Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(10), P. 1237 - 1247

Published: May 22, 2023

Abstract The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them terms numbers people left outside the ‘human niche’—defined as historically highly conserved distribution relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that has already put ~9% (>600 million) niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) Reducing from 1.5 results a ~5-fold decrease exposed unprecedented heat (mean temperature ≥29 °C). lifetime emissions ~3.5 average citizens today (or ~1.2 US citizens) expose one future person by end-of-century. That comes place where half average. These highlight need for more decisive policy action limit and inequities change.

Language: Английский

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Point of Departure and Key Concepts

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 121 - 196

Published: June 22, 2023

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Language: Английский

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Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1451 - 1470

Published: Dec. 14, 2022

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond future environmental and manage these responses. To make such predictions management actions robust novel futures, we need accurately characterize organisms experience their environments the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All are thermodynamically connected through exchange of heat water at fine spatial temporal scales this can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on ecology have a long history development application, use remains limited despite enormous promise increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding training theory methods vital expand application. Our review shows implemented understand climate impacts species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, abundance. It also illustrates types outputs generated, data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations body temperature particular site time, more complex analyses distribution limits projected energy balances, accounting behavior phenology. outline challenges currently limit widespread application relating availability, training, lack common software ecosystems. discuss progress developments could allow applied many across large extents timeframes. Finally, highlight uniquely suited solve problems involve predicting interpreting responses variability extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, abiotic biotic environments.

Language: Английский

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A Global Ocean Oxygen Database and Atlas for Assessing and Predicting Deoxygenation and Ocean Health in the Open and Coastal Ocean

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Dec. 21, 2021

In this paper, we outline the need for a coordinated international effort toward building of an open-access Global Ocean Oxygen Database and ATlas (GO 2 DAT) complying with FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable). GO DAT will combine data from coastal open ocean, as measured by chemical Winkler titration method or sensors (e.g., optodes, electrodes) Eulerian Lagrangian platforms ships, moorings, profiling floats, gliders, ships opportunities, marine mammals, cabled observatories). further adopt community-agreed, fully documented metadata format consistent quality control (QC) procedure flagging (QF) system. serve to support development advanced analysis biogeochemical models improving our mapping, understanding forecasting capabilities ocean O changes deoxygenation trends. It offer opportunity develop quality-controlled synthesis products unprecedented spatial (vertical horizontal) temporal (sub-seasonal multi-decadal) resolution. These model assessment, improvement evaluation well climate health indicators. They decision-making processes associated emerging blue economy, conservation resources their ecosystem services management tools required diverse community users environmental agencies, aquaculture, fishing sectors). A better knowledge base variations improve budget, allow quantification Earth’s carbon heat budgets. With ever-increasing protect sustainably manage services, scientists harness increasing volumes already delivered expanding global observing system enable smooth incorporation much higher quantities autonomous in areas into comprehensive years come. This paper aims at engaging scientists, managers, policy makers, service users) within framework UN Decade (GOOD) program recently endorsed IOC-UNESCO. roadmap is proposed highlighting efforts needed terms human resources).

Language: Английский

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The existential risk space of climate change

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 174(1-2)

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the high end of risk, i.e., where risks become existential, poorly framed, defined, analyzed in scientific literature. This gap at odds with fundamental relevance existential for humanity, it also limits ability communities engage emerging debates narratives about dimension climate that have recently gained considerable traction. paper intends address this by scoping defining related change. We first review context change, drawing on research fields global catastrophic risks, key so-called Reasons Concern reports Intergovernmental Panel Change. consider how are framed civil society movement well what can be learned respect from COVID-19 crisis. To better frame we propose define them those threaten existence subject, subject an individual person, community, or nation state humanity. The threat their defined two levels severity: conditions (1) survival (2) basic human needs. A third level, well-being, commonly not part space risks. Our definition covers range different scales, which leads us into further six analytical dimensions: physical social processes involved, systems affected, magnitude, spatial scale, timing, probability occurrence. In conclusion, suggest clearer more precise framing such offer here facilitates analysis societal political discourse action.

