction in conditions, location, abundance, activity frequency landslides response to projected changes. Climate act at only partially overlapping spatial temporal scales, complicating evaluation impacts landslides. We review literature landslide-climate studies, find a bias their geographical distribution, with large parts world not investigated. recommend fill gap new studies Asia, South America, Africa. examine advantages limits approaches adopted evaluate effects variations including prospective modelling retrospective methods that use landslide records. consider temperature, precipitation, wind weather systems, direct indirect single slopes, we probabilistic hazard model appraise regional Our indicates results depend more emission scenarios, Global Circulation Models, downscale variables, than description variables controlling slope processes. advocate for constructing ensembles projections based range emissions carefully from worst-case scenarios may over/under-estimate hazards risk. further uncertainties must be quantified communicated decision makers public. perform preliminary global assessment future impact, present map impact change abundance. Where warming expected increase intensity severe rainfall events, primary trigger rapid-moving cause many fatalities, predict an number people exposed Finally, give recommendations adaptation risk reduction strategies framework climate.

Language: Английский

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A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 122(3), P. 373 - 386

Published: Oct. 2, 2013

Abstract This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios climate change research. The facilitates addressing key questions related to current research and policy-making: identifying effectiveness of different adaptation mitigation strategies (in terms their costs, risks other consequences) possible trade-offs synergies. two main axes are: 1) level radiative forcing system (as characterised by representative concentration pathways) 2) set alternative plausible trajectories future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). can be used guide at scales. It also heuristic tool classifying existing assessment. Key elements architecture, in particular pathways policy assumptions (devices incorporating explicit policies), are elaborated papers this special issue.

Language: Английский

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Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 282(1808), P. 20150401 - 20150401

Published: May 20, 2015

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though potential plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this largely unknown. In part, shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns variation plasticity. To address critical issue, we test leading hypotheses broad-scale ectotherm using dataset that includes vertebrate invertebrate taxa terrestrial, freshwater marine habitats. Contrary expectation, heat was unrelated latitude or seasonality. However, cold associated with seasonality some habitat types. addition, aquatic have approximately twice terrestrial taxa. Based on observed plasticity, propose limited behavioural (i.e. thermoregulation) favours evolution greater physiological traits, consistent 'Bogert effect'. Finally, find all ectotherms relatively low acclimation demonstrate will be minimally reduced by even most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates evolutionary mechanisms allowing buffer themselves extreme temperatures.

Language: Английский

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Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 90(1), P. 214 - 235

Published: April 10, 2014

ABSTRACT Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance the growing season, also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes temperatures, variability conditions, snow cover can interact induce cold injury, alter energy water balance, advance or retard phenology, modify interactions. Species vary their susceptibility these drivers, hampering efforts predict biological responses change. Existing frameworks for predicting impacts do not incorporate complexity organismal winter. Here, we synthesise change, use this synthesis build framework exposure sensitivity negative impacts. This be used estimate vulnerability species We describe importance relationships between during season determining fitness, demonstrate how summer processes are linked. Incorporating into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians empiricists, expansion growing‐season studies

Language: Английский

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Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(12), P. 1062 - 1071

Published: Nov. 13, 2018

Language: Английский

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Interval squeeze: altered fire regimes and demographic responses interact to threaten woody species persistence as climate changes

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 13(5), P. 265 - 272

Published: June 1, 2015

Projected effects of climate change across many ecosystems globally include more frequent disturbance by fire and reduced plant growth due to warmer (and especially drier) conditions. Such changes affect species – particularly fire-intolerant woody plants simultaneously reducing recruitment, growth, survival. Collectively, these mechanisms may narrow the interval window compatible with population persistence, driving extirpation or extinction. We present a conceptual model combined effects, based on synthesis known impacts altered regimes demography, describe syndrome we term “interval squeeze”. This predicts that squeeze will increase extinction risk ecosystem structure, composition, carbon storage, in regions projected become both drier. These predicted demand new approaches management maximize situ adaptive capacity respond regime change.

Language: Английский

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Evolutionary tipping points in the capacity to adapt to environmental change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 112(1), P. 184 - 189

Published: Nov. 24, 2014

Significance Environmental variation is becoming more frequent and unpredictable as a consequence of climate change, yet we currently lack the tools to evaluate extent which organisms may adapt this phenomenon. Here develop model that explores these issues use it study how changes in timescale predictability environmental ultimately affect population viability. Our indicates that, although populations can often cope with fairly large parameters, on occasion they will collapse abruptly go extinct. We characterize conditions under evolutionary tipping points occur discuss vulnerability such cryptic threats depend genetic architecture life history involved.

Language: Английский

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