Spatial Statistics,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
58, P. 100792 - 100792
Published: Nov. 9, 2023
Since
the
emergence
of
novel
COVID-19
virus
pandemic
in
December
2019,
numerous
mathematical
models
were
published
to
assess
transmission
dynamics
disease,
predict
its
future
course,
and
evaluate
impact
different
control
measures.
The
simplest
make
basic
assumptions
that
individuals
are
perfectly
evenly
mixed
have
same
social
structures.
Such
become
problematic
for
large
developing
countries
aggregate
heterogeneous
outbreaks
local
areas.
Thus,
this
paper
proposes
a
spatial
SEIRDV
model
includes
vaccination
coverage,
vulnerability,
level
mobility,
take
into
account
spatial–temporal
clustering
pattern
cases.
conclusion
study
is
immunity,
government
interventions,
infectiousness
virulence
main
drivers
spread
COVID-19.
These
factors
should
be
taken
consideration
when
scientists,
public
policy
makers
other
stakeholders
health
community
analyse,
create
project
disease
prevention
scenarios.
has
place
may
occur
future,
allowing
inclusion
rates
manner.
Journal of Medical Virology,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
95(1)
Published: Oct. 18, 2022
In
May
2022,
monkeypox
started
to
spread
in
nonendemic
countries.
To
investigate
contact
tracing
and
self-reporting
of
the
primary
case
local
community,
a
stochastic
model
is
developed.
An
algorithm
based
on
Gillespie's
chemical
kinetics
used
quantify
number
infections,
contacts,
duration
from
arrival
detection
index
(or
until
there
are
no
more
infections).
Different
scenarios
were
set
considering
delay
behavior
infectors.
We
found
that
most
significant
factor
affecting
outbreak
size
duration.
Scenarios
with
have
an
86%
reduction
infections
(average:
5-7,
population
10
000)
contacts
27-72)
compared
non-self-reporting
(average
contacts:
27-72
197-537,
respectively).
Doubling
close
per
day
less
impactful
as
it
could
only
increase
by
45%.
Our
study
emphasizes
importance
prompt
case.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
9, P. e43836 - e43836
Published: March 1, 2023
Contact
tracing
is
a
fundamental
intervention
in
public
health.
When
systematically
applied,
it
enables
the
breaking
of
chains
transmission,
which
important
for
controlling
COVID-19
transmission.
In
theoretically
perfect
contact
tracing,
all
new
cases
should
occur
among
quarantined
individuals,
and
an
epidemic
vanish.
However,
availability
resources
influences
capacity
to
perform
tracing.
Therefore,
necessary
estimate
its
effectiveness
threshold.
We
propose
that
this
threshold
may
be
indirectly
estimated
using
ratio
arising
from
high-risk
contacts,
where
higher
ratios
indicate
better
control
and,
under
threshold,
fail
other
restrictions
become
necessary.This
study
assessed
contacts
through
potential
use
as
ancillary
pandemic
indicator.We
built
6-compartment
epidemiological
model
emulate
infection
flow
according
publicly
available
data
Portuguese
authorities.
Our
extended
usual
susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered
by
adding
compartment
Q
with
individuals
mandated
quarantine
who
could
develop
or
return
susceptible
pool
P
protected
because
vaccination.
To
dynamics,
on
SARS-CoV-2
risk
(IR),
time
until
infection,
vaccine
efficacy
were
collected.
Estimation
was
needed
reflect
timing
inoculation
booster
efficacy.
total,
2
simulations
built:
one
adjusting
presence
absence
variants
vaccination
another
maximizing
IR
individuals.
Both
based
set
100
unique
parameterizations.
The
daily
infected
(q
estimate)
calculated.
A
theoretical
defined
14-day
average
q
estimates
classification
phases
compared
population
lockdowns
Portugal.
sensitivity
analysis
performed
understand
relationship
between
different
parameter
values
obtained.An
inverse
found
both
(correlations
>0.70).
thresholds
attained
alert
phase
positive
predictive
value
>70%
have
anticipated
need
additional
measures
at
least
4
days
second
fourth
lockdowns.
Sensitivity
showed
only
dose
significantly
affected
estimates.We
demonstrated
impact
applying
decision-making.
Although
provided,
their
number
confirmed
prediction
shows
role
indirect
indicator
Spatial Statistics,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
58, P. 100792 - 100792
Published: Nov. 9, 2023
Since
the
emergence
of
novel
COVID-19
virus
pandemic
in
December
2019,
numerous
mathematical
models
were
published
to
assess
transmission
dynamics
disease,
predict
its
future
course,
and
evaluate
impact
different
control
measures.
The
simplest
make
basic
assumptions
that
individuals
are
perfectly
evenly
mixed
have
same
social
structures.
Such
become
problematic
for
large
developing
countries
aggregate
heterogeneous
outbreaks
local
areas.
Thus,
this
paper
proposes
a
spatial
SEIRDV
model
includes
vaccination
coverage,
vulnerability,
level
mobility,
take
into
account
spatial–temporal
clustering
pattern
cases.
conclusion
study
is
immunity,
government
interventions,
infectiousness
virulence
main
drivers
spread
COVID-19.
These
factors
should
be
taken
consideration
when
scientists,
public
policy
makers
other
stakeholders
health
community
analyse,
create
project
disease
prevention
scenarios.
has
place
may
occur
future,
allowing
inclusion
rates
manner.
