Small Commercial Fish Biomass Limits the Catch Potential in the High Seas DOI Creative Commons
Jérôme Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim Scherrer

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract The High Seas, lying beyond the boundaries of nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, cover most ocean surface and host half marine primary production. Yet, a tiny fraction global wild fish catch comes from despite intensifying industrial fishing efforts. paradoxically small could reflect economic barriers to exploiting Seas ‐ such as difficulty cost in remote parts or ecological features resulting biomass commercial (10g–100 kg) relative We use coupled biological‐economic model BOATS estimate contributing factors, comparing observed catches with simulations where: (a) depends on distance shore seafloor depth; (b) catchability depth vertical habitat extent; (c) regions micronutrient limitation have reduced production; (d) trophic transfer energy production demersal food webs water (e) migrates coastal regions. dominant factor is ecological: communities receive much shallow waters but less deep waters, limiting exploitable Seas. Other factors play secondary role, migrations having potentially large uncertain while smaller effects. hosted 25 2.8 0.7 Gt early 20th century, changing 47% 1.5 0.4 during 21st century. Our results stress limited potential provide through capture fisheries.

Language: Английский

A skill assessment framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project DOI Creative Commons
Nina Rynne, Camilla Novaglio, Julia L. Blanchard

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 15, 2024

Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex ecosystem models, forced by projections, that can robustly detect project changes. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modelling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework quantify the ability of member models reproduce past observations guide model improvement. In study, we apply comprehensive subset produce historical catches. We consider suite metrics assess their utility in illustrating models’ observed Our findings reveal improvement performance at both regional (Large Ecosystem) scales from Coupled Phase 5 6 simulation rounds. analysis underscores importance employing easily interpretable, relative estimate capability capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures characterise shifts magnitude these variations between across developed tested here provides first objective baseline ensemble’s reproducing catch scale. This be further improved systematically applied test reliability whole future rounds include more variables like fish biomass or production.

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 DOI Creative Commons
Julia L. Blanchard, Camilla Novaglio, Olivier Maury

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes risks to the services they provide people. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established develop model ensembles projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant Inter‐Sectoral Impact (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly coastal shelf seas where most world's occur. Furthermore, previous impact been limited by a lack global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution processes, uneven capabilities across community dynamically fisheries. These features are needed evaluate how reliably ensemble captures states ‐ crucial step building confidence projections. To address these issues, we developed 2.0 comprising two‐track framework for: (a) evaluation attribution (b) socioeconomic scenario Key advances include forcing, which oceanographic not previously resolved, forcing test effects systematically models. toward detection changing enhanced relevance through increased Our results will help elucidate pathways achieving sustainable development goals.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project DOI Creative Commons
Nina Rynne, Camilla Novaglio, Julia L. Blanchard

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(4)

Published: March 27, 2025

Abstract Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex ecosystem models, forced by projections, that can robustly detect project changes. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modeling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework quantify the ability of member models reproduce past observations guide model improvement. In study, we apply comprehensive subset produce historical catches. We consider suite metrics assess their utility in illustrating models' observed Our findings reveal improvement performance at both regional (Large Ecosystem) scales from Coupled Phase 5 6 simulation rounds. analysis underscores importance employing easily interpretable, relative estimate capability capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures characterize shifts magnitude these variations between across developed tested here provides first objective baseline ensemble's reproducing catch scale. This be further improved systematically applied test reliability whole future rounds include more variables like fish biomass or production.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Small Commercial Fish Biomass Limits the Catch Potential in the High Seas DOI Creative Commons
Jérôme Guiet, Daniele Bianchi, Kim Scherrer

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract The High Seas, lying beyond the boundaries of nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, cover most ocean surface and host half marine primary production. Yet, a tiny fraction global wild fish catch comes from despite intensifying industrial fishing efforts. paradoxically small could reflect economic barriers to exploiting Seas ‐ such as difficulty cost in remote parts or ecological features resulting biomass commercial (10g–100 kg) relative We use coupled biological‐economic model BOATS estimate contributing factors, comparing observed catches with simulations where: (a) depends on distance shore seafloor depth; (b) catchability depth vertical habitat extent; (c) regions micronutrient limitation have reduced production; (d) trophic transfer energy production demersal food webs water (e) migrates coastal regions. dominant factor is ecological: communities receive much shallow waters but less deep waters, limiting exploitable Seas. Other factors play secondary role, migrations having potentially large uncertain while smaller effects. hosted 25 2.8 0.7 Gt early 20th century, changing 47% 1.5 0.4 during 21st century. Our results stress limited potential provide through capture fisheries.

Language: Английский

Citations

0