Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest
Statistics in Medicine,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
44(6)
Published: March 13, 2025
ABSTRACT
Agent‐based
models
(ABM)
provide
an
excellent
framework
for
modeling
outbreaks
and
interventions
in
epidemiology
by
explicitly
accounting
diverse
individual
interactions
environments.
However,
these
are
usually
stochastic
highly
parametrized,
requiring
precise
calibration
predictive
performance.
When
considering
realistic
numbers
of
agents
properly
stochasticity,
this
high‐dimensional
can
be
computationally
prohibitive.
This
paper
presents
a
random
forest‐based
surrogate
technique
to
accelerate
the
evaluation
ABMs
demonstrates
its
use
calibrate
epidemiological
ABM
named
CityCOVID
via
Markov
chain
Monte
Carlo
(MCMC).
The
is
first
outlined
context
CityCOVID's
quantities
interest,
namely
hospitalizations
deaths,
exploring
dimensionality
reduction
temporal
decomposition
with
principal
component
analysis
(PCA)
sensitivity
analysis.
problem
then
presented,
samples
generated
best
match
COVID‐19
hospitalization
death
Chicago
from
March
June
2020.
These
results
compared
previous
approximate
Bayesian
(IMABC)
results,
their
performance
analyzed,
showing
improved
computation.
Language: Английский
On the Interplay Between Behavior Dynamics, Environmental Impacts, and Fairness in the Digitalized Circular Economy with Associated Business Models and Supply Chain Management
Shai Fernández,
No information about this author
Ulf Bodin,
No information about this author
Kåre Synnes
No information about this author
et al.
Sustainability,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
17(8), P. 3437 - 3437
Published: April 12, 2025
In
contemporary
research,
the
digital
transformation
of
industries
and
societies
has
increased
importance
interdisciplinary
exploration,
particularly
when
addressing
complex
challenges
faced
by
modern
organizations
social
systems.
From
perspective
digitalization,
this
literature
review
examines
intricate
interactions
between
three
key
research
domains:
behavior
dynamics,
environmental
impact,
fairness.
By
reviewing
a
wide
range
studies
methodologies,
it
reveals
new
insights,
challenges,
opportunities
that
arise
at
intersection
through
interdependencies
these
areas
within
ecosystems.
Through
structured
approach
covering
preliminary
background,
state-of-the-art
methods,
comprehensive
analysis,
document
seeks
to
reveal
synergies
divergences
among
domains.
Special
emphasis
is
placed
on
their
implications
in
digitalization
circular
economy,
business
models,
supply
chain
management
contexts
where
domains
converge
meaningful
ways.
Additionally,
an
extensive
existing
literature,
highlights
current
state
identifies
notable
gaps.
These
include
issues
such
as
ensuring
fairness
digitalized
sustainable
strategies,
understanding
role
dynamics
promoting
management,
managing
impacts
digitally
driven
models.
weaving
together
diverse
elements,
work
offers
novel
perspective,
emphasizing
collaborative
integrative
shaping
equitable
future.
Language: Английский
Exploring Complexity: A Bibliometric Analysis of Agent-Based Modeling in Finance and Banking
International Journal of Financial Studies,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
13(2), P. 65 - 65
Published: April 14, 2025
This
study
conducts
a
comprehensive
bibliometric
analysis
of
the
use
agent-based
modeling
(ABM)
in
finance
and
banking,
aiming
to
uncover
how
this
methodology
has
evolved
over
past
two
decades.
It
addresses
following
overarching
question:
How
ABM
contributed
development
financial
research
terms
trends,
key
contributors,
thematic
directions?
The
relevance
topic
is
based
on
growing
complexity
systems
limitations
traditional
models
capturing
dynamic
interactions,
contagion
effects,
systemic
risks.
Using
refined
dataset
489
articles
from
Web
Science
(2000–2024),
selected
through
multi-step
keyword
screening
process,
we
apply
techniques
using
R
Studio
(version
2024.12.1+563)
Bibliometrix
4.3.3).
reveals
stable
publication
growth,
strong
international
collaborations
(notably
Italy,
USA,
China),
core
areas
such
as
risk
management,
market
simulation,
stability,
policy
evaluation.
findings
highlight
both
well-established
emerging
fronts,
with
increasingly
used
simulate
real-world
phenomena
support
regulatory
strategies.
By
mapping
intellectual
structure
field,
paper
provides
solid
foundation
for
future
interdisciplinary
practical
insights
policymakers
seeking
innovative
tools
supervision
decision
making.
Language: Английский
The Importance of Being Many: Dynamics, Interaction and Aggregation in a Multi-Sector Economy
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Language: Английский
Artificial intelligence approaches in predicting the mechanical properties of natural fiber-reinforced concrete: A comprehensive review
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
153, P. 110933 - 110933
Published: April 22, 2025
Language: Английский
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Natural hazards and earth system sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
25(3), P. 1013 - 1035
Published: March 6, 2025
Abstract.
Consecutive
droughts,
becoming
more
likely,
produce
impacts
beyond
the
sum
of
individual
events
by
altering
catchment
hydrology
and
influencing
farmers'
adaptive
responses.
We
use
Geographical,
Environmental,
Behavioural
(GEB)
model,
a
coupled
agent-based
hydrological
expand
it
with
subjective
expected
utility
theory
(SEUT)
to
simulate
farmer
behavior
subsequent
interactions.
apply
GEB
analyze
responses
∼1.4
million
heterogeneous
farmers
in
India's
Bhima
basin
over
consecutive
droughts
compare
scenarios
without
adaptation.
In
scenarios,
can
either
do
nothing,
switch
crops,
or
dig
wells,
based
on
each
action's
utility.
Our
analysis
examines
how
these
adaptations
affect
profits,
yields,
groundwater
levels,
considering,
e.g.,
farm
size,
risk
aversion,
drought
perception.
Results
indicate
that
decrease
vulnerability
impact
after
one
(6
times
yield
loss
reduction)
but
increase
them
periods
due
switching
water-intensive
crops
homogeneous
cultivation
(+15
%
decline
income).
Moreover,
patterns,
vulnerability,
vary
spatiotemporally
between
individuals.
Lastly,
ecological
social
shocks
coincide
plummet
incomes.
recommend
alternative
additional
wells
mitigate
emphasize
importance
socio-hydrological
models
(ABMs)
for
policy
testing.
Language: Английский
Agent-based Simulation of the Pharmaceutical Parallel Trade Market: A Case Study
Procedia Computer Science,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
220, P. 495 - 502
Published: Jan. 1, 2023
The
pharmaceutical
parallel
trade
market
emerged
as
a
consequence
of
the
European
single
for
pharmaceuticals,
involving
multiple
players
that
partake
in
different
types
competitions.
These
competitions
not
only
affect
players'
profit,
but
also
have
significant
impact
on
people's
healthcare
access
and
welfare.
Hence,
modeling
provides
way
to
study
offer
valuable
decision
support
authorities,
people,
involved
market.
Agent-based
offers
computational
methodology
macro-level
outcomes
emerging
from
individual
behaviors
while
offering
relax
conventional
assumptions
standard
mathematical
economic
models.
Here,
we
demonstrate
use
case
an
agent-based
model
investigate
its
abilities
by
analyzing
various
scenarios.
Language: Английский