Multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values in the Chishui River Basin of Guizhou Province, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 163, P. 112078 - 112078

Published: April 29, 2024

Changes in land-use patterns are the main driving factors of ecosystem service values (ESVs). The quantitative evaluation ESVs is significant for sustainable development ecologically fragile areas. In this study, Chishui River Basin (CRB) China was selected as study region, and an intensity map (IM) used to analyze transformation land use/land cover (LULC). modified equivalent coefficient value method evaluate based on 2000, 2010, 2020 use datasets. spatial temporal distributions ESV its response changes LULC were analyzed using Getis-Ord Gi* statistical Spearman's rank correlation analysis. Moreover, over next 30 years four scenarios simulated Markov-PLUS model. following results obtained: 1) farmland forestland dominant categories, that pattern dramatically changed area; 2) total CRB decreased significantly from 23.21 billion yuan 2000 22.29 2020; 3) ecological conservation scenario promoted ESV, town more conducive urbanization process. Therefore, although showed a decreasing slowly increasing trend context series restoration measures, scientific protection policies must be continuously implemented achieve harmony between improvement development. Our provide important information making decisions facilitating protected basins.

Language: Английский

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Multiscale territorial spatial conflict evolution and driving mechanism in China's land border

Habitat International, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156, P. 103302 - 103302

Published: Jan. 27, 2025

Language: Английский

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Towards ecological security: Two-thirds of China’s ecoregions experienced a decline in habitat quality from 1992 to 2020

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 172, P. 113275 - 113275

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Spatial Configuration and Layout Optimization of the Ecological Networks in a High-Population-Density Urban Agglomeration: A Case Study of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 768 - 768

Published: April 3, 2025

The construction of ecological networks and the optimization spatial layouts are essential for maintaining regional security promoting sustainable development, especially in high-population-density urban agglomerations. This study employs Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) as a case to establish an network through quantitative assessments land use/cover change (LUCC) ecosystem service value (ESV), utilizing morphological pattern analysis (MSPA) methods tools such Linkage Mapper further optimize layouts. findings reveal following: (1) use structure within CPUA experienced notable shifts. magnitude changes ranked follows: > cultivated grassland waterbody forest bare land. (2) southwestern mountainous hilly regions, designated high ESV areas, primarily rely on water conservation soil retention functions. In contrast, central western characterized by low ESVs, dominated land, significantly influenced urbanization agricultural activities. (3) An system was developed based region’s natural geographic features, incorporating 20 sources covering approximately 21,434.70 km2, 36 corridors with combined length around 2795.19 km. extends north–south direction parts CPUA. (4) Considering optimized layout “five belts, six zones, multiple clusters, corridors” proposed, along differentiated restoration strategies tailored address specific issues different regions. aims harmonize protection economic providing scientific foundation valuable reference planning policies.

Language: Английский

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Patterns of change, driving forces and future simulation of LULC in the Fuxian Lake Basin based on the IM-RF-Markov-PLUS framework

Sustainable Futures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8, P. 100289 - 100289

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Studying land use and cover (LULC) patterns, identifying driving forces, simulating future scenarios are vital for grasping the complex connection between human actions environment. This helps in shaping sustainable management strategies preparing impacts of climate change. However, there is a necessity comprehensive system modeling framework that can accurately capture spatial temporal changes LULC, analyze mechanisms, provide an integrated analysis simulations. In this paper, IM-RF-Markov-PLUS developed, focusing on Fuxian Lake Basin (FLB) as study area. The aims to achieve accurate prediction LULC by combining microscopic change trend contribution macroscopic forces. results show that: (1) explore patterns mechanisms FLB, predict FLB. Compared with PLUS model, its accuracy improved 2%. (2) IM reveals transformation FLB both general specific. Although area grassland, buildings, roads structures converted desert bare minimal, it shows relatively tendentious specific characteristics. (3) Different types significantly affected factors, expansion LULCs constrained major factors. distance lake has most significant impact distribution garden land, while primary road greatest forestland. (4) Under different scenarios, heterogeneity obvious. 2035, under baseline economic development cultivated will decrease, other increase. protection scenario, protected, increase 5.85%. ecological land. largest forestland, which increases total 3.46%. scenario presents viable approach ensuring paper may serve reliable foundation implementing offer guidance crafting regulations at regional level.

