Optimal Control Prevents Itself from Eradicating Stochastic Disease Epidemics DOI Creative Commons
Rachel Russell, Nik J. Cunniffe

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract The resources available for managing disease epidemics – whether in animals, plants or humans are limited by a range of practical and financial constraints. This motivates study where these should be allocated to maximise their impact. Optimal control has been widely explored optimising management epidemics. most common approach assumes deterministic, continuous model based on differential equations approximate the epidemic dynamics. However, real systems stochastic so outcomes possible any given situation choice control. deterministic models also known poor approximations cases number infected hosts is low either globally within subset population highly relevant context Hence, this work explores effectiveness strategies derived using optimal theory when applied more realistic, form model. We demonstrate that solutions not eradicated close eradication. potential means case will reliably eradicate disease, even it possible. For effective eradication, rate must higher than as would predict. Using Model Predictive Control, which optimisation performed repeatedly system evolves correct deviations from predictions, improves performance but does fix underlying issue level calculated at each repeated still insufficient. To this, we present several very simple heuristics identify sites can outperform MPC budget sufficient eradication Our illustration uses examples simulation spatial spread plant similar issues expected infection driven zero targeted remain below some critical value.

Language: Английский

Predicting the effect of landscape structure on epidemic invasion using an analytical estimate for infection rate DOI Creative Commons
Yevhen F. Suprunenko, Stephen J. Cornell, Christopher A. Gilligan

et al.

Royal Society Open Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

The influence of landscape structure on epidemic invasion agricultural crops is often underestimated in the construction and analysis epidemiological models. Computer simulations individual-based models (IBMs) are widely used to characterize disease spread under different management scenarios but can be slow exploring large numbers configurations. Here, we address problem finding an analytical measure impact spatial a crop plant pathogens. We explore potential using approximation for rate, r , at which susceptible fields become infected start predict effect that host will have epidemic. demonstrate validity this approach two models: (i) general IBM pathogen through abstract landscape; (ii) real-life example virus spreading cassava landscape. Finally, based estimate identify structures deceleration invading pathogen.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union DOI Creative Commons
John Ellis, Elena Lázaro, Beatriz Duarte

et al.

Plants People Planet, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 24, 2025

Societal Impact Statement Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although production in Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing mathematical model spread Spain, we tested surveillance control strategies before any future HLB entry EU. We found while some might be maintained by roguing, this requires extensive significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing psyllids (which pathogen) for DNA. Our work highlights key importance early detection (including asymptomatic infection) vector management. Summary (HLB; greening) most damaging worldwide. While States have been affected decades, not reported European Union (EU). However, vector, African psyllid, already Portugal Spain. In 2023, major Asian was first Cyprus. develop landscape‐scale, epidemiological model, accounting heterogeneous cultivation dispersal, as well climate use our to predict dynamics an epidemic vectored psyllid high‐density areas assessing strategies. Without management, large infected within 10–20 years. Even with visual surveillance, will widespread on detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection roguing following particularly if coupled intensive insecticide use, could sustain citriculture decade or more, albeit reduced production. effective may require application rates and/or active substances no longer authorised Strategies targeting infection more successful. Detection bacteriliferous vectors—sometimes possible long plants show symptoms—could reduce lags management commences. If HLB‐positive vectors were followed sprays, greatly improve outcomes. modelling component preparedness pathogen invasion is, at least somewhat, predictable advance.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Belief in neighbor behavior and confidence in scientific information as barriers to cooperative disease control DOI Creative Commons

Arlene Flowers,

Jonathan D. Kaplan,

Ajay S. Singh

et al.

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 11, 2025

Abstract Recent public health events have brought to the forefront challenges of incorporating collective action behaviors and information seeking processing motivate personal protections an environmental risk. The economic social costs large‐scale spread disease when there is no cure for disease, only preventative measures implemented in coordination cooperation with others, will be effective at addressing problem. To better understand these agricultural context, we create agent‐based model (ABM) coupling ecological, epidemiological, factors simulate Huanglongbing (HLB) California. ABM used evaluate how participation through coordinated area‐wide insecticide spraying influenced by perception other growers' confidence scientific about disease. We find a grower's has little influence on infection reaches them but depends primarily action. discover that over time more growers cooperate spraying, after sufficiently spread, some stop cooperating. Moreover, as beliefs becomes stronger, less, leading greater HLB spread. observe increased lowers are motivated expected cumulative profits. As such, successful strategy combat incurable infectious like HLB, problems, general, requires careful consideration perceptions their neighbors' behavior trust information.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Citrus phytochemicals as potential therapeutics against asiatic citrus psyllid and Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus: targeting the tripartite interaction DOI
Muhammad Awais, Muhammad Arif Ali,

Mohsin Javed

et al.