Language: Английский

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Paths towards greater consensus building in experimental biology

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 225(Suppl_1)

Published: March 8, 2022

ABSTRACT In a recent editorial, the Editors-in-Chief of Journal Experimental Biology argued that consensus building, data sharing, and better integration across disciplines are needed to address urgent scientific challenges posed by climate change. We agree expand on importance cross-disciplinary transparency improve building advance change research in experimental biology. investigated reproducible practices biology through review open analysis code associated with empirical studies three debated paradigms for unrelated published leading journals comparative physiology behavioural ecology over last 10 years. Nineteen per cent had data, 3.2% code. Similarly, 12.1% we examined 3.1% Previous indicates only 50% shared datasets complete re-usable, suggesting fewer than 10% have usable data. Encouragingly, our results indicate increasing time, sharing rates some reaching 75% Rigorous is key understanding mechanisms which affects organisms, ultimately promotes evidence-based conservation policy practice. argue greater adoption science practices, particular focus FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Re-usable) code, represents much-needed paradigm shift towards improved transparency, integration, maximize contributions biologists addressing impacts environmental living organisms.

Language: Английский

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Cold-water habitats, climate refugia, and their utility for conserving salmonid fishes

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80(7), P. 1187 - 1206

Published: March 15, 2023

Anthropogenic climate change is warming global temperatures, with significant implications for salmonid fishes that depend on the availability of cold water during one or more life stages. Along southern range extents many species, and elsewhere warm temperatures are increasingly problematic, identification protection restoration habitats may serve as refugia where local populations can persist emerging an important conservation tactic. In this perspective piece, we address concept utility refugia—drawing a distinction commonly considered thermal refuges—describe technological advances enable accurate temperature mapping species distribution modeling in lotic environments, outline key uncertainties opportunities to chart constructive path forward topic will continue grow importance. Identifying not panacea conservation, but argue there tangible benefits doing so, least which options it affords thinking acting strategically within context changing century.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic shifts changes phenology, to severe impacts, mass mortalities, regime loss biodiversity. Identifying the role change these phenomena requires corroborating evidence multiple lines evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify magnitude effect attributable solely change, because seldom acts alone ecosystems. Projections future risk further complicated scenario uncertainty – is, our lack knowledge about degree which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or make ways we impact Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible reverse before end century, sea levels likely continue rise for centuries elevated millennia. Therefore, risks projected mirror impacts already observed, severity escalating cumulative emissions. Promising avenues progress beyond qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, model intercomparison projects, use broader systems. But reduce rapidly reducing emissions greenhouse gases, restoring damaged habitats, regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.

Language: Английский

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Heat hardening enhances mitochondrial potential for respiration and oxidative defence capacity in the mantle of thermally stressed Mytilus galloprovincialis

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Aug. 24, 2021

Abstract Ectotherms are exposed to a range of environmental temperatures and may face extremes beyond their upper thermal limits. Such temperature can stimulate aerobic metabolism toward its maximum, decline in substrate oxidation, parallel increase anaerobic metabolism, combined with ROS generation oxidative stress. Under these stressful conditions, marine organisms recruit several defensive strategies for maintenance survival. However, tolerance ectothermic be increased after brief exposure sub-lethal temperatures, process known as "hardening". In our study, we examined the ability M. galloprovincialis under effect elevated (24, 26 28 °C) through "hardening" process. Our results demonstrate that this heat antioxidant defense hardened mussels more efficient ETS activity when 24 °C, compared non-hardened individuals. Enhanced cell protection is reflected better adaptive mussels, thus decreased mortality. Although hardening seems promising aquacultured populations seasonal further investigation molecular cellular mechanisms regulating mussels’ resistance required.

Language: Английский

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Metabolic remodeling caused by heat hardening in the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Journal of Experimental Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 225(24)

Published: Nov. 25, 2022

Organisms can modify and increase their thermal tolerance faster more efficiently after a brief exposure to sublethal stress. This response is called 'heat hardening' as it leads the generation of phenotypes with increased heat tolerance. The aim this study was investigate impact hardening on metabolomic profile Mytilus galloprovincialis in order identify associated adjustments biochemical pathways that might benefit mussels' Thus, mussels were exposed sequentially two different phases (heat acclimation phases). To gain further insight into possible mechanisms underlying metabolic heat-hardened M. galloprovincialis, metabolomics analysis complemented by estimation mRNA expression phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK), pyruvate kinase (PK) alternative oxidase (AOX) implicated gluconeogenesis, glycolysis redox homeostasis, respectively. Heat-hardened showed evidence higher activity tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle diversification upregulated pathways, possibly mechanism ATP production extend survival under Moreover, formate taurine accumulation provide an antioxidant cytoprotective role during hypoxia Overall, responses non-heat-hardened underline upper limits set at 26°C, are accordance OCLTT concept. ability undergo rapid slow loss may be advantageous strategy for coping intermittent often extreme temperatures.

Language: Английский

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