Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
52(6)
Published: March 23, 2025
Abstract
Extreme
climate
events
(ECEs)
like
heavy
rainfall
and
heatwaves
significantly
impact
society,
change
is
altering
their
magnitude
frequency.
Generalized
Value
(GEV)
distributions
help
quantify
these
ECEs
guide
human
system
design.
We
train
a
machine
learning
(ML)
model
using
set
of
arbitrary
GEV
to
estimate
the
sample
size
required
determine
return
value
with
specific
uncertainty.
For
negative
shape
parameter
maximum
extreme
temperatures
are
bounded
fewer
samples
needed
given
uncertainty
than
extremes
which
have
positive
unbounded
values.
example,
if
1‐in‐20‐year
heatwave
event
requires
400
1%
uncertainty,
one
would
need
20
different
20‐year
simulations.
Achieving
such
quantities
will
require
extensive
downscaling
simulations,
potentially
aided
by
ML‐based
methods
increase
ensemble
size.
Science Advances,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
8(18)
Published: May 4, 2022
In
June
2021,
western
North
America
experienced
a
record-breaking
heat
wave
outside
the
distribution
of
previously
observed
temperatures.
While
it
is
clear
that
event
was
extreme,
not
obvious
whether
other
areas
in
world
have
also
events
so
far
their
natural
variability.
Using
novel
assessment
extremes,
we
investigate
how
extreme
this
global
context.
Characterizing
relative
intensity
an
as
number
standard
deviations
from
mean,
remarkable,
coming
at
over
four
deviations.
Throughout
globe,
where
reliable
data,
only
five
waves
were
found
to
be
more
since
1960.
We
find
both
reanalyses
and
climate
projections,
statistical
extremes
increases
through
time,
line
with
mean
shift
due
change.
Regions
that,
by
chance,
had
recent
may
less
prepared
for
potentially
imminent
events.
Science Advances,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
8(43)
Published: Oct. 28, 2022
Increased
extreme
heat
is
among
the
clearest
impacts
of
global
warming,
but
economic
effects
waves
are
poorly
understood.
Using
subnational
data,
metrics
measuring
temperature
hottest
several
days
in
each
year,
and
an
ensemble
climate
models,
we
quantify
effect
intensity
on
growth
globally.
We
find
that
human-caused
increases
have
depressed
output
most
poor
tropical
regions
least
culpable
for
warming.
Cumulative
1992-2013
losses
from
anthropogenic
likely
fall
between
$5
trillion
$29.3
Losses
amount
to
6.7%
Gross
Domestic
Product
per
capita
year
bottom
income
decile,
only
1.5%
top
decile.
Our
results
potential
inform
adaptation
investments
demonstrate
how
inequality
both
a
cause
consequence
unequal
burden
change.
Environmental Research Climate,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
2(2), P. 023001 - 023001
Published: April 21, 2023
Abstract
Adaptation
to
climate
change
has
now
become
a
necessity
for
many
regions.
Yet,
adaptation
planning
at
regional
scales
over
the
next
few
decades
is
challenging
given
contingencies
originating
from
combination
of
different
sources
projection
uncertainty,
chief
among
them
internal
variability.
Here,
we
review
causes
and
consequences
variability,
how
it
can
be
quantified
accounted
in
uncertainty
assessments,
what
research
questions
remain
most
pertinent
better
understand
its
predictive
limits
science
society.
This
perspective
argues
putting
variability
into
spotlight
intensifying
collaborations
between
modeling
application
communities.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
16(1)
Published: March 10, 2025
Abstract
We
see
unprecedented
weather
causing
widespread
impacts
across
the
world.
In
this
perspective,
we
provide
an
overview
of
methods
that
help
anticipate
hazards
can
contribute
to
stop
being
surprised.
then
discuss
disaster
management
and
climate
adaptation
practices,
their
gaps,
how
may
build
resilience.
stimulate
thinking
about
transformative
as
a
foundation
for
long-term
resilience
weather,
supported
by
incremental
through
upgrading
existing
infrastructure,
reactive
short-term
early
action
response.
Because
in
end,
should
take
responsibility
rather
than
surprised
weather.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
48(18)
Published: Sept. 8, 2021
Abstract
When
multiple
extremes
occur
in
rapid
sequence,
their
impacts
cascade
to
cause
disproportionate
damages.
However,
the
prevalence
of
univariate
definitions
and
inability
identify
low‐likelihood
events
short
observations/simulations
leave
knowledge
on
sequential
sparse.
Leveraging
two
initial‐condition
large
ensembles,
we
project
future
changes
historically
unprecedented
flood‐hot
China.
Results
show
that
despite
dozens
1
50‐year
floods
hot
more
than
2,000
years
historical
simulations,
sequenced
occurrence
within
a
week
has
no
precedent.
