Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Naked Oats in China DOI Creative Commons
Z. Yang,

Xujing Yang,

Yuheng Huang

et al.

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 362 - 362

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Naked oats, a significant minor cereal crop in China popular for its nutrient richness, have experienced surge production recent years, fueled by the escalating demand wholesome healthy food. However, dispersed and disorganized cultivation plan of naked oats poses constraint on industrial progression. Considering dual influence cultivation, management techniques, global climate change this study explores potential impacts spatial distribution yield crop. Leveraging CMIP6 models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-ESM2-1) an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 0.5, FC LQ), we simulated climate-suitable zones from 1990 to 2020 forecasted alterations under various emission scenarios 2021 2100. The achieved average accuracy test with high value (AUC 0.945) predicting suitable areas; precipitation seasonality (Coefficient Variation) (bio15, 21.70%) topsoil pH (H2O) (T_PH_H2O, 21.00%) as key factors, both soil properties greater influence. Simulation results showed that climatically area increased all scenarios, largest increase optimal growing ssp126 2030s. was 3.93% 0.77 × 106 km2. also compared data main producing counties Shanxi Province 2022 statistical purposes, found 39 were climatic suitability remarkably zones. agreement rate between planting areas 97.44%. Further, expanded westward, increasing intensity. This reveals current pattern providing scientific rationale addressing through multi-scenario predictions. Our findings implications optimizing layout identifying zones, supporting sustainable agricultural development strategies China.

Language: Английский

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Naked Oats in China DOI Creative Commons
Z. Yang,

Xujing Yang,

Yuheng Huang

et al.

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 362 - 362

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Naked oats, a significant minor cereal crop in China popular for its nutrient richness, have experienced surge production recent years, fueled by the escalating demand wholesome healthy food. However, dispersed and disorganized cultivation plan of naked oats poses constraint on industrial progression. Considering dual influence cultivation, management techniques, global climate change this study explores potential impacts spatial distribution yield crop. Leveraging CMIP6 models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-ESM2-1) an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 0.5, FC LQ), we simulated climate-suitable zones from 1990 to 2020 forecasted alterations under various emission scenarios 2021 2100. The achieved average accuracy test with high value (AUC 0.945) predicting suitable areas; precipitation seasonality (Coefficient Variation) (bio15, 21.70%) topsoil pH (H2O) (T_PH_H2O, 21.00%) as key factors, both soil properties greater influence. Simulation results showed that climatically area increased all scenarios, largest increase optimal growing ssp126 2030s. was 3.93% 0.77 × 106 km2. also compared data main producing counties Shanxi Province 2022 statistical purposes, found 39 were climatic suitability remarkably zones. agreement rate between planting areas 97.44%. Further, expanded westward, increasing intensity. This reveals current pattern providing scientific rationale addressing through multi-scenario predictions. Our findings implications optimizing layout identifying zones, supporting sustainable agricultural development strategies China.

Language: Английский

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