Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 127 - 129

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

Language: Английский

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Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: Sept. 16, 2022

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such now potentially possible through operational predictions. However, improved understanding the causes regional these timescales is needed both attribute recent gain further confidence forecasts. Here we document Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project will address this need coordinated model experiments enabling different external drivers be isolated. We highlight account errors propose an attribution approach exploits differences between models diagnose real-world situation overcomes potential atmospheric circulation changes. The analysis proposed here provide substantial improvements our ability understand near-term support World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity Explaining Predicting Earth System Change.

Language: Английский

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Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: July 8, 2023

Atmospheric methane is both a potent greenhouse gas and photochemically active, with approximately equal anthropogenic natural sources. The addition of chlorine to the atmosphere has been proposed mitigate global warming through reduction by increasing its chemical loss. However, potential environmental impacts such climate mitigation remain unexplored. Here, sensitivity studies are conducted evaluate possible effects reactive emissions on budget, atmospheric composition radiative forcing. Because non-linear chemistry, in order achieve burden (instead an increase), atom needs be minimum three times estimated present-day burden. If removal target set 20%, 45%, or 70% less 2050 compared levels Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5), our modeling results suggest that additional fluxes 630, 1250, 1880 Tg Cl/year, respectively, needed. show also induces significant changes other important forcers. Remarkably, tropospheric ozone decrease large enough magnitude forcing similar methane. Adding Cl/year RCP8.5 scenario, chosen have most consistent current-day trends methane, will surface temperature 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 °C 2050, respectively. quantity method which added, interactions pathways, air quality ocean acidity, must carefully considered before any action taken.

Language: Английский

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Reduced Southern Ocean warming enhances global skill and signal-to-noise in an eddy-resolving decadal prediction system

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: July 31, 2023

Abstract The impact of increased model horizontal resolution on climate prediction performance is examined by comparing results from low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) decadal simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). There general improvement in global skill signal-to-noise characteristics, particularly noteworthy improvements eastern tropical Pacific, when order 1° all components to 0.1°/0.25° ocean/atmosphere. A key advance ocean eddy-resolving HR system reduction unrealistic warming Southern Ocean (SO) which we hypothesize has ramifications through its impacts Pacific multidecadal variability. suggest that accurate representation SO processes critical for improving predictions globally addressing longstanding issues coupled recent change.

Language: Английский

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Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study

The Lancet Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(9), P. e644 - e653

Published: Aug. 23, 2024

Excessively high and low temperatures substantially affect human health. Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat-related morbidity mortality, presenting unprecedented challenges public health systems. Since localised assessments of temperature-related mortality risk are essential formulate effective responses adaptation strategies, we aimed estimate the current future under four climate scenarios across all European regions.

Language: Английский

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Towards Useful Decadal Climate Services

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 103(7), P. E1705 - E1719

Published: July 1, 2022

Abstract The decadal time scale (∼1–10 years) bridges the gap between seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections. It is a key planning for users in many sectors as they seek to adapt our rapidly changing climate. While significant advances using initialized models make skillful have been made last decades, including coordinated international experiments multimodel forecast exchanges, few user-focused services developed. Here we highlight potential of four case studies from project led by institutions that produce real-time predictions. Working co-development with agriculture, energy, infrastructure, insurance sectors, prototype service products were This study describes challenge trying match user needs current scientific capability. For example, use large ensembles (achieved via multisystem approach) skillfully predicted large-scale environmental conditions, are found improve regional predictions, particularly midlatitudes. each service, two-page “product sheet” template was developed provides both concise probabilistic information on retrospective performance. We describe development cycle, where valuable feedback obtained “showcase event” wider group sector engaged. conclude society take full rapid advantage useful services, easier more timely access prediction data required, along building community expertise their use.

Language: Английский

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Rethinking river water temperature in a changing, human-dominated world

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. 125 - 128

Published: Feb. 22, 2023

Language: Английский

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The impact of high-speed rail on urban carbon emissions: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

Journal of Transport Geography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 110, P. 103641 - 103641

Published: June 1, 2023

Language: Английский

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The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) decadal prediction system

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 179 - 197

Published: Jan. 5, 2023

Abstract. Decadal climate predictions, obtained by constraining the initial condition of a dynamical model through truthful estimate observed state, provide an accurate assessment near-term change and are useful tool to inform decision-makers on future climate-related risks. Here we present results from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Climate Prediction (DCPP) decadal hindcasts produced with operational CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Center Change) prediction system (DPS), based fully coupled CMCC-CM2-SR5 model. A 20-member suite 10-year retrospective forecasts, initialized every year 1960 2020, is performed using full-field initialization strategy. The predictive skill for key variables assessed compared ensemble non-initialized historical simulations so as quantify added value initialization. In particular, DPS able skillfully reproduce past surface subsurface temperature fluctuations over large parts globe. North Atlantic Ocean region that benefits most initialization, largest enhancement occurring subpolar simulations. On other hand, Pacific rapidly decays forecast time, especially Pacific. terms precipitation, significantly higher than few specific regions, including Sahel, northern Eurasia, western central Europe. multidecadal variability also predicted, this likely contributes found remote areas downstream influence, circulation changes, teleconnections. Considering relatively small size, remarkable Oscillation, maximum correlations in 1–9 lead range. Systematic errors affect quality DPS, featuring prominent cold bias Northern Hemisphere, which not runs, suggesting that, some areas, adopted strategy perturbs equilibrium state quite significantly. encouraging study indicate land can be predictable multiyear range, they demonstrate valuable addition current generation DPSs. This stresses need further explore potential improving systems methods, aim reliable how regional will evolve next decade.

Language: Английский

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Inside the IPCC

Published: June 3, 2024

Inside the IPCC explores institution of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by focusing people's experiences as authors. While budget and overall population an report cycle is small, its influence public views climate change outsized. analyzes social human sides writing look like, a complement to understanding authoritative reports that underwrite policy decisions at many scales governance. This study shows how IPCC's dimensions are in fact main strength organization. By stepping back reveal what goes into making science assessments, aims help people develop more realistic, thus, actionable, solutions deal with it. title also available Open Access Cambridge Core.

Language: Английский

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