The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 321 - 340

Published: Feb. 8, 2022

Abstract. The enhanced warming trend and precipitation decline in the Mediterranean region make it a climate change hotspot. We compare projections of multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 6 (CMIP6) historical future scenario simulations to quantify impacts already changing region. In particular, we investigate changes temperature during 21st century following scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 for CMIP5 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 from CMIP6, as well HighResMIP high-resolution experiments. A model weighting scheme is applied obtain constrained estimates projected changes, which accounts performance inter-independence multi-model ensembles, using an observational ensemble reference. Results indicate robust significant over all seasons, ensembles vary between CMIPs, CMIP6 being that projects stronger warming. amplified with respect global mean mainly found summer. summer season can span 1.83 8.49 ∘C 1.22 6.63 considering three different 50 % inter-model spread by end century. Contrarily projections, show greater uncertainties spatial heterogeneity. However, large parts high emission (−49 −16 −47 −22 CMIP5). While there less disagreement than latter shows larger declines some regions. obtained trends weaker thereby reducing difference means 1.32 before 0.68 after weighting.

Language: Английский

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Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria in Aquaculture and Climate Change: A Challenge for Health in the Mediterranean Area

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 18(11), P. 5723 - 5723

Published: May 26, 2021

Aquaculture is the productive activity that will play a crucial role in challenges of millennium, such as need for proteins support humans and respect environment. an important economic Mediterranean basin. A great impact presented, however, by aquaculture practices they involve use antibiotics treatment prophylaxis. As consequence aquaculture, antibiotic resistance induced surrounding bacteria column water, sediment, fish-associated bacterial strains. Through horizontal gene transfer, can diffuse antibiotic-resistance genes mobile further spreading genetic determinants. Once triggered, easily spreads among aquatic microbial communities and, from there, reach human pathogenic bacteria, making vain health. Climate change claims significant this context, rising temperatures affect cell physiology same way antibiotics, causing to begin with. The Sea represents ‘hot spot’ terms climate aspects area be significantly amplified, thus increasing threats Practices must adopted counteract negative impacts on health, with reduction pivotal point. In meantime, it necessary act against reducing anthropogenic impacts, example CO2 emissions into atmosphere. One Health type approach, which involves intervention different skills, veterinary, ecology, medicine compliance principles sustainability, strongly recommended face these animal environmental safety area.

Language: Английский

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Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 256, P. 105576 - 105576

Published: March 19, 2021

Language: Английский

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How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(15)

Published: Aug. 8, 2023

Abstract The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity return period (RP) compared it with past mega CDHWs in hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for CDHW event, which was unprecedented Northern western parts of RPs 354, 420, 280 years, respectively. reduced soil moisture due precipitation deficits high contributed persistence drought, creating positive feedback loop dry soils led even drier conditions. In light our findings, is evident that global warming poses increased risks events, are likely increase.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change over the Mediterranean Region: Local Temperature and Precipitation Variations at Five Pilot Sites

Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(16), P. 2499 - 2499

Published: Aug. 13, 2022

The Mediterranean region is one of the most responsive areas to climate change and was identified as a major “hot-spot” based on global analyses. This study provides insight into local changes in under scope InTheMED project, which part PRIMA programme. Precipitation temperature were analyzed an historical period until end this century for five pilot sites, located between two shores region. We used ensemble 17 Regional Climate Models, developed framework EURO-CORDEX initiative, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). Over period, presents upward trends, are statistically significant some while precipitation does not show tendencies. These trends will be maintained future predicted by models projections: all indicate progressive robust warming moderate total annual precipitation, but seasonal variations identified. Future droughts events over studied considering maximum duration heat waves, their peak temperature, number consecutive dry days. All sites expected increase waves temperature. Furthermore, days areas.

Language: Английский

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Wetting and drying trends under climate change

Nature Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(6), P. 502 - 513

Published: May 8, 2023

Language: Английский

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Drivers of accelerated warming in Mediterranean climate-type regions

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: July 20, 2023

Abstract The near-surface temperature in Mediterranean climate-type regions has increased overall similarly or more rapidly than the global mean rates. Although these have comparable climate characteristics and are located at similar latitudes, recent warming acceleration is most pronounced Basin. Here, we investigate contributions of several drivers to regional anomalies. We consider greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, land–atmosphere interactions, natural variability modes. Our results highlight dominant role anthropogenic gas radiative forcing all regions, particularly those northern hemisphere. In Basin, largely due combined effect declining aerosols a negative trend soil moisture. While land-atmosphere feedbacks also important other locations (e.g., California Southern Africa), this synergy unique These two components equivalent importance. Such not fully resolved current projections.

Language: Английский

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Climate change-induced aridity is affecting agriculture in Northeast Italy

Agricultural Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 208, P. 103647 - 103647

Published: April 5, 2023

The Mediterranean basin and specifically Northeast Italy are recognised as climate change hotspots. latter is a key socio-economic area in Europe among the most agriculturally productive. However, increasingly frequent drought periods (typical of drier climates) threatening agriculture. An extreme event occurred summer 2022. It dramatically affected northern Italy, through high temperatures, water shortages indirect processes (such saltwater intrusion Po River Delta). objective to map quantify agricultural areas at risk zone shift due human-induced change, providing comprehensive overview main threatened systems supporting use projections historical data analysis. We compared distribution current (1980 > 2016) future (2071 2100; RCP8.5 scenario) zones for 8 14 provinces Italy. Further analyses were performed on support analyse during events: (1) multi-temporal Aridity Index (AI) investigate aridification dynamics; (2) focus 2022 (drought temperature extremes, situation that likely occur more often future), combining Vegetation Health (VHI) with zonal investigation Land Surface Temperature (LST); (3) Delta cultural landscape. results show evolving towards conditions, posing challenge Adriatic coast could become an Arid zone, finding line observations. Rice fields will be (76% their surface well irrigated lands essential food security (around 20% expected zone). Worthy what foreseen crops slopes (often not irrigated), which may experience summers (60% surface). identified farm scale mapping where located, extent is, currently implemented. Such information would facilitate early action, guiding large-scale planning resilient Findings promote sustainable management plans, open debate worth growing based climate, inspire localised studies design mitigation measures.

Language: Английский

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Severe droughts in North Africa: A review of drivers, impacts and management

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 250, P. 104701 - 104701

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Efficacy of Nature-based Solutions for coastal protection under a changing climate: A modelling approach

Coastal Engineering, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104700 - 104700

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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