Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 5, 2024

Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, colder-water retracting. However, future extent implications these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint distribution model occurrence data 107, biomass 61 marine fish from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 2022 northeast Ocean, including Barents Sea. We project overall increases richness declines relative dominance community, generalised species’ ranges across three different scenarios 2050 2100. projected decline capelin practical extirpation polar cod system, two most abundant Sea, drove an reduction at latitudes that not replaced by species. Furthermore, our projections suggest demersal will be high risk extinction end century if no climate refugia available eastern latitudes.

Language: Английский

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Identifying high risk seafloor areas to bottom trawling in Aotearoa New Zealand to support marine spatial management

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 3, 2025

Seafloor species play important ecological roles within marine ecosystems, yet many are vulnerable to the impacts of bottom fishing. Despite known vulnerability seafloor taxa, destructive fishing remains prevalent in parts world given demand for wild-caught seafood. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) increasingly used estimate distribution taxa and possible risk interactions with gears, but most approaches have a limited number taxa. In this study, spatial predictions distributions 207 invertebrate New Zealand waters were combined comprehensive database functional traits related trawling predict areas high vulnerability. addition, estimates redundancy calculated combined, these elucidated ‘high risk’ that covered 182,087 km² (9.5%) study area. The current Marine Management Areas (MMAs) highly fished zones revealed MMAs protect 50% (91,000 km²), less than 1% is areas. This leaves predicted 90,937 (49%) outside protection, some close potentially priority future management. Identifying showcases previously areas, as well highlighting management action. Using different sets approach could also be assess other anthropogenic impacts, improving ecosystem-based by ensuring protection functions at globally significant scales.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of the full set of habitat suitability models for vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa in the South Pacific high seas

Fisheries Management and Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(4)

Published: March 16, 2024

Abstract In the high seas, regional fishery management organisations are required to implement measures prevent significant adverse impacts on vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Our objectives were develop habitat suitability models for use in spatial of bottom fisheries South Pacific and evaluate these existing using independent data from high‐quality seafloor imagery. Presence‐only seven VME indictor taxa developed complement previous modelling. Evaluation withheld indicated mean True Skill Statistic scores 0.44–0.64. Most performed adequately when assessed with taxon presence absence but poor surrogates abundance. We therefore advocate caution presence‐only call more systematically collected abundance models.

Language: Английский

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The Use of Image‐Based Data and Abundance Modelling Approaches for Predicting the Location of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean

Fisheries Management and Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 2, 2024

ABSTRACT Vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) are typically fragile and slow to recover, thereby making them susceptible disturbance, including fishing. In the high seas, United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) requested regional fishery management organisations (RFMOs) implement measures prevent significant adverse impacts on VMEs. Here, we predict spatial abundances of 15 taxa, 13 VME indicator in South Pacific RFMO (SPRFMO) area. Models used seafloor imagery data, an important advance previously developed presence‐only predictions, provide information variation taxa abundance that is crucial for better inferring likely location VMEs, rather than just distribution taxa. Abundance models varied predictive power (mean R 2 ranged 0.02–0.40). Uncertainty estimates model predictions were inform future planning processes conservation Using index concept, outputs published weighted using vulnerability scores, explore how modelled could distribution. Spatial improved previous modelling almost complete suite western portion SPRFMO Convention Nevertheless, improve utility outputs, recommend more high‐quality data be gathered within area (1) validate here with independent from area, (2) update models, if necessary, (3) link ecosystem function (4) validity adapted approach here.

Language: Английский

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Identifying climate refugia for vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa under future climate change scenarios

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 373, P. 122635 - 122635

Published: Dec. 14, 2024

Language: Английский

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Identifying Climate Refugia for Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem Indicator Taxa Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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