Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss DOI Creative Commons
Alexander R. Gottlieb, Justin Mankin

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 625(7994), P. 293 - 300

Published: Jan. 10, 2024

Abstract Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark pace climate change manage differential water security risks snowpack declines 1–4 . So far, however, observational uncertainties in mass 5,6 have made detection attribution human-forced losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused Northern Hemisphere-scale March over 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble reconstructions, identify robust trends 82 out 169 major Hemisphere river basins, 31 which can confidently attribute human influence. Most crucially, a generalizable highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity snowpack, becomes marginally more sensitive one degree Celsius as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains lack widespread so far augurs much sharper most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize their consequences are attributable—even absent clear individual products—and will accelerate homogenize with near-term warming, posing resources absence substantial mitigation.

Language: Английский

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States DOI Creative Commons
Forrest Melton, Justin L. Huntington,

R. Grimm

et al.

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 58(6), P. 971 - 994

Published: Nov. 2, 2021

Abstract The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use water by irrigated agriculture is one the most important data gaps for managers in western United States (U.S.) other arid agricultural regions globally. ability to easily access ET central improving budgets across West, advancing data‐driven irrigation management strategies, expanding incentive‐driven conservation programs. Recent advances remote sensing have led development multiple approaches field‐scale mapping that been used local regional resource applications U.S. state federal agencies. OpenET project a community‐driven effort building upon these develop an operational system generating distributing at field scale using ensemble six well‐established satellite‐based ET. Key objectives include: Increasing remotely sensed through web‐based explorer services; supporting range applications; cases training resources producers managers. Here we describe framework, including models ensemble, satellite, meteorological, ancillary inputs system, visualization tools. We also summarize extensive intercomparison accuracy assessment conducted ground measurements from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated 24 cropland Phase I demonstrate strong agreement between satellite‐driven data. For evaluated date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT‐JPL, SIMS, SSEBop) mean, weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values all 13.6 21.6 mm/month monthly timestep, 0.74 1.07 mm/day daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, but total within ±8% both Overall, performs as well any individual model nearly statistics croplands, though some may perform better specific regions. conclude three brief illustrate current benefits increased data, discuss key lessons learned OpenET.

Language: Английский

Citations

176

Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States DOI
Fangyue Zhang, Joel A. Biederman, Matthew P. Dannenberg

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 48(7)

Published: April 6, 2021

Abstract Multiple lines of evidence suggest climate change will result in increased precipitation variability and consequently more frequent extreme events. These hydroclimatic changes likely have significant socioecological impacts, especially across water‐limited regions. Here we present an analysis daily meteorological observations from 1976 to 2019 at 337 long‐term weather stations distributed the western United States (US). In addition widespread warming (0.2 °C ± 0.01°C/decade, maximum temperature), observed trends reduced annual (−2.3 1.5 mm/decade) most region, with increasing interannual precipitation. Critically, showed that extreme‐duration drought became common, increases both mean longest dry interval between events (0.6 0.2, 2.4 0.3 days/decade) greater these intervals. findings indicate that, against a backdrop drying, large regions US are experiencing intensification variability, detrimental consequences for essential ecosystem services.

Language: Английский

Citations

157

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change DOI Creative Commons
Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu, Yao Zhang

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(10)

Published: March 10, 2023

Increases in concurrent climate extremes different parts of the world threaten ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns these their past future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for dependence show widespread temperature precipitation observations model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence around world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened over 56% 946 global paired regions, particularly tropics, but not yet significantly affected during 1901–2020. The high-emissions pathway SSP585 will substantially amplify strength, intensity, extent both extremes, especially tropical boreal while mitigation SSP126 can ameliorate increase high-risk regions. Our findings inform adaptation strategies alleviate impact extremes.

Language: Английский

Citations

149

Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history DOI Creative Commons

Ulf Büntgen,

Dominique Arseneault, Étienne Boucher

et al.

Dendrochronologia, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 64, P. 125757 - 125757

Published: Sept. 24, 2020

Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where based on combinations different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length predictive skill), it is challenging estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle relative roles natural anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between variability human history. Here, we compile analyse updated versions all existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from Northern Hemisphere that span entire Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach reconstruct extra-tropical temperatures 1 2010 CE, calculate uncertainties at continental hemispheric scales. Peak warming in 280s, 990s 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, comparable modern conditions until CE. The lowest June–August anomaly 536 not only marks beginning coldest decade, but also defines onset Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman times roughly coincides with tendency towards societal prosperity across much North Atlantic/European sector East Asia, major episodes volcanically-forced cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks political upheavals. Our study reveals larger spatially synchronized variation first millennium than previously recognised.

