From COVID-19 to monkeypox: a novel predictive model for emerging infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons

Deren Xu,

Weng Howe Chan, Habibollah Haron

et al.

BioData Mining, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(1)

Published: Oct. 22, 2024

The outbreak of emerging infectious diseases poses significant challenges to global public health. Accurate early forecasting is crucial for effective resource allocation and emergency response planning. This study aims develop a comprehensive predictive model diseases, integrating the blending framework, transfer learning, incremental biological feature Rt increase prediction accuracy practicality. By transferring features from COVID-19 dataset monkeypox introducing dynamically updated learning techniques, model's capability in data-scarce scenarios was significantly improved. research findings demonstrate that framework performs exceptionally well short-term (7-day) predictions. Furthermore, combination techniques enhanced adaptability precision, with 91.41% improvement RMSE an 89.13% MAE. In particular, inclusion enabled more accurately reflect dynamics disease spread, further improving by 1.91% MAE 2.17%. underscores application potential multimodel fusion real-time data updates prediction, offering new theoretical perspectives technical support. not only enriches foundation models but also provides reliable support health responses. Future should continue explore multiple sources enhancing generalization capabilities enhance practicality reliability tools.

Language: Английский

The SARS-CoV-2 test scale-up in the USA: an analysis of the number of tests produced and used over time and their modelled impact on the COVID-19 pandemic DOI Creative Commons

Steven Santos,

Matthew A. Humbard,

Anastasia S. Lambrou

et al.

The Lancet Public Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. e47 - e57

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis DOI Creative Commons

Xiangyanyu Xu,

Yanpeng Wu,

Allisandra G. Kummer

et al.

BMC Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 21(1)

Published: Sept. 29, 2023

Abstract Background After the first COVID-19 wave caused by ancestral lineage, pandemic has been fueled from continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Understanding key time-to-event periods for each emerging variant concern is critical as it can provide insights into future trajectory virus and help inform outbreak preparedness response planning. Here, we aim to examine how incubation period, serial interval, generation time have changed lineage different variants concern. Methods We conducted a systematic review meta-analysis that synthesized estimates (both realized intrinsic) Alpha, Beta, Omicron SARS-CoV-2. Results Our study included 280 records obtained 147 household studies, contact tracing or studies where epidemiological links were known. With variant, found progressive shortening analyzed periods, although did not find statistically significant differences between subvariants. BA.1 had shortest pooled period (3.49 days, 95% CI: 3.13–4.86 days), BA.5 interval (2.37 1.71–3.04 (2.99 2.48–3.49 days). Only one estimate intrinsic was available subvariants: 6.84 days (95% CrI: 5.72–8.60 days) BA.1. The highest investigated period. also observed shorter compared across lineages. When pooling lineages, considerable heterogeneities ( I 2 > 80%; refers percentage total variation due heterogeneity rather than chance), possibly resulting populations (e.g., deployed interventions, social behavior, demographic characteristics). Conclusions supports importance conducting investigations monitor changes in transmission patterns. findings highlight time, which lead epidemics spread faster, with larger peak incidence, harder control. consistently suggesting feature potential pre-symptomatic transmission. These observations are instrumental plan waves.

Language: Английский

Citations

37
Precision and Accuracy Limits of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology—Lessons Learned from SARS-CoV-2: A Scoping Review DOI Open Access
Juris Laicans, Brigita Dejus, Sandis Dejus

et al.

Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(9), P. 1220 - 1220

Published: April 25, 2024

Background: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has become crucial for early microbial outbreak detection and public health surveillance globally, underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, despite advancements in sampling analyses, interpreting results estimating infection rates pose challenges. Enhancements sewer system engineering, understanding wastewater environment, addressing impact of environment on accuracy are needed. Objective: This scoping review aims to identify engineering knowledge gaps WBE guide future study designs. Design: Research “wastewater-based epidemiology” involving “engineering”, published between 2015 2023, was extracted from Scopus database. Results: examines elements influencing WBE’s precision reliability, especially identifying measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA. It identifies significant effects analytical practices, wastewater’s composition performance. Conclusions: calls further investigation into economical evaluation methods these factors enhance data normalization interpretation, utilizing existing treatment plant used control, which could be a cost-effective approach over more expensive population biomarkers. approach, aside SARS-CoV-2, holds potential application broader number types diseases, as well consumption habits.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases DOI Creative Commons
Kelly Charniga, Sang Woo Park, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(10), P. e1012520 - e1012520

Published: Oct. 28, 2024

Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They used as inputs for mathematical statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found censoring, right truncation, dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating these biases large enough to have knock-on impacts across a number of use cases. Here, formulate checklist best practices reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide flowchart practitioners based on their data. Our examples focused the incubation period serial interval due importance outbreak response modeling, but our recommendations applicable other The recommendations, literature experience delay distributions during responses, help improve robustness utility reported estimates guidance evaluation downstream transmission models or analyses.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Comparison of Airborne SARS‐CoV‐2 Omicron and Pre‐Delta Variants Around Infected Patients DOI Creative Commons
Carl‐Johan Fraenkel, Sara Thuresson, Patrik Medstrand

et al.

Journal of Medical Virology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 97(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Transmissibility has increased during the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, possibly by improved airborne transmission. An transmission was noted also in many hospitals. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 room air hospitalized Omicron infected patients and compared results with previous findings pre-Delta variants to study if more prevalent patient rooms after introduction Omicron. Only 4 75 (5%) samples, from 3 43 included patients, were positive early wave, 14/120 (12%), 10 60 initial wave. No certain statistical difference between virus could be established, but tendency a lower occurrence at when adjusting for relevant confounders. These finding do not support hypothesis that aerosol emission diagnosed explain any risk hospital

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Clinical Manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Immunocompetent Adults in the Era of Widespread Population Immunity and Omicron Sublineage Viruses DOI
Alexander Shaffer, Eric A. Meyerowitz

Infectious Disease Clinics of North America, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains DOI Creative Commons
Cristiano Trevisin, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto

et al.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Morbidity and absenteeism due to SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza in healthcare personnel during the 2023-2024 season: a multicenter cohort study in Greece DOI
Helena C. Maltezou, Maria N. Gamaletsou, Theodoros V. Giannouchos

et al.

American Journal of Infection Control, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Household transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in New Zealand, 2022 DOI Creative Commons
Nayyereh Aminisani, Q. Sue Huang, Lauren Jelley

et al.

Vaccine X, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100638 - 100638

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance DOI Creative Commons
Freya M. Shearer, Marc Lipsitch

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(15)

Published: April 9, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0