Introduction: Cyber-conflict – Moving from speculation to investigation

Journal of Peace Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1), P. 3 - 9

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Investigating cyber conflict is enormously difficult. The domain complex, quality data are sparse, international affairs shrouded in secrecy, and despite its seeming ubiquity, power has only recently entered the battlefield. In face of these challenges, we must rise to meet challenges cybersecurity research by deploying creative methods that collect verifiable probatory data, which allow for predictive models behavior. Against this backdrop, our special issue offers a vision embraces culture rigorous inquiry based on theoretically robust, policy relevant investigation. We highlight two key features. First, at intersection political science incorporate human dimension conflict. A security approach places people as primary objects recognizes individual-level analyses can shed light macro-level trends. Second, adopt rigorous, empirical methods. embrace broad tent collection techniques – spanning qualitative quantitative, experimental, observational research. What integral all scholarship abides highest standards replicability falsifiability. articles contained collectively form proof concept expands horizons from substantive viewpoint (adding prevalent military/strategic analyses), methodological perspective (propounding importance scrutiny). Together, 10 pieces affirm there now critical mass substantively diverse empirically field cybersecurity, community capable making bold, grounded, tested claims verify how or not altering nature peace, relations.

Language: Английский

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If it bleeps it leads? Media coverage on cyber conflict and misperception

Journal of Peace Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1), P. 72 - 86

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

What determines media coverage on cyber conflict (CC)? Media bias fostering misperception is a well-established problem in reporting. Because of the secrecy and complexity surrounding operations (COs), where most data moreover come from marketing publications by private sector firms, this likely to be especially pronounced reporting threats. shapes public perception, such can shape dynamics outcomes with potentially destabilizing consequences. Yet little research has examined systematically. This study connects existing literature CC formulate four theoretical explanations for variation COs based corresponding characteristics CO. We introduce new dataset sector, which we call Cyber Conflict Coverage Dataset, each these operations. Consequently, conduct statistical analysis identify correlate quantity. shows that use novel techniques, specifically zero-day exploits, highly significant predictor Operations targeting military or financial generate less coverage. also find effect tend receive more compared espionage, but result not statistically significant. Nonetheless, predictive models explain limited news These findings indicate are treated differently than other forms conflict, help persistent threat perception among despite absence catastrophic cyberattacks.

Language: Английский

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How the process of discovering cyberattacks biases our understanding of cybersecurity

Journal of Peace Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1), P. 28 - 43

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Social scientists do not directly study cyberattacks; they draw inferences from attack reports that are public and visible. Like human rights violations or war casualties, there missing cyberattacks researchers have observed. The existing approach is to either ignore data assume exist argue reported attacks accurately represent the events. This article first detail steps between attack, discovery report identify sources of bias in cyber data. Visibility presents significant inferential challenges for cybersecurity – some easy observe claimed by attackers, while others take a long time surface carried out actors seeking hide their actions. argues reporting likely share features longest surface. It builds on datasets against Five Eyes (an intelligence alliance composed Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom States) governments adds new when occurred, media them, characteristics attackers techniques. Leveraging survival models, it demonstrates how delay disclosure depends both attacker’s identity (state non-state) technical (whether targets information confidentiality, integrity, availability). events least be non-state target availability. Our understanding ‘persistent engagement,’ relative capabilities, ‘intelligence contests’ coercion rely measuring restraint. article’s findings cast doubt whether measured observed restraint, informs should consider external validity. has implications our bias, empirical research secrecy international relations.

Language: Английский

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How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study

Journal of Peace Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1), P. 119 - 133

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Cyber operations ranging from deception and espionage to disruption high-end degradation have become a central feature of modern statecraft in the digital age, yet we lack clear understanding how decision-makers employ respond cyber times crisis. Our research provides theoretical mechanisms empirical evidence for react triggers utilize responses during crises. Specifically, argue that availability response creates off-ramps non-escalatory engagement. Based on experimental wargames involving rival states with power parity militarized disputes randomized options, find options reduces escalatory behavior via substitution mechanism. In absence however, participants pursue more conventional, actions, regardless triggering findings underscore enhancing might reduce strategic escalation risks offer space bargain periods conflict.

Language: Английский

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Identification-imitation-amplification: understanding divisive influence campaigns through cyberspace

Intelligence & National Security, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(5), P. 897 - 914

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Cyber-enabled influence campaigns sit at the nexus of intelligence-based deception and strategic-oriented delivered effects. They represent an increasing potential for states to re-configure domestic political dynamics scale. We offer analytical construct better understand mechanism by which cyber-enabled operations work discern strategic goals behind campaigns.

Language: Английский

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From Russia with fear: fear appeals and the patterns of cyber-enabled influence operations

Journal of Cybersecurity, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Much research on influence operations (IO) and cyber-enabled (CEIO) rests the assumption that state-backed digital interference attempts to generically produce sociopolitical division favorable perpetrator’s own interests. And yet, empirical record of malicious IO during 2010s show social media manipulation messaging takes a number forms. In this article, we survey arguments regarding targeting tactics techniques associated with age suggest existing accounts tend ignore strategic context foreign interference. We propose state-sponsored are not unlike conventional political campaigns in they an evolving flow information rooted several key objectives assumptions. However, position actors as outside force constrains opportunities for effective forces certain operational constraints shape practice. These actors, generally unable create sensation from nothing without being unveiled, rely domestic events tied broad macrosocial (e.g. act race violence or protest activity) conditions wherein can be leveraged gain. Once event occurs, belligerents tailor steps taken embed themselves relevant networks goal turning toward some action. illustrate validate framework using content Russian Federation’s coordinated trolling campaign against USA between 2015 2016. deploy testing approach centered fear appeals likely method engaging populations relative triggering find support our framework. Specifically, while strong associations exist ad emissions Facebook societal unrest period, those relationships statistically causal. temporal ordering is highly suggestive strategy responsive dividing events. Of unique interest, also see malware targeted at later stages appeal threat lifecycle, implying lessons specifically interested relationship CEIO disinformation tactics.

Language: Английский

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The Subversion Aversion Paradox: Juxtaposing the Tactical and Strategic Utility of Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations

Journal of Global Security Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: Dec. 30, 2024

Abstract Recent work on information technology and cyber conflict in IR has turned to the rapidly expanding phenomena that is cyber-enabled influence operations (CEIO). CEIO represent a unique interaction of operational logics diverge from exceptions either or campaigns. In order examine when states choose deploy support IO, I turn new dataset—the Counter-Society Influence Operations (CSIO) dataset—that seeks counter-society interference more granular terms than existing data resources. By adopting coding scheme characterizes different forms attacks leveraged aid outcomes deploying novel covariates, confirm vast majority episodes involve preparatory use intrusion low-intensity likely fall away after first three months an campaign. contrast, few such related activities severe disruption attempts. Counterintuitively, however, find clear evidence escalatory activity linked IO negatively associated with campaign success. Likewise, this positively tied both eventual belligerent attribution measure congruence between objectives minor domestic political factions. call resulting dynamic “subversion aversion” paradox, situation which probability performative action during becomes as likelihood subversive success drops.

Language: Английский

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