Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 154 - 161

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

Abstract A severe agricultural drought swept Central Asia in 2021, causing mass die-offs of crops and livestock. The anthropogenic contribution to declines soil moisture this region over recent decades has remained unclear. Here we show from analysis large ensemble simulations that the aggravation droughts southern since 1992 can be attributed both forcing internal variability associated with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Although negative-to-positive phase transition IPO before offset human-induced decline, find positive-to-negative thereafter doubled externally forced rate drying early growing season. Human-induced loss will probably further aggravated following century due warming, albeit increasing precipitation, our project trend not counterbalanced by change. Instead, could modulate rates near term an amplitude −2 (+2) standard deviation projected amplify (weaken) decrease surface nearly 75% (60%). findings highlight need for interplay between natural considered policymakers climate-sensitive region.

Language: Английский

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Groundwater depletion in California’s Central Valley accelerates during megadrought

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Dec. 19, 2022

Abstract Groundwater provides nearly half of irrigation water supply, and it enables resilience during drought, but in many regions the world, remains poorly, if at all managed. In heavily agricultural like California’s Central Valley, where groundwater management is being slowly implemented over a 27-year period that began 2015, two–thirds or more which has led to falling tables, drying wells, subsiding land, its long-term disappearance. Here we use two decades observations from NASA’s GRACE satellite missions show rate depletion Valley been accelerating since 2003 (1.86 km 3 /yr, 1961–2021; 2.41 2003–2021; 8.58 2019–2021), megadrought southwestern North America. Results suggest need for expedited implementation ensure availability increasingly intense droughts future.

Language: Английский

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Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 1064 - 1076

Published: July 25, 2022

Language: Английский

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Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(10), P. 1075 - 1081

Published: Sept. 18, 2023

Abstract Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight these occurring after 1970. The types this time period followed either a super El Niño or central Pacific Niño. We find differ from single-year Niñas by prominent onset rate, which is rooted in western warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for type thermocline type. results large ensemble climate simulations support observed events–western warming link. More exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if continues warm relative Pacific.

Language: Английский

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Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 625(7994), P. 293 - 300

Published: Jan. 10, 2024

Abstract Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark pace climate change manage differential water security risks snowpack declines 1–4 . So far, however, observational uncertainties in mass 5,6 have made detection attribution human-forced losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused Northern Hemisphere-scale March over 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble reconstructions, identify robust trends 82 out 169 major Hemisphere river basins, 31 which can confidently attribute human influence. Most crucially, a generalizable highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity snowpack, becomes marginally more sensitive one degree Celsius as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains lack widespread so far augurs much sharper most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize their consequences are attributable—even absent clear individual products—and will accelerate homogenize with near-term warming, posing resources absence substantial mitigation.

Language: Английский

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