Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19

Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 29(1), P. 1 - 20

Published: April 27, 2020

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is challenging the world. With no vaccine and limited medical capacity to treat disease, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are main strategy contain pandemic. Unprecedented global travel restrictions stay-at-home orders causing most severe disruption of economy since World War II. international bans affecting over 90% world population wide-spread on public gatherings community mobility, tourism largely ceased in March 2020. Early evidence impacts air travel, cruises, accommodations have been devastating. While highly uncertain, early projections from UNWTO for 2020 suggest arrivals could decline by 20 30% relative 2019. Tourism especially susceptible measures counteract pandemics because restricted mobility social distancing. paper compares COVID-19 previous epidemic/pandemics other types crises explores how pandemic may change society, economy, tourism. It discusses why an analogue ongoing climate crisis, there a need question volume growth model advocated UNWTO, ICAO, CLIA, WTTC organizations.

Language: Английский

---

Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Annals of Internal Medicine, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 173(5), P. 362 - 367

Published: June 3, 2020

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly throughout the world since first cases of disease 2019 (COVID-19) were observed in December Wuhan, China. It been suspected that infected persons who remain asymptomatic play a significant role ongoing pandemic, but their relative number and effect have uncertain. The authors sought to review synthesize available evidence on SARS-CoV-2 infection. Asymptomatic seem account for approximately 40% 45% infections, they can transmit virus others an extended period, perhaps longer than 14 days. infection may be associated with subclinical lung abnormalities, as detected by computed tomography. Because high risk silent persons, it is imperative testing programs include those without symptoms. To supplement conventional diagnostic testing, which constrained capacity, cost, its one-off nature, innovative tactics public health surveillance, such crowdsourcing digital wearable data monitoring sewage sludge, might helpful.

Language: Английский

---

Coronavirus Disease 2019–COVID-19

Clinical Microbiology Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 33(4)

Published: June 23, 2020

In recent decades, several new diseases have emerged in different geographical areas, with pathogens including Ebola virus, Zika Nipah and coronaviruses (CoVs). Recently, a type of viral infection Wuhan City, China, initial genomic sequencing data this virus do not match previously sequenced CoVs, suggesting novel CoV strain (2019-nCoV), which has now been termed severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is suspected to originate from an animal host (zoonotic origin) followed by human-to-human transmission, the possibility other routes should be ruled out.

Language: Английский

---

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) by the numbers

eLife, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: March 31, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is a harsh reminder of the fact that, whether in single human host or wave infection across continents, viral dynamics often story about numbers. In this article we provide one-stop, curated graphical source for key numbers (based mostly on peer-reviewed literature) SARS-CoV-2 virus that responsible pandemic. discussion framed around two broad themes: i) biology itself; ii) characteristics host.

Language: Английский

---

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 5, P. 293 - 308

Published: Jan. 1, 2020

Face mask use by the general public for limiting spread of COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and potential this intervention not well understood. We develop a compartmental model assessing community-wide impact general, asymptomatic public, portion which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to dynamics in US states New York Washington, suggest that broad adoption even relatively ineffective face masks meaningfully reduce community transmission decrease peak hospitalizations deaths. Moreover, decreases effective rate nearly linear proportion product effectiveness (as fraction potentially infectious contacts blocked) coverage population), while on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) highly nonlinear, indicating could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, are found useful respect both preventing illness healthy persons transmission. Hypothetical scenarios, Washington state, immediate near universal (80%) moderately (50%) prevent order 17-45% projected deaths over two months York, decreasing daily death 34-58%, absent changes epidemic dynamics. Even very weak (20% effective) can still if underlying low or decreasing: In where baseline much less intense, 80% such mortality 24-65% (and 15-69%), compared 2-9% reduction (peak 9-18%). Our results high value curtailing burden pandemic. The benefits likely greatest when used conjunction practices (such as social-distancing), (nation-wide) compliance high.

