Global Carbon Budget 2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 965 - 1039

Published: March 14, 2025

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC) data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The net uptake by ocean (SOCEAN, called sink) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 fugacity CO2). land (SLAND, dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence sinks provided atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system sum all sources results imbalance (BIM), measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2023, EFOS increased 1.3 % relative 2022, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 when carbonation sink not included), ELUC was 1.0 0.7 yr−1, for total emission (including 11.1 0.9 (40.6 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, GATM 5.9 0.2 (2.79 0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.9 0.4 SLAND 2.3 near-zero BIM (−0.02 averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ppm. Preliminary 2024 suggest an increase +0.8 (−0.2 1.7 %) globally 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 52 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2023, overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) low agreement between different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy sink. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Language: Английский

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Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 15, 2025

Abstract Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies weather and prolongs seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems human populations to impacts wildfires on environment, society, economy. The rapid pace these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, governance structures needed adopt informed, holistic approaches management that address both current future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach combines prevention, response, recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, cultural factors into strategies. However, remains highly context-dependent, encompassing wide array practices with varying degrees ecological societal integration. This review explores as adaptation mitigation strategy for altered regimes. It provides overview progress challenges associated implementing across different regions worldwide. also proposes five core objectives outlines roadmap incremental steps advancing adapt ongoing regimes, thereby maximizing its potential benefit people nature.

Language: Английский

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Disentangling the drivers of wildfires

Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 387(6729), P. 22 - 23

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

The risk of wildfires varies across regions with different vegetation.

Language: Английский

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Comment on essd-2024-519

Published: Jan. 6, 2025

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesise datasets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO₂ (E_FOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (E_LUC) data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (G_ATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (S_OCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO₂-products. (S_LAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements Earth System Models. sum all sources results imbalance (B_IM), measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2023, E_FOS increased 1.3 % relative 2022, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr^-1 (10.3 when carbonation not included), E_LUC was 1.0 0.7 yr^-1, for total emission (including sink) 11.1 0.9 (40.6 3.2 GtCO₂ yr^-1). Also, G_ATM 5.9 0.2 (2.79 0.1 ppm yr^-1), S_OCEAN 2.9 0.4 S_LAND 2.3 near zero B_IM (-0.02 averaged over 2023 reached 419.3 ppm. Preliminary 2024, suggest an increase +0.8 (-0.3 1.9 %) globally, 2.8 reaching 422.5 ppm, 52 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2023, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) low agreement between different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy sink. This living update documents applied this most-recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Language: Английский

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Humans have substantially extended fire seasons in all biomes on Earth

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

The conjunction of lightning ignitions and dry vegetation has shaped fire regimes throughout geological time. These natural have in turn influenced the adaptation biotas globally. Anthropogenic use, however, radically transformed worldwide by extending seasons to limits bounded periods high fuel moisture. Conversely, active suppression typically limited occurrence extent ignited fires – particularly where population density is higher. Disaggregating contemporary human- lightning-caused seasonal patterns globally can shed light on magnitude anthropogenic change among biomes. Using global datasets flammability moisture thresholds we define distribution seasons. We then use a record strike disaggregate season into mixed (i.e., present) periods, before describing respective importance these amongst assess breadth against daily satellite burned area (2001–2023) contextualise areas within productivity human using established productivity-fire activity relationship. Collectively, show that current influences substantially lengthening seasons, irrespective local land practices, density, occurrence, biome type.

Language: Английский

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Taking Academic Ownership of the Supply Chain Emissions Discourse

Journal of Supply Chain Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

ABSTRACT The climate crisis requires a focus on supply chain emissions—both upstream and downstream. Although emissions typically account for the majority of company's greenhouse gas emissions, discipline management (SCM) has yet to fully engage in this discourse, leaving substantial research opportunities untapped. This editorial calls upon SCM scholars take responsibility actively study by proposing comprehensive agenda. authors explore emerging corporate interventions aimed at reducing emissions. They develop framework categorizing these as either collaborative or authoritative, targeting behavioral operational changes. Based framework, within are then discussed, following four different styles theorizing—propositional, processual, perspectival provocative—to promote theoretical advancements. By embracing agenda, can play critical role discourse have strong societal impact.

Language: Английский

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Wildfires: Burning our way to a ‘hot house Earth’?

Current Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 35(2), P. R74 - R76

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climate feedback of forest fires amplified by atmospheric chemistry

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 21, 2025

Intensified forest wildfires, driven by climate change, release reactive gases that lead to reduced atmospheric oxidation capacity, hence increasing methane levels and amplifying warming. Our integrated analysis of fire chemistry models projects additional warming this mechanism rivals wetland feedback CO₂ the 2050s under intermediate pathway. finding highlights a critical role in regulating fire-climate feedback.

Language: Английский

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Modeling of Forest Fire Risk Areas of Amazonas Department, Peru: Comparative Evaluation of Three Machine Learning Methods

Forests, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 273 - 273

Published: Feb. 5, 2025

Forest fires are the result of poor land management and climate change. Depending on type affected eco-system, they can cause significant biodiversity losses. This study was conducted in Amazonas department Peru. Binary data obtained from MODIS satellite occurrence between 2010 2022 were used to build risk models. To avoid multicollinearity, 12 variables that trigger selected (Pearson ≤ 0.90) grouped into four factors: (i) topographic, (ii) social, (iii) climatic, (iv) biological. The program Rstudio three types machine learning applied: MaxENT, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random (RF). results show RF model has highest accuracy (AUC = 0.91), followed by MaxENT 0.87) SVM 0.84). In fire map elaborated with model, 38.8% region possesses a very low occurrence, 21.8% represents high-risk level zones. research will allow decision-makers improve forest Amazon prioritize prospective strategies such as installation water reservoirs areas zone. addition, it support awareness-raising actions among inhabitants at greatest so be prepared mitigate control generate solutions event occurring under different scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Air quality in the U.S. during the 2023 wildfire season

Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Feb. 8, 2025

Language: Английский

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