Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States DOI Creative Commons
Abhishek Mallela, Yen Ting Lin, William S. Hlavacek

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 45, P. 100718 - 100718

Published: Sept. 22, 2023

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R0. This number depends on both pathogen and properties. On basis compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R0 values for 280 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in United States (US), which account 95% US living urban 82% total population. We focused MSA populations after finding these were more uniformly impacted COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum posteriori (MAP) estimates range from 1.9 7.7 quantify relative susceptibilities regional spread respiratory diseases. Initial varied over 4-fold across States.

Language: Английский

Big data- and artificial intelligence-based hot-spot analysis of COVID-19: Gauteng, South Africa, as a case study DOI Creative Commons
Benjamin Lieberman, Jude Dzevela Kong,

Roy Gusinow

et al.

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(1)

Published: Jan. 26, 2023

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has developed into a pandemic. Data-driven techniques can be used to inform and guide public health decision- policy-makers. In generalizing the spread of virus over large area, such as province, it must assumed that transmission occurs stochastic process. It is therefore very difficult for policy decision makers understand visualize location specific dynamics on more granular level. A primary concern exposing local hot-spots, in order implement non-pharmaceutical interventions. hot-spot defined an area experiencing exponential growth relative generalised This paper uses first second waves COVID-19 epidemic Gauteng Province, South Africa, case study. study aims provide data-driven methodology comprehensive expose within given area. unsupervised Gaussian Mixture model cluster cases at desired granularity. combined with epidemiological analysis quantify each cluster’s severity, progression whether hot-spot.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Social vulnerability and COVID-19 in Maringá, Brazil DOI Open Access
Matheus Pereira Libório, Oséias da Silva Martinuci, Patrícia Bernardes

et al.

Spatial Information Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(1), P. 51 - 59

Published: Sept. 5, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Analyzing the GHSI puzzle of whether highly developed countries fared worse in COVID-19 DOI Creative Commons
Sofija Marković, Igor Salom, Andjela Rodic

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Oct. 21, 2022

Abstract Global Health Security Index (GHSI) categories are formulated to assess the capacity of world countries deal with infectious disease risks. Thus, higher values these indices were expected translate lower COVID-19 severity. However, it turned out be opposite, surprisingly suggesting that estimated country preparedness epidemics may lead mortality. To address this puzzle, we: (i) use a model-derived measure severity; (ii) employ range statistical learning approaches, including non-parametric machine methods; (iii) consider overall excess mortality, in addition official fatality counts. Our results suggest puzzle is, large extent, an artifact oversimplified data analysis and consequence misclassified deaths, combined median age population earlier onset high GHSI scores.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Spatial priority for COVID-19 vaccine rollout against limited supply DOI Creative Commons
Showmitra Kumar Sarkar, Md. Manjur Morshed

Heliyon, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(11), P. e08419 - e08419

Published: Nov. 1, 2021

The COVID-19 vaccines are limited in supply which requires vaccination by priority. This study proposes a spatial priority-based vaccine rollout strategy for Bangladesh. Demographic, economic and vulnerability, connectivity – these four types of factors considered identifying the priority is calculated mapped using GIS-based analytic hierarchy process. Our findings suggest that both demographic keys to rollout. Secondly, an essential component defining due transmissibility COVID-19. A total 12 out 64 districts were found high-priority followed 22 medium-priorities proposed no means suggests ending mass descending age groups but alternative against supply. this might help curb down transmission keep economy moving. inclusion granular data contextual can significantly improve identification have wider applications other infectious transmittable diseases beyond.

Language: Английский

Citations

12
Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States DOI Creative Commons
Abhishek Mallela, Yen Ting Lin, William S. Hlavacek

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 45, P. 100718 - 100718

Published: Sept. 22, 2023

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R0. This number depends on both pathogen and properties. On basis compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R0 values for 280 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in United States (US), which account 95% US living urban 82% total population. We focused MSA populations after finding these were more uniformly impacted COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum posteriori (MAP) estimates range from 1.9 7.7 quantify relative susceptibilities regional spread respiratory diseases. Initial varied over 4-fold across States.

Language: Английский

Citations

4