Language: Английский

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Using dynamic Bayesian belief networks to infer the effects of climate change and human activities on changes in regional ecosystem services

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 170, P. 113023 - 113023

Published: Dec. 26, 2024

Language: Английский

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Temporal—Spatial Changes in Vegetation Coverage under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 661 - 661

Published: Jan. 11, 2024

Analyzing vegetation cover provides a basis for detecting ecological and environmental health in urban areas. We analyzed the temporal spatial changes using NDVI data from central Yunnan agglomeration (CYUA). The dimidiate pixel model (DPM) intensity analysis were used to study at three levels: time intervals, category, transition. Analysis of series 1990–2020 Theil–Sen Median with Mann–Kendal test identified overall trends. Geodetector explored relationship between natural human factors change. CYUA’s gradually decreases west east south north, middle–high high occupying over 55%. During 1990–2020, significant improvement was observed north regions, an increase 22.49%. anthropogenic core area showed severe degradation nearly 1.56% coverage. transformation middle coverage dominant 1990–2010 but replaced by 2010–2020. Meanwhile, became most prominent gains target, conversion system tendency exceed average absolute number relative intensity. Spatial differences mostly affected land (q = 0.4726, p < 0.001), influential topographic factor slope 0.1491, 0.001). impact activities has increased 16%, double that 2000. improved more than it degraded, required site-specific forest management due activities.

Language: Английский

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Identification and Trend Analysis of Ecological Security Pattern in Mudanjiang City Based on MSPA-MCR-PLUS Model

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(22), P. 9690 - 9690

Published: Nov. 7, 2024

The ecological security pattern plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem health and ensuring security. establishment of the Mudanjiang City can provide scientific basis effective support for stabilizing environment, mitigating regional human–land conflicts, rational land- use planning. This paper utilizes theory constructing an using source-resistance plane-corridor node to grade importance source areas based on connectivity index. It combines morphological spatial analysis PLUS model generate identify present value 2022 City, as well predict eight land types seven landscape under three development scenarios by 2032. A transfer matrix transfer-intensity map are introduced explore structural characteristics transfer, while four fragmentation indexes combined with principal component coefficient variation method form comprehensive different classes. Finally, 2022, is developed that establishes logical connections between land-use structure, types, transformation mechanism, sources. results follows: (1) In 23 areas, 65 corridors, 66 nodes were extracted. overall shows “U” shape openings northeast. (2) cumulative weight economic social factors resistance surface reached 51.36%. (3) response degree forest primary tertiary was highly significant, R values reaching 0.9675 −0.8746, respectively. comparative study comprehensively showed best scenario sustainable future priority scenario, where area smallest proportion but strongest disturbance fluctuation becomes key affecting City.

Language: Английский

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Construction and spatial optimization of ecological network in Shaanxi Province based on LUCC and its ESV response

资源科学, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 45(7), P. 1380 - 1395

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

的范式 [10,11] ， 科学确定生态源地、

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The impact of land use change on carbon storage and multi-scenario prediction in Hainan Island using InVEST and CA-Markov models

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: July 19, 2024

As a fundamental element of global carbon storage, the storage in terrestrial ecosystem is significant for climate change mitigation. Land use/cover (LUCC) main impact ecosystems’ storage. Evaluating relation between land use and vital lowering emissions. Taking Hainan Island as an example, this paper employs InVEST well CA-Markov models to assess predict how different affects various situations from 2000 2020 2030 2050 on Island. The influence factors, together with driving mechanisms spatial distribution are quantitatively analyzed paper. results demonstrate that, 2020, Island’s net increase built was 605.49 km 2 , representing growth rate 77.05%. Over last 20 years, density have decreased by 5.90 Tg 1.75 Mg/hm respectively. sharp rise mainly makes decline. From 2050, changes expected result differing degrees loss scenarios. In will decline 17.36 Natural Development Scenario (NDS), 13.61 Farmland Protection (FPS), 8.06 Ecological (EPS) compared 2020. EPS can efficiently maintain sequestration capability, but it cannot effectively prevent cropland area loss. Regarding storage’s distribution, generally exhibits pattern high storages low middle surrounding areas. Areas value primarily located central southern mountainous areas, whereas areas lower elevations, encompassing cropland. Geographic detection presented differentiation influenced factors like slope, intensity, DEM, its interaction other significantly strengthened ( p &lt; 0.05). Under strategic framework “carbon peaking neutrality” goal national ecological civilization pilot zone, imperative carefully consider scenarios protection farmland protection, adopt regulation differentiation, implement policies improve stability, which contribute reduction ensure food security.

Language: Английский

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