This
out‐of‐ordinary
configuration
is
projected
be
increasingly
possible
across
China,
with
earlier
emergence
larger
frequency
increases
expected
Southwest
Southeast
The
direction,
spatial
extent,
magnitude
cannot
explained
by
internal
variability
alone,
though
it
potential
modulate
human‐caused
timing
magnitude.
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
40(1), P. 14 - 28
Published: July 22, 2022
Abstract
An
extraordinary
and
unprecedented
heatwave
swept
across
western
North
America
(i.e.,
the
Pacific
Northwest)
in
late
June
of
2021,
resulting
hundreds
deaths,
a
massive
die-off
sea
creatures
off
coast,
horrific
wildfires.
Here,
we
use
observational
data
to
find
atmospheric
circulation
variabilities
Arctic-Pacific-Canada
patterns
that
co-occurred
with
development
mature
phases
heatwave,
as
well
pattern,
which
coincided
decaying
eastward
movement
heatwave.
Climate
models
from
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
(Phase
6)
are
not
designed
simulate
particular
event
like
this
one.
Still,
show
greenhouse
gases
main
reason
for
long-term
increase
average
daily
maximum
temperature
past
future.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
14(1)
Published: Aug. 22, 2023
Recent
temperature
extremes
have
shattered
previously
observed
records,
reaching
intensities
that
were
inconceivable
before
the
events.
Could
possibility
of
an
event
with
such
unprecedented
intensity
as
2021
Pacific
Northwest
heatwave
been
foreseen,
based
on
climate
model
information
available
event?
scientific
community
quantified
its
potential
current
generation
models?
Here,
we
demonstrate
how
ensemble
boosting
approach
can
be
used
to
generate
physically
plausible
storylines
a
hotter
than
in
Northwest.
We
also
show
heatwaves
much
greater
ever
are
possible
other
locations
like
Greater
Chicago
and
Paris
regions.
In
order
establish
confidence
'black
swan'-type
events,
different
lines
evidence
need
combined
along
process
understanding
make
this
robust
actionable
for
stakeholders.
Science Advances,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
9(36)
Published: Sept. 8, 2023
As
our
planet
warms,
a
critical
research
question
is
when
and
where
temperatures
will
exceed
the
limits
of
what
human
body
can
tolerate.
Past
modeling
efforts
have
investigated
35°C
wet-bulb
threshold,
proposed
as
theoretical
upper
limit
to
survivability
taking
into
account
physiological
behavioral
adaptation.
Here,
we
conduct
an
extreme
value
theory
analysis
weather
station
observations
climate
model
projections
investigate
emergence
empirically
supported
heat
compensability
limit.
We
show
that
hottest
parts
world
already
experience
these
extremes
on
limited
basis
under
moderate
continued
warming
every
continent,
except
Antarctica,
see
rapid
increase
in
their
extent
frequency.
To
conclude,
discuss
consequences
this
noncompensable
need
for
incorporating
different
thermal
adaptation
planning.
Weather and Climate Extremes,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
38, P. 100512 - 100512
Published: Sept. 27, 2022
Throughout
history,
Europe
and
North
America
have
experienced
intense
long-lasting
droughts
with
large
impacts
on
society
ecosystem
such
as
the
recent
drought
2018/2019
historical
1540
in
Europe,
or
US
Dust
Bowl
of
1930s.
To
increase
resilience
develop
adaptation
strategies
to
extreme
droughts,
it
is
important
understand
how
dry
a
worst-case
would
be
long
take
recover
from
it.
This
study
introduces
evaluates
methodological
framework
generate
coherent
climate
model-based
storylines
different
severities
for
locations.
The
so-called
iterative
ensemble
resampling
method
repeatedly
runs
ensembles
only
keeps
those
members,
which
minimize
local
precipitation.
are
developed
fully
coupled
global
model
CESM1.
first
part
analysis
demonstrates
feasibility
by
generating
some
most
possible.
Using
stringent
precipitation
criteria,
accumulated
reduced
80%
relative
long-term
average
western
77%
central
America,
respectively,
over
multiple
years.
number
days
Western
European
storyline
corresponds
estimates
reconstructed
Central
Europe.
low
induces
soil
moisture
deficit
that
physically
consistent
but
beyond
high
return
levels
estimated
based
purely
statistically
fitted
generalized
value
(GEV)
distributions.
In
second
part,
used
setup
assess
recovery
time
deficits.
Over
driest
regions
well
eastern
recovers
period
few
months
up
more
than
five
years,
depending
mean
atmospheric
circulation
rather
strength
deficit.
can
very
rare
conduct
idealized
experiments.
When
lowering
selection
criteria
precipitation,
less
likely
occur
real
world.
approach
help
stress
test
socio-economic
system
potential
periods.