Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe DOI Creative Commons
P. van Thienen,

Herbert ter Maat,

Sija Stofberg

et al.

Cambridge Prisms Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Dec. 27, 2024

Abstract The current generation of climate models has proven very helpful in understanding and projecting anthropogenic change but also shown to be insufficient for studying the interactions tipping elements their impact on overall stability. As a consequence, are mostly absent from projections that commonly used by drinking water industry test resilience systems. There is, however, mounting evidence existence potential (possibly even imminent) activation some these elements. sector necessity, slow-moving as its infrastructure is meant operate many decades practice often does so longer. time scales possible changes associated with element activations may, much shorter. We provide review present simple model investigates magnitudes rapid activations. study consequences supply systems, focusing Europe, argue given deep uncertainty far-reaching consequences, it essential include scenarios decision-making processes sector.

Language: Английский

Anchor Ice Dams and Water–Ice Flows on the Rivers of the Mountains of Southeastern Kazakhstan DOI Open Access
Vitaliy Zhdanov, Viktor Blagovechshenskiy, Akhmetkal Medeu

et al.

Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 81 - 81

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Anchor ice dams and water–ice flows are widespread on the mountain rivers of Southeastern Kazakhstan. Due to mild winter climate, continuous cover is not formed these rivers. During severe cold spells, anchor shore accumulate in various river sections causes water levels rise by 1.5–2 m compared low flows. In event a rapid warming, breaks apart, forming mixed with debris similar mudflows. These move at high speeds can cause significant destruction loss life. Our research aims study characteristics formation conditions Statistical methods were applied analyze data, revealing that thermal greatly influence ice. periods, minimum air temperatures drop below −20 °C, rate cooling reach 10 °C per day. An empirical formula for level based cumulative daily was derived. The dam growth reaches 61 cm/day. Rapid breakage occurs during sharp warming periods. Sometimes this destructive volume flow exceed 10,000 m3, path length 8 km, maximum speed exceeds m/s, depth 5 m, discharge be as 300 m3/s. Random Forest algorithm identified characteristic meteorological formation. most important parameters 5-day sum temperature period gradient period.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Freeze‐Up Ice Jams and Channel Hydraulics Cause Hazardous Open Water Zones Within Winter Ice Cover on the Kuskokwim and Yukon Rivers and Their Tributaries DOI Creative Commons
Christopher D. Arp, Dana R. N. Brown, Allen C. Bondurant

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract Timing and completeness of freeze‐up on northern rivers impact winter travel indicate responses to climate change. Open‐water zones (OWZs) within ice‐covered are hazardous may be increasing in extent persistence. To better understand the distribution, variability, mechanisms OWZs, we selected nine reaches totaling 380 river‐km for remote sensing analysis field studies western Alaska. We initially identified 48 OWZs from November 2022 optical imagery, inventoried their persistence into late interannual consistency over previous years, at a subset measured ice thickness, water depth velocity, physicochemistry. The most consistent locations OWZ formation occurred below sharp bends channel constrictions, whereas associated with river bars eroding banks were more transient. Of 359 early 6 8% persisted winter―all Yukon River mainstem. Although several where anticipated groundwater influence, found no data indication upwelling. Observations jumble upstream many led us examine jam which showed strong correspondence downstream OWZs. hypothesize that jams much slower freeze‐over due restricted transport high turbulence caused by form ice‐affected hydraulics. Future work should focus evaluation this other competing hypothesis both reach network scales predict occurrence relative processes affecting climates.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Application of real-time water temperature prediction system in winter for long-distance water diversion projects DOI Creative Commons
Zepeng Xu, Mengkai Liu, Minghai Huang

et al.

Journal of Hydroinformatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 26(4), P. 915 - 933

Published: March 18, 2024

ABSTRACT Water diversion projects in high-latitude areas often reduce the risk of ice jams winter by reducing water transfer flow, which might cause waste benefits. This paper establishes a real-time prediction system temperature winter, can predict change inputting air forecast data and current hydraulic data. Taking middle route south-to-north project as background, model parameters calibration application testing at different time periods are carried out. The results show that errors for 1 7 days relatively small, four observation stations be controlled within ±0.3 ±0.6 °C, with root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.07 to 0.25 0.12 0.36, respectively. 15-day greatly affected input conditions. first −0.59 0.36 last 8 increase accuracy decreases, −2.42 0.22 °C.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Impact analysis of short-term air temperature changes on water transfer scheduling during the ice period of the Middle Route of the South-to-North water diversion project DOI
Mengkai Liu, Zepeng Xu, Guanghua Guan

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132583 - 132583

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Advances in monitoring and modelling of river ice processes DOI Creative Commons
Prabin Rokaya, Yuntong She, B Newton

et al.

Hydrology Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 54(11), P. v - vi

Published: Nov. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Integrated Hydrological and Hydraulic Modeling for River Freezing Simulation: Impacts of a Changing Climate on the Freeze-Up of the Exploits River in Newfoundland DOI
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Karl‐Erich Lindenschmidt, Paul Barrette

et al.

Environmental Modeling & Assessment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(2), P. 241 - 252

Published: Oct. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate tipping points and their potential impact on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe DOI Creative Commons
P. van Thienen,

Herbert ter Maat,

Sija Stofberg

et al.

Cambridge Prisms Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Dec. 27, 2024

Abstract The current generation of climate models has proven very helpful in understanding and projecting anthropogenic change but also shown to be insufficient for studying the interactions tipping elements their impact on overall stability. As a consequence, are mostly absent from projections that commonly used by drinking water industry test resilience systems. There is, however, mounting evidence existence potential (possibly even imminent) activation some these elements. sector necessity, slow-moving as its infrastructure is meant operate many decades practice often does so longer. time scales possible changes associated with element activations may, much shorter. We provide review present simple model investigates magnitudes rapid activations. study consequences supply systems, focusing Europe, argue given deep uncertainty far-reaching consequences, it essential include scenarios decision-making processes sector.

Language: Английский

Citations

0