Language: Английский

---

Adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 in BALB/c mice for testing vaccine efficacy

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 369(6511), P. 1603 - 1607

Published: July 30, 2020

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 in mice Among the research tools necessary to develop medical interventions treat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, high on list are informative animal models with which study viral pathogenesis. Gu et al. developed a mouse model strain was infectious and could cause an inflammatory response moderate pneumonia. Adaptation of this appeared be dependent critical amino acid change, Asn 501 Tyr (N501Y), within receptor-binding domain spike protein. The new used neutralizing antibodies vaccine candidate against virus. Science , issue p. 1603

Language: Английский

---

Neutralizing Antibodies Correlate with Protection from SARS-CoV-2 in Humans during a Fishery Vessel Outbreak with a High Attack Rate

Journal of Clinical Microbiology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 58(11)

Published: Aug. 24, 2020

The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 would be greatly facilitated by the identification immunological correlates protection in humans. However, to date, studies on protective immunity have been performed only animal models and not established Here, we describe an outbreak a fishing vessel associated with high attack rate. Predeparture serological viral reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) testing along repeat after return shore was available for 120 122 persons board over median follow-up 32.

Language: Английский

---

Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence, prevention and control

Environment International, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 144, P. 106039 - 106039

Published: Aug. 7, 2020

As public health teams respond to the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), containment and understanding modes severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is utmost importance for policy making. During this time, governmental agencies have been instructing community on handwashing physical distancing measures. However, there no agreement role aerosol SARS-CoV-2. To end, we aimed review evidence Several studies support that SARS-CoV-2 plausible, plausibility score (weight combined evidence) 8 out 9. Precautionary control strategies should consider effective mitigation

Language: Английский

---

A guideline to limit indoor airborne transmission of COVID-19

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(17)

Published: April 13, 2021

The current revival of the American economy is being predicated on social distancing, specifically Six-Foot Rule, a guideline that offers little protection from pathogen-bearing aerosol droplets sufficiently small to be continuously mixed through an indoor space. importance airborne transmission COVID-19 now widely recognized. While tools for risk assessment have recently been developed, no safety has proposed protect against it. We here build models disease in order derive would impose upper bound "cumulative exposure time," product number occupants and their time enclosed demonstrate how this depends rates ventilation air filtration, dimensions room, breathing rate, respiratory activity face mask use its occupants, infectiousness aerosols. By synthesizing available data best-characterized spreading events with drop size distributions, we estimate infectious dose 10 aerosol-borne virions. new virus (severe acute syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) thus inferred magnitude more than forerunner (SARS-CoV), consistent pandemic status achieved by COVID-19. Case studies are presented classrooms nursing homes, spreadsheet online app provided facilitate our guideline. Implications contact tracing quarantining considered, appropriate caveats enumerated. Particular consideration given jets, which may substantially elevate when masks not worn.

Language: Английский

---

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 11, 2020

Abstract Face mask use by the general public for limiting spread of COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and potential this intervention not well understood. We develop a compartmental model assessing community-wide impact general, asymptomatic public, portion which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to dynamics in US states New York Washington, suggest that broad adoption even relatively ineffective face masks meaningfully reduce community transmission decrease peak hospitalizations deaths. Moreover, decreases effective rate nearly linear proportion product effectiveness (as fraction potentially infectious contacts blocked) coverage population), while on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) highly nonlinear, indicating could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, are found useful respect both preventing illness healthy persons transmission. Hypothetical scenarios, Washington state, immediate near universal (80%) moderately (50%) prevent order 17–45% projected deaths over two months York, decreasing daily death 34–58%, absent changes epidemic dynamics. Even very weak (20% effective) can still if underlying low or decreasing: In where baseline much less intense, 80% such mortality 24–65% (and 15–69%), compared 2–9% reduction (peak 9–18%). Our results high value curtailing burden pandemic. The benefits likely greatest when used conjunction practices (such as social-distancing), (nation-wide) compliance high.

Language: Английский

---