Language: Английский

Citations

147

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene DOI

Benjamin I. Cook,

Jason E. Smerdon, Edward R. Cook

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(11), P. 741 - 757

Published: Oct. 4, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

121

Dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) as a vital component of sustainable agriculture and food security—A review DOI Creative Commons

Mark A. Uebersax,

Karen A. Cichy, Francisco E. Gomez

et al.

Legume Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: June 9, 2022

Abstract The importance of legumes in sustainable cropping systems has been studied extensively. Among legumes, common beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are a rich world resource biodiversity with two centers domestication (Andes and Central America) over 10 major market classes cultivated globally. Common recognized as nutrient‐dense, healthy food source due to their high protein, dietary fiber, minerals content also being resistant slowly digestible starch, which elicits lower glycemic response. Some bioactive compounds present reported mitigate cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hyper‐cholesterolemia, cancer. Dry bean production provide unique advantages that support sustainability, including low carbon footprint short growth cycle, facilitates crop diversification cover integration. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF), characteristic promotes environmentally friendly through modest fertilizer use. Advances improve the upright plant architecture during last decades have enhanced options for direct harvest thereby reducing number equipment passes required. Overall, sustainability implications diversifying rotation using result reduced requirements unfriendly inputs buffering productivity under variable weather conditions. This review article covers beans' role agricultural (biodiversity, SNF, rotational diversity, management) nutrition security. Further discussion includes measures enhance dry breeding management practices by addressing biotic abiotic stresses (diseases, drought, temperature, waterlogging, conservation tillage).

Language: Английский

Citations

105

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes DOI Creative Commons
Samantha Stevenson, Sloan Coats, Danielle Touma

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(12)

Published: March 14, 2022

SignificanceTwenty-first century trends in hydroclimate are so large that future average conditions will, most cases, fall into the range of what we would today consider extreme drought or pluvial states. Using climate model ensembles, remove background trend and find risk droughts pluvials relative to (changing) baseline is fairly similar 20th risk. By continually adapting long-term changes, these risks could therefore perhaps be minimized. However, increases frequency extremely wet dry years still present even after removing trend, indicating sustainably managing hydroclimate-driven a warmer world will face increasingly difficult challenges.

Language: Английский

Citations

101

Exceptional heat and atmospheric dryness amplified losses of primary production during the 2020 U.S. Southwest hot drought DOI Creative Commons
Matthew P. Dannenberg, Dong Yan, Mallory L. Barnes

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(16), P. 4794 - 4806

Published: April 22, 2022

Earth's ecosystems are increasingly threatened by "hot drought," which occurs when hot air temperatures coincide with precipitation deficits, intensifying the hydrological, physiological, and ecological effects of drought enhancing evaporative losses soil moisture (SM) increasing plant stress due to higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Drought-induced reductions in gross primary production (GPP) exert a major influence on terrestrial carbon sink, but extent hotter atmospherically drier conditions will amplify deficits cycle remains largely unknown. During summer autumn 2020, U.S. Southwest experienced one most intense droughts record, record-low record-high temperature VPD across region. Here, we use this natural experiment evaluate GPP further decompose those negative anomalies into their constituent meteorological hydrological drivers. We found 122 Tg C (>25%) reduction below 2015-2019 mean, far lowest regional over Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite record. Roughly half estimated loss was attributable low SM (likely combination warming-enhanced depletion), record-breaking amplified GPP, contributing roughly 40% anomaly. Both very likely continue next century, leading more frequent substantially drought-induced reductions.

Language: Английский

Citations

96

Drought resistance enhanced by tree species diversity in global forests DOI
Dan Liu, Tao Wang, Josep Peñuelas

et al.

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 15(10), P. 800 - 804

Published: Sept. 19, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

94

Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest‐Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States DOI
Caroline S. Juang, Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(5)

Published: March 1, 2022

Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity recent decades. This non-linear response important implications for AFAB changing climate, yet cause AFAB-aridity relationship not been given rigorous attention. We investigated US forests using new 1984-2019 database fire events and 2001-2020 satellite-based records daily growth. While forest-fire frequency duration grow linearly with aridity, results from growth rates individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential due to extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote growth, such aridification, potent effects on larger As increases linearly, large accelerates, leading AFAB.

Language: Английский

Citations

92