Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 116(23), P. 11195 - 11200

Published: May 20, 2019

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain predictive capability models. As a consequence, potential sheets largest source uncertainty projecting future SLR. Here, we report findings structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- intra-ice processes their tail dependences. We find that AR5, has grown, particular because uncertain dynamic effects. For +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with Paris Agreement, obtain median estimate 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, 95th percentile value 81 cm. +5 more unchecked emissions growth, corresponding values are 51 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion thermal expansion glacier results total exceeds 2 m at percentile. Our support use scenarios 21st century exceeding planning purposes. Beyond projected increase rapidly. The 2200, scenario, is 7.5 as result instabilities coming into play both West East Antarctica. Introducing dependences increases estimates roughly 15%.

Language: Английский

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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 100(10), P. 1987 - 2007

Published: May 28, 2019

An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable observations and any can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest TC some regions associated with track changes, while quality quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on intensity frequency. A number specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible influence TCs were assessed using the conventional approach preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating or detection). We conclude there is at least low medium confidence that observed poleward migration latitude maximum western North Pacific detectable, highly unusual compared expected natural variability. Opinion author team divided demonstrate discernible influence, other represent changes. The issue then reframed by assessing evidence seeking reduce chance II missing understating For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance evidence” criterion assessment. This leads more speculative detection and/or attribution statements, which recognize have substantial potential being false alarms detection) but may useful risk Several examples these alternative derived approach, presented report.

Language: Английский

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Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 2(1), P. 40 - 58

Published: Dec. 10, 2020

Language: Английский

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Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(3), P. 320 - 337

Published: March 1, 2019

Despite widespread efforts to implement climate services, there is almost no literature that systematically analyzes users' needs. This paper addresses this gap by applying a decision analysis perspective identify what kind of mean sea level rise (SLR) information needed for local coastal adaptation decisions. We first characterize these decisions, then suitable approaches and the required, finally discuss if how needs can be met given state art science. find four types are needed: (i) probabilistic predictions short-term decisions when users uncertainty tolerant; (ii) high-end low-end SLR scenarios chosen different levels tolerance; (iii) upper bounds with low (iv) learning derived from estimating knowledge will plausibly emerge about over time. Probabilistic only attained near term (i.e., 2030–2050) before significantly diverges between high emission scenarios, locations which modes variability well understood vertical land movement contribution small. Meaningful cannot defined unambiguously physical perspective. Low- tolerance produced, but involves both expert user judgments. The procedure elaborated here applied other required mitigation purposes.

Language: Английский

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Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum

Quaternary Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 220, P. 359 - 371

Published: Aug. 20, 2019

Determining the rates, mechanisms, and geographic variability of relative sea-level (RSL) change following Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides insight into sensitivity ice sheets to climate change, response solid Earth gravity field ice-mass redistribution, constrains statistical physical models used project future rise. To do so in a scientifically robust way requires standardized datasets that enable broad spatial comparisons minimize bias. As part larger goal develop unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database, this special issue we provide synthesis regional data resulted from first ‘Geographic HOLocene SEA level (HOLSEA)’ meetings Mt Hood, Oregon (2016) St Lucia, South Africa (2017). The HOLSEA brought together researchers agree upon consistent protocol standardize, interpret, incorporate realistic uncertainties data. This ten geographical regions including new databases Atlantic Europe Russian Arctic revised/expanded Canada, British Isles, Netherlands, western Mediterranean, Adriatic, Israel, Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia, Indian Ocean. In total, database derived includes 5634 (5290 validated) index (n = 3202) limiting points 2088) span ∼20,000 years ago present. Progress improving standardization has also been accompanied by advancements analytical methods infer patterns rates geological have spatially temporally sparse distribution geochronological elevational uncertainties. marks inception database.

Language: Английский

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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 39 - 54

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: May 8, 2020

Abstract Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation adaptation decisions. To elicit from members the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected likely (central 66% probability) GMSL 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, 0.54–2.15 2300, relative 1986–2005. RCP 8.5, same 0.63–1.32 1.67–5.61 2300. Expert for 2100 similar those original survey, although projection 2300 has extended tails is higher than survey. Experts give likelihood 42% (original survey) 45% (current that under high-emissions scenario will exceed upper bound (0.98 m) range estimated Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which considered have an exceedance 17%. Responses open-ended questions suggest increases in upper-end estimates arose recent influential studies about impact marine ice cliff instability meltwater contribution Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Language: Английский

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Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 621(7977), P. 112 - 119

Published: Aug. 30, 2023

Abstract Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon trapping mineral sediment 1 . The stability reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked reef-derived accumulation vertical accretion protective coral reefs 2 persistence these ecosystems high rates contested 3 Here we show probability inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between marsh mangrove likely at 4 mm yr −1 highly 7 RSLR. As exceed , reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming 1.5 °C 2.0 would double area mapped exposed by 2080 2100. With warming, nearly all world’s forests almost 40% marshes estimated be least Meeting Paris agreement targets minimize disruption ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea‐Level Change and the Implications for the Future

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 58(3)

Published: April 17, 2020

Abstract Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state warming climate, but changes in regional are most relevant for coastal communities around world. With improvements to sea‐level observing system, knowledge change has advanced dramatically recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with situ observations have allowed comprehensive study and improved understanding diverse set drivers that lead variations space time. Despite advances, gaps contemporary remain inhibit ability predict how processes may future change. These arise part due complexity linkages between Here we review individual which then describe they combine vary regionally. The intent paper is provide overview current cause identify discuss limitations uncertainty our these processes. Areas where lack or needed information planning efforts particular focus. Finally, a goal this highlight role expanded observation network—particularly as related satellite observations—in scientific contributors

Language: Английский

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Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(12), P. 1235 - 1269

Published: Oct. 16, 2019

Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, deep uncertainty. For example, many measures to adapt sea-level involve infrastructure land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes will further influence responses in both systems. Thus, science has increasingly grappled implications (1) uncertainty future system projections, particularly emissions ice sheet dynamics; (2) overlay slow trends high-frequency variability (e.g., tides storms) that give most relevant impacts; (3) effects changing sea level on physical exposure vulnerability ecological socioeconomic systems; (4) challenges engaging stakeholder communities scientific process a way genuinely increases utility for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental research remains be done, but critical issues sit intersection sciences, social engineering, science, political economy. Addressing these demands better understanding coupled interactions mean extreme levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, migration; decision-first approaches identify focus upon those uncertainties concrete choices; economy allows become used science.

Language: Английский

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