Journal of Plant Pathology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Assessing delimiting strategies to identify the infested zones of quarantine plant pests and diseases DOI Creative Commons

Jun Min Joshua Koh,

Nik J. Cunniffe, Stephen Parnell

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 15, 2025

Following the discovery of a quarantine plant pest or disease, delimitation is urgently conducted to define boundaries infested area, typically through surveys that detect presence absence pest. Swift and accurate crucial after pathogen enters new region for containment eradication. Delimiting an area too small allows spread uncontrollably, while delimited areas are large can lead excessive economic costs, making eradication cost-prohibitive. Despite its significance, there lack comprehensive reviews on delimiting strategies their effectiveness in managing pests; many current practices ad-hoc not scientifically based. In this study, we used individual-based model simulate Huanglongbing (citrus greening), priority EU pest, evaluated three across various host distribution landscapes. We found adaptive strategy was most effective, especially when tailored polycyclic nature This underscored need specific approaches based epidemiological characteristics target

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model DOI Creative Commons
Philipe Guilherme Corcino Souza, Owusu Fordjour Aidoo,

Priscila Kelly Barroso Farnezi

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2023

Abstract The phloem-limited bacteria, “ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” and Ca . L. americanus”, are the causal pathogens responsible for Huanglongbing (HLB). Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is principal vector of these Liberibacter” species. Though Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) has been useful in biological control programmes against D. , information on its global distribution remains vague. Using Climate Change Experiment (CLIMEX) model, potential T. under 2050s, 2070s, 2090s Special Report Emissions Scenarios A1B A2 was defined globally. results showed that habitat suitability covered Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, Americas. model predicted climate suitable areas beyond presently known native non-native areas. new locations to have included parts Europe Oceania. Under different change scenarios, contraction high (EI > 30) from 2050s 2090s. Nevertheless, maps created using CLIMEX may be helpful search release regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: modelling citrus huanglongbingin the European Union DOI Creative Commons
John Ellis, Elena Lázaro, Beatriz Duarte

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 6, 2024

Abstract Huánglóngbíng (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of worldwide. While production in USA and Brazil have been affected for decades, HLB has not detected European Union (EU). However, psyllid vectors already invaded spread Portugal Spain, 2023 species known to vector Americas was first reported within EU. We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting heterogeneous cultivation dispersal, as well climate management. use our model predict dynamics following introduction into high-density areas assessing detection control strategies. Even with significant visual surveillance, we any epidemic will be widespread on detection, eradication unlikely. Introducing increased inspection roguing particularly if coupled intensive insecticide use, could potentially sustain some time. this may require chemical application rates that are permissible Disease management strategies targeting asymptomatic infection likely lead more successful outcomes. Our work highlights modelling key component developing preparedness pathogen invasion is, at least somewhat, predictable advance.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045 DOI Creative Commons
Waldemar Mercado, Katherine Guadalupe, Karla Vega Alegre

et al.

Scientia Agropecuaria, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 419 - 434

Published: Nov. 20, 2023

Huanglongbing (HLB) is a citrus disease known for causing significant production losses, and its potential introduction into Peru looms on the horizon. The aim of this study was to assess economic losses within Central Jungle's orange chain, specifically in Region Junín. This assessment involved simulating spread HLB under prospective scenarios spanning from 2026 2045, aiming estimate cost-benefit preventing these through implementation national phytosanitary program (PNF). methodology employed comprised administering questionnaires local growers estimating across three scenarios. first scenario assumed baseline trend without presence, while second considered an epidemiological situation with but PNF. third factored varying degrees adoption among PNF-affiliated growers. findings highlight several risk factors contributing model reveals that can swiftly render young trees unproductive. Cumulatively, 2045 could reach staggering US$ 371,146 thousand if no intervention takes place. However, figure be significantly reduced 44,890 100% embrace Such public policy measures would not only prevent also generate substantial social benefits. These underscore stark negative impacts inflict chain. PNF proves critical intervention, preserving jobs, safeguarding related activities. Without timely at stake agribusiness sector unsustainable.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Optimal Control Prevents Itself from Eradicating Stochastic Disease Epidemics DOI Creative Commons
Rachel Russell, Nik J. Cunniffe

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract The resources available for managing disease epidemics – whether in animals, plants or humans are limited by a range of practical and financial constraints. This motivates study where these should be allocated to maximise their impact. Optimal control has been widely explored optimising management epidemics. most common approach assumes deterministic, continuous model based on differential equations approximate the epidemic dynamics. However, real systems stochastic so outcomes possible any given situation choice control. deterministic models also known poor approximations cases number infected hosts is low either globally within subset population highly relevant context Hence, this work explores effectiveness strategies derived using optimal theory when applied more realistic, form model. We demonstrate that solutions not eradicated close eradication. potential means case will reliably eradicate disease, even it possible. For effective eradication, rate must higher than as would predict. Using Model Predictive Control, which optimisation performed repeatedly system evolves correct deviations from predictions, improves performance but does fix underlying issue level calculated at each repeated still insufficient. To this, we present several very simple heuristics identify sites can outperform MPC budget sufficient eradication Our illustration uses examples simulation spatial spread plant similar issues expected infection driven zero targeted remain below some critical value.

Language: Английский

Citations

0