Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6611)

Published: Sept. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 75 - 82

Published: Dec. 22, 2022

Language: Английский

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Museums and Digital Culture: From Reality to Digitality in the Age of COVID-19

Heritage, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1), P. 192 - 214

Published: Jan. 12, 2022

Museums increasingly recognize the need to address advances in digital culture which impact expectations and needs of their audiences. Museum collections real objects be presented both on own premises digitally online, especially as social media becomes more influential people’s everyday lives. From interdisciplinary perspectives across culture, art, technology, we investigate these challenges magnified by computational looking particularly at recent relevant reports changes ways museums interact with public. We focus human behavior, experience, interaction context artists, engagement using observational authors a basis for discussion. Our research shows that COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated many driving museum transformation, about this paper presents landscape view its characteristics challenges. evidence will prepared than ever adapt unabated technological set midst cultural revolution, now intrinsic are inevitably connected participating global ecosystem where they find themselves entrenched, underscoring central importance an inclusive integrative model between physical reality.

Language: Английский

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Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1331 - 1342

Published: June 22, 2023

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is possibility of collapse, where landscapes and societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies extreme events strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single may provide poor estimates impact climate human activities ecosystems. We conduct experiments four models simulate abrupt Chilika lagoon fishery, Easter Island community, forest dieback lake water quality—representing with range anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under levels primary but additional stresses and/or inclusion noise all bring collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. discuss implications further research need humanity be vigilant signs are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought. Current models, stress, have limited ability anticipate ecosystem due activities. Experiments simulating interactions show how much earlier can happen.

Language: Английский

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Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 6, 2024

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play unique role in identifying anticipating phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short temporal early warning points, complementary spatial indicators leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with system models improve process-based understanding their interactions, potential cascades. Such fine-resolution support point management

Language: Английский

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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 41 - 74

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Abstract. Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples such include Greenland Ice Sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual elements, interactions between them less well understood. Also, potential events to induce additional elsewhere or stabilize other is largely unknown. Here, we map out current state literature climate review influences them. To do so, gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, conceptual understanding, as paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. uncertainties large, find indications many destabilizing. Therefore, conclude should not only be in isolation, but also more emphasis has put interactions. This means cascades cannot ruled centennial millennial timescales warming levels 1.5 2.0 ∘C shorter if surpassed ∘C. At these higher then fast AMOC address crucial gaps element interactions, propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, system modeling expertise, computational advances, expert knowledge.

Language: Английский

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Self-organization as a mechanism of resilience in dryland ecosystems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(6)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Self-organized spatial patterns are a common feature of complex systems, ranging from microbial communities to mussel beds and drylands. While the theoretical implications these for ecosystem-level processes, such as functioning resilience, have been extensively studied, empirical evidence remains scarce. To address this gap, we analyzed global drylands along an aridity gradient using remote sensing, field data, modeling. We found that structure vegetation strengthens increases, which is associated with maintenance high level soil multifunctionality, even levels rise up certain threshold. The combination results those two individual-based models indicate self-organized not only form in response stressful environmental conditions but also provide ability adapt changing while maintaining their functioning, adaptive capacity lost degraded ecosystems. Self-organization thereby plays vital role enhancing resilience Overall, our findings contribute deeper understanding relationship between dryland resilience. They represent significant step forward development indicators ecosystem critical tools managing preserving valuable ecosystems warmer more arid world.

Language: Английский

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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(12)

Published: March 22, 2024

Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations geophysical flows levels lower than threshold. Using primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate collapse Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due increasing glacial melt. Considerably before collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping (ITP) transitions between multiple stable circulation states. 2.75 million years model simulations, uncover very rugged stability landscape featuring regions up nine coexisting The path an sequence ITPs depends on rate change meltwater input. This challenges our ability predict define safe limits for TPs.

Language: Английский

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Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Abstract Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this would substantially increase probability triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate risks associated with several policy-relevant future scenarios, using stylised Earth system model four interconnected We show that following policies century commit to 45% risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back below °C. find increases every additional 0.1 overshoot above and strongly accelerates for peak 2.0 Achieving maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions 2100 paramount minimise in long term. Our results underscore stringent reductions decade critical planetary stability.

Language: Английский

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Far-from-Equilibrium Traveling Pulses in Sloped Semiarid Environments Driven by Autotoxicity Effects

SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 85(1), P. 188 - 209

Published: Jan. 27, 2025

Language: Английский

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