Advancing Global Ecological Modeling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Marta Coll, Jeroen Steenbeek, María Grazia Pennino

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Oct. 16, 2020

Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, natural resources better understand how marine ecosystems provided services humans are likely explore alternative pathways options. We present an updated version EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers top predators. Advancements include enhanced ability reproduce by linking species productivity, distributions, trophic interactions worldwide fisheries. The platform used simulate past future scenarios change, where we quantify configurations ecological model, responses climate-change scenarios, additional fishing. Climate-change obtained two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M IPSL-CMA5-LR) contrasting emission (RCPs 2.6 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) (2006-2100) periods. Standardized indicators biomasses selected groups compare simulations. Results show trajectories sensitive EcoOcean, yield moderate differences when looking at larger groups. Ecological also environmental drivers ESM outputs RCPs, spatial variability more severe changes IPSL RCP 8.5 used. Under non-fishing configuration, organisms decreasing trends, while smaller mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies negative effects predicted again stronger under 8.5, which results in biomass declines already losing dampened positive those increasing. Several win become losers combined impacts, only few (small benthopelagic fish cephalopods) projected cumulative impacts. v2 can contribute quantification impact assessments multiple stressors plausible ocean-based solutions prevent, mitigate adapt change.

Language: Английский

The biomass distribution on Earth DOI Creative Commons
Yinon M. Bar-On, Rob Phillips, Ron Milo

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 115(25), P. 6506 - 6511

Published: May 21, 2018

Significance The composition of the biosphere is a fundamental question in biology, yet global quantitative account biomass each taxon still lacking. We assemble census all kingdoms life. This analysis provides holistic view and allows us to observe broad patterns over taxonomic categories, geographic locations, trophic modes.

Language: Английский

Citations

3044
Aquatic food security: insights into challenges and solutions from an analysis of interactions between fisheries, aquaculture, food safety, human health, fish and human welfare, economy and environment DOI Creative Commons
Simon Jennings, Grant D. Stentiford,

Ana Leocádio

et al.

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 17(4), P. 893 - 938

Published: Feb. 11, 2016

Abstract Fisheries and aquaculture production, imports, exports equitability of distribution determine the supply aquatic food to people. Aquatic security is achieved when a sufficient, safe, sustainable, shockproof sound: meet needs preferences people; provide nutritional benefit while posing minimal health risks; now for future generations; shock‐proof, resilience shocks in production systems chains; sound, legal ethical standards welfare animals, people environment. Here, we present an integrated assessment these elements system United Kingdom, linked dynamic global networks producers, processors markets. Our addresses sufficiency from aquaculture, fisheries trade; safety given biological, chemical radiation hazards; social, economic environmental sustainability shocks; fish, environment; authenticity food. Conventionally, aspects are not assessed collectively, so information supporting our widely dispersed. reveals trade‐offs challenges that easily overlooked sectoral analyses fisheries, health, medicine, human fish welfare, We highlight potential benefits integrated, systematic ongoing process assess predict impacts change on demand.

Language: Английский

Citations

329
Seabirds enhance coral reef productivity and functioning in the absence of invasive rats DOI
Nicholas A. J. Graham, Shaun K. Wilson, Peter Carr

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 559(7713), P. 250 - 253

Published: July 1, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

286
Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity DOI Open Access
Charles A. Stock, Jasmin G. John, Ryan R. Rykaczewski

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 114(8)

Published: Jan. 23, 2017

Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed ecosystems far exceed net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast an energetically consistent manner. To test hypothesis, we enlist global data include previously neglected contributions small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of effort, plankton web flux estimates prototype high-resolution earth system model (ESM). After removing small number lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional per unit area be explained (r = 0.79) with energy-based (i) considers dynamic pathways connecting (ii) depresses efficiencies tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated benthic-predominant systems. Model are generally within factor 2 values spanning two orders magnitude. Climate change projections show same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional contemporary ocean amplify trends, producing changes may 50% some regions by end 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing resolve these trophodynamic significantly underestimate fisheries trends hinder adaptation climate change.

Language: Английский

Citations

284
Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture DOI
Julia L. Blanchard, Reg Watson, Elizabeth A. Fulton

et al.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 1(9), P. 1240 - 1249

Published: Aug. 22, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

243
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Derek P. Tittensor, Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(11), P. 973 - 981

Published: Oct. 21, 2021

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global animal biomass and unevenly distributed fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite ecosystem models from the Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs Phase 6 Coupled (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, new ensemble simulations show a greater decline mean under both strong-mitigation high-emissions scenarios due elevated warming, despite uncertainty net primary production scenario. Regional shifts direction changes highlight continued urgent need reduce responses help support adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

Citations

225
From Bacteria to Whales: Using Functional Size Spectra to Model Marine Ecosystems DOI
Julia L. Blanchard, Ryan F. Heneghan, Jason D. Everett

et al.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 32(3), P. 174 - 186

Published: Jan. 19, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

203
Planetary boundaries for a blue planet DOI
Kirsty L. Nash, Christopher Cvitanovic, Elizabeth A. Fulton

et al.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 1(11), P. 1625 - 1634

Published: Oct. 11, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

198
Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins DOI
Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Derek P. Tittensor, Julia L. Blanchard

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 459 - 472

Published: Nov. 8, 2018

Abstract Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter ecosystem structure function with associated socio‐economic services, fisheries, fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these may play out among basins over the 21st century remains unclear, most projections coming from single models that do not adequately capture range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six within Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) analyze responses animal biomass in all major contrasting climate scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total declined an ensemble mean 15%–30% (±12%–17%) North South Atlantic Pacific, Indian Ocean 2100, whereas polar experienced 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty disagreement were greatest Arctic smallest Pacific Ocean. Projected reduced under low (RCP2.6) scenario. RCP2.6 RCP8.5, highly correlated net production negatively projected sea surface temperature increases across except oceans. was shift as concentrated different size‐classes highlight mitigation measures could moderate reducing declines Atlantic, basins. The individual emphasizes importance approach assessing uncertainty future change.

Language: Английский

Citations

185
From siphonophores to deep scattering layers: uncertainty ranges for the estimation of global mesopelagic fish biomass DOI Creative Commons
Roland Proud, Nils Olav Handegard, Rudy Kloser

et al.

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 76(3), P. 718 - 733

Published: March 9, 2018

Abstract The mesopelagic community is important for downward oceanic carbon transportation and a potential food source humans. Estimates of global fish biomass vary substantially (between 1 20 Gt). Here, we develop model using daytime 38 kHz acoustic backscatter from deep scattering layers. Model arises predominantly siphonophores but the relative proportions fish, several parameters in model, are uncertain. We use simulations to estimate variance determined across three different scenarios; S1, where all have gas-filled swimbladders, S2 S3, proportion do not. Our estimates ranged 1.8 16 Gt (25–75% quartile ranges), median values S1 S3 were 3.8, 4.6, 8.3 Gt, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that any given quantity backscatter, swimbladder volume, its size distribution aspect ratio cause most variation (i.e. lead greatest uncertainty) estimate. Determination these should be prioritized future studies, as determining due siphonophores.

Language: Английский

Citations

174