Predicting the effective reproduction number of COVID-19: inference using human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness

International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 113, P. 47 - 54

Published: Oct. 9, 2021

The effective reproduction number (Rt) has been critical for assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Conventional methods using reported incidences are unable to provide timely Rt data due delay from infection reporting. Our study aimed develop a framework predicting in real time, accessible - i.e. human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness.A linear regression model predict was designed embedded renewal process. Four prefectures Japan with high first wave were selected fitting validation. Predictive performance assessed by comparing observed predicted cross-validation, testing on separate dataset two other distinct geographical settings four studied prefectures.The mean values 95% uncertainty intervals followed overall trends incidence, while predictive diminished when changed abruptly, potentially superspreading events or stringent implemented.The described can be used monitoring transmission dynamics COVID-19 ahead formal estimates, subject delay, providing essential information planning assessment countermeasures.

Language: Английский

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Sources of COVID-19-Related Information in People with Various Levels of Risk Perception and Preventive Behaviors in Taiwan: A Latent Profile Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 18(4), P. 2091 - 2091

Published: Feb. 21, 2021

The present study aimed to identify the distinct levels of risk perception and preventive behaviors during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak among people in Taiwan examine roles information sources various behavior. online survey recruited 1984 participants through a Facebook advertisement. Their self-reported perception, adopted COVID-19-related were collected. We analyzed individuals' by using latent profile analysis conducted multinomial logistic regression class membership on sources. Four classes identified, including neutrals with high behaviors, exaggerators deniers moderate low behaviors. Compared neutrals, more likely obtain COVID-19 from multiple sources, whereas less compared neutrals. Governments health professions should take variety into consideration when disseminating general public.

Language: Английский

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Documenting the knowledge of pro-environmental travel behaviour research: a visual analysis using CiteSpace

Journal of Tourism Futures, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 277 - 298

Published: Oct. 29, 2022

Purpose The purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive knowledge mapping and an in-depth analysis pro-environmental travel behaviour research better understand the global trend in field that have emerged between 2000 2021. Design/methodology/approach In study, visual 187 scholarly articles year 2021 related (PETB) presented. Using based on CiteSpace it presents current status, which contains collaboration network, co-citation emerging trends. Findings results revealed PETB topic, has increased number publications recent years. Though network scholars dispersed, some countries exert stronger network. Researchers from England, USA China worked more topic comparatively. “Pro-environmental norm” found be major concern regard PETB, theory planned (TPB) most common used by around world. Ten with highest citations are valuable articles. COVID-19, value orientation, negative spillover, carbon footprints, biospheric adolescent latest keywords past two years' literature review, all huge potential future. Originality/value This among pioneers shed light progress using bibliometric provide directions for scholars. Moreover, utilized data studies published before during pandemic also incorporated.

Language: Английский

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Can risk communication in mass media improve compliance behavior in the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from Vietnam

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 42(11/12), P. 909 - 925

Published: Sept. 20, 2021

Purpose During the COVID-19 pandemic, mass media play a vital role in containing outbreak of virus by quickly and effectively delivering risk communication messages to public. This research examines effects exposure on public understanding perception compliance with health preventive measures. Design/methodology/approach Data from Vietnam during social distancing path analysis model are used for empirical analysis. Findings finds that encourages directly indirectly through mediating roles perception. Further investigations also find both online traditional facilitates compliance. In addition, only raises perception, whereas understanding. Research limitations/implications implies should be combined increase efficiency effectiveness government work. Originality/value is among first attempts examine (both online) enhancing measures

Language: Английский

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Worry and behaviour at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak: Results from three UK surveys (the COVID-19 rapid survey of Adherence to Interventions and responses [CORSAIR] study)

Preventive Medicine Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25, P. 101686 - 101686

Published: Dec. 27, 2021

We aimed to describe worry and uptake of behaviours that prevent the spread infection (respiratory hand hygiene, distancing) in UK at start COVID-19 outbreak (January February 2020) investigate factors associated with adopting protective behaviours. Three cross-sectional online surveys adults (28 30 January, n = 2016; 3 6 February, 2002; 10 13 2020, 2006) were conducted. used logistic regressions associations between outcome measures (worry, respiratory hygiene behaviour, distancing behaviour) explanatory variables. 19.8% participants (95% CI 18.8% 20.8%) very or extremely worried about COVID-19. People from minoritized ethnic groups particularly likely feel worried. 39.9% 37.7% 42.0%) had completed one more behaviour than usual last seven days. Uptake was greater worry, perceived effectiveness individual behaviours, self-efficacy for engaging them, having heard information 13.7% 12.2% 15.2%) reduced number people they met. This effectiveness, self-efficacy. At novel infectious disease outbreaks, communications should emphasise ease which can be carried out.

Language: